Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[jaichind]

Any ETA on those by-elections for seats that those Localization Bloc MPs vacated after being expelled?

[jaichind]

4 Localization/Democratic Bloc MPs stripped of their position due to their refusal to take the oath of office (which includes loyalty to PRC).  By-elections now is inevitable.  

They are 姚松炎 (Edward Yiu) who is part of the Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency.   羅冠聰(Nathan Law) who a Localization Bloc MP from HK Island Constituency.  梁國雄 ("Longhair" Leung Kwok-hung) who is a Radical Democratic Bloc MP from New Territories East Constituency.  劉小麗 (Lau Siu Lai) who is a Localization Bloc MP from Kowloon  West Constituency.  

2016 election results for

Hong Kong Island
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  48.80%         3          45.09%         4          
  Pro-Beijing             12.20%         1            9.16%          1          
  Center-Right          27.75%         2           35.93%         3
  Moderates               8.85%          0            

Democratic Bloc       31.72%         2           54.80%         3
   Centrists                2.66%
   Moderates             26.95%        2            43.09%        3
   Radicals                   2.11%       0            11.71%         0

Localism Bloc           19.48%        1




New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1




Kowloon West
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2


Seems to indicate that the Democratic Bloc will win in New Territories East and Establishment Bloc will win  in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon West assuming all three Blocs (Establishment, Democratic, Localism) run a candidate each.  

For the Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency it has traditionally been with Establishment Bloc and Edward Yiu had unique connections in this space that allowed him to win.  Most likely in a by-election this will revert to Establishment bloc.

So if the Establishment Bloc play their cards right they can gain 3 seats out of this round of by-elections.

[jaichind]

Of course Localism Bloc MP 梁頌恆（Sixtus Leung Chung-hang) elected from New Territories East Constituency and 游蕙禎(Yau Wai-ching) elected from  Kowloon  West Constituency have already been expelled already for the same issue. 

Assuming a 6 decisions are upheld on appeal we can see 6 by-elections. 

1 for HK Island
2 for Kowloon West
2 for New Territories East
1 for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency

The 2 for Kowloon West  and 2 for New Territories East seems easy.  Establishment Bloc will win one each and either Democracy or Localism bloc will win the other.

The 1 for HK Island most likely will go Establishment Bloc.  It seems given the polarized nature of the electorate there will be a swing on HK Island from Democratic Bloc to Localism Bloc which will make it hard for the Democratic Bloc to overtake Establishment Bloc which I assume will stay united.  One way to beat back Establishment Bloc in this by-election is for the Democratic Bloc to not contest but back the Localism Bloc candidate.  The main problem with that is that this would mean that the Democratic Bloc will cede the anti-Establishment Bloc space to the Localism Bloc which could mean putting itself into irrelevance.  So must likely this will be a Establishment Bloc pickup.

For the 1 for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency most likely likely outcome is a Establishment Bloc pickup.

So if these expulsions lead to by-elections we are looking at a 4 MP pickup for the Establishment bloc.  The Localism Bloc, as hostile the PRC is toward them, is the electoral gift that keeps on giving to the PRC regime. 

[jaichind]

Sunday is 4 of 6 by-elections need to fill the seats of various pan-Democratic or pan-Localism bloc due to their refusal to swear loyalty to the PRC as part of their swearing ceremony after the 2016 elections.

To some extent the by-elections is not relevant.  In the wake of the disqualification of the 6 pan-Democratic or pan-Localism  lawmakers, the pan-Establishment bloc  last December took advantage of their opponents’ weakened ranks to tighten the legislature’s rule book to curb filibustering since they had a temporary 2/3 majority.  Now even if the opposition gets above 1/3 by winning enough of the by-elections it will take a majority to change the rules back.

But the results can be a referendum if the pan-Establishment bloc can continue to take advantage of the split between the moderate pan-Democratics and radical pro-localism blocs.

The by-elections are

HK Island where it will be pan-Establishment NPP vs a Pan-Democratic independent vs ex Pan-Localism bloc member vs a minor pro-Beijing radical.   If the NPP candidate can capture the Moderate vote the the the split of the opposition vote means NPP wins.

Kowloon West where it will be pan-Establishment DAB vs Pan-Democratic independent vs minor DAB rebel.  Here it is not clear if the  Pan-Democratic independent has any roots here so the DAB candidate could very well win despite the fact that the opposition is united.

New Territories East where it is a free for all.  It is pan-establishment HKFTU/DAB vs a radical pan-Democratic ND vs ex-pan-Democratic bloc Centrist TS vs radical DAB rebel vs Conservative-Centrist PP running as an Independence.  Here the ND should have the upper hand but it seems various pan-Localism bloc voters view the ND candidate as not radical enough and might not turn out which could throw the election to HKFTU/DAB.

Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency.  It is a 1-on-1 battle between two Independents: One pan-Establishment and one pan-Democratic.  Here the pan-Democratic independent is Johannes Zimmerman who is a Dutch Jew and long time opposition politician in HK.  The is the most likely seat the pan-Establishment bloc will take back from the Pan-Democrats.       

[jaichind]

In many ways the Pro-Beijing HK regime made it easier for the pan-Democratic to win this Sunday.  Several radical pro-Localism bloc candidates registered to run but were banned from running due to the view from the election board that they did not accept that HK is part of PRC which is a prerequisite to being a candidate.  Had all these pan-Localism bloc candidates were allowed to run turnout would be higher but the chances of a pan-Establishment bloc sweep would be a lot higher as well. 

[jaichind]

Turnout at 34% as of 7:30PM which is lower than 2016 as expected

 

Turnout for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency at 57.3% which is same as 2016.  If so the Pan-Democrats have chance at keeping this seat.


 

[jaichind]

Prediction.  Pan-Democrats win HK island and Kowloon West.  Pan-Establishments wins New Territories East and the functionary seat.

[jaichind]

20 of the vote counted.  Slight lead for pan-Democrats in all 3 districts and slight lead for pan-establishmentioned for the functionary seat. 

[jaichind]

Around 80% of the voted counted. Pan-Establishment will win the functionary seat.   Pan-Democratics will win HK Island and New Territories East.   Tiny lead for pan-Establishments in Kowloon West.

[jaichind]

With 90% of the vote counted it is

HK Island
Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind                50.9%
Pan-Establishment Bloc NPP           46.9%
Ex-Pan-Localism but now Moderate  1.4%
Pro-Beijing radical                          0.8%

It seems enough Moderates went with the Pan-Democratic Bloc candidate to win



New Territories East
Pan-Democratic Bloc ND                    44.5%
Pan-Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB   37.9%
Center-Right PP independent              15.1%
Ex-Pan-Democratic Bloc now Centrist   1.5%
Anti-Gay Marriage Conservative           0.7%
Pan-Establishment rebel                      0.4%

Pan-Establishment bloc should have won this.   I expected Center-Right tactical voting for the pro-Beijing HKFTU candidate but it seems a lot of those votes went to PP.  It seems the Center-Right vote could not fuse around the pro-Beijing HKFTU candidate and threw the race to the generally united Pan-Democratic Bloc.



Kowloon West
Pan-Establishment Bloc DAB                  49.9%
Pro Pan-Democratic Bloc independent     48.7%
Pan-Establishment Bloc rebel                   1.3%

If the Pan-Establishment Bloc holds on to their lead it would be a historic win since at the district  LegCo level the Pan-Establishment Bloc has never won a 1-on-1 battle against the Pan-Democratic Bloc.  The Pan-Democratic Bloc independent not having much roots is part of the reason.
 


Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency
Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independent    55.9%
Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent        44.1%

This is mostly reversion to the mean as the Establishment Bloc wins most of the  functional constituency races anyway.  And a lesson for the Pan-Democratic Bloc: Do not nominate a non-Chinese where the voting population is at least 95% Chinese.

[jaichind]

New Territories East  done
Pan-Democratic Bloc ND                    44.6%  (elected)
Pan-Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB   37.1%
Center-Right PP independent              15.7%
Ex-Pan-Democratic Bloc now Centrist   1.5%
Anti-Gay Marriage Conservative           0.7%
Pan-Establishment rebel                      0.4%

Again.  Inability of the various Pan-Establishment voting blocs (Economic Center-Right, Conservative, Pro-Beijing) to fuse around the official HKFTU/DAB candidate failed to take a seat where the Pan-Localism Bloc turnout was low given their apathy toward the Pan-Democratic Bloc ND candidate.  This one was winnable and got away from the Pan-Establishment bloc.


In 2016 and 2012 New Territories East results were

                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3           
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

[jaichind]

Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape functional constituency done
Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independent    55.5%
Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent        44.5%

Back in 2016 it was Pro-Pan-Democratic Bloc independent 43.4% winning over two Pro-Pan-Establishment Bloc independents.  This time the Pan-Establishment Bloc consolidated around one candidate and won.   

[jaichind]

HK Island done
Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind                50.7%
Pan-Establishment Bloc NPP           47.2%
Ex-Pan-Localism but now Moderate  1.3%
Pro-Beijing radical                          0.8%

Given the lower Pan-Localism turnout for the Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind to win some of the pro-Establishment Bloc Moderate vote from 2016 must have gone over to the Pro-Democratic Bloc Ind.  This one is a solid win for the Pan-Democratic to consolidate the Moderate and Radical anti-Establishment Bloc vote. 

Back in 2016 and 2012 it was
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  48.80%         3          45.09%         4           
  Pro-Beijing             12.20%         1            9.16%          1           
  Center-Right          27.75%         2           35.93%         3
  Moderates               8.85%          0           

Democratic Bloc       31.72%         2           54.80%         3
   Centrists                2.66%
   Moderates             26.95%        2            43.09%        3
   Radicals                   2.11%       0            11.71%         0

Localism Bloc           19.48%        1

[jaichind]

Kowloon West recount in progress.  The result must be within 1%

[jaichind]

Kowloon West results to be out soon.  I am pretty sure the pan-Establishment Bloc takes it.

[jaichind]

Kowloon West done
Pan-Establishment Bloc DAB                  49.9%
Pro Pan-Democratic Bloc independent     48.8%
Pan-Establishment Bloc rebel                   1.3%

A historic victory for the Pan-Establishment Bloc where it finally beat the Pan-Democratic Bloc 1-on-1 in a LegCo district election.  Kowloon West was historically been very weak for the Pan-Establishment Bloc but has shifted toward to the Pan-Establishment Bloc due to impact of the rise of Pan-Localism Bloc.  In this race a poor candidate fit as well as lower Pan-Localism Bloc turnout pushed the Pan-Establishment Bloc candidate over the top. 

In 2016 and 2012 it was

                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2

The rise of the Pan-Establishment Bloc from 2012 to 2018 has be quite dramatic and unexpected.   A poor Pan-Democratic Bloc candidate fit for this district also played a role.

[jaichind]

With this by-election the anti-Establishment Bloc failed to recapture its veto power over certain motions  by the Establishment Bloc.  There are 70 seats in LegCo.  35 District seats and 35 Functional seats.  Certain motions require majority in both types of seats.  Since the Establishment Bloc dominates the functional seats the anti-Establishment forces veto are in getting a majority in the District seats.  The 2012  Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in District seats was 17-18.  In 2016 that Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in Districts seats became 16-19 due to higher turnout and poor coordination within the Establishment bloc. 

But due to some anti-Establishment bloc lawmakers putting in extra items in their swearing in oaths 6 of them were disqualified.  5 out of the 6 were in District seats and 1 in a functional seat.  This gave the  Establishment Bloc a 16-14 majority right away in the District seats.   3 District and 1 functional seat MPs disqualification were upheld on appeal so those 4 went to by-elections.  The other 2 District MP disqualification are still on appeal.  So with the Establishment bloc  winning 1 out of the 3 District by-election (as well as the 1 functional seat by-election) the  Establishment/Anti-Establishment breakdown in Districts seats becomes 17-16 so the Establishment bloc keeps its majority in District seats.  If  2 District MP disqualifications which are still on appeal are upheld then in the next by-election the anti-Establishment bloc forces must win both seats to get to a 17-18  Establishment/Anti-Establishment balance.  If they split the 2 seats then it stays a 18-17  Establishment majority.

[jaichind]

The pro-Beijing administration actions to block pro-HK Independence/self-determination candidates most likely prevented an Establishment bloc sweep of the by-elections.   

In HK Island the Localism Bloc MP Nathan Law who was ejected from the LegCo had his girlfriend Agnes Chow run for his old seat and was accepted as the anti-Establishment united from candidate.  Given her pro-independence/self-determination views, Agnes Chow was turned down as a candidate and the anti-Establishment front had to nominated a more moderate candidate.  If Agnes Chow had run instead and given how close the election was in HK Island, the result would have been at best 50/50 given Agnes Chow's views would have driven the Moderates toward the Establishment Bloc candidate even as the Localism Bloc turnout would increase.

In New Territories East  the anti-Establishment front failed to agree on a common candidate.   So in addition to the Pan-Democratic Bloc ND candidate, two Localism Bloc candidates registered to run.  Had them been allowed to run, Localism Bloc turnout would have increased but the split in the anti-Establishment vote would have mirrored the split in the Establishment vote and threw the election to  Establishment Bloc  HKFTU/DAB candidate.

To some extend priorities of the PRC and Establishment Bloc are similar but not the same.  The PRC prioritizes the swashing of all HK independence discourse over winning elections.  The Establishment Bloc does not mind such discourse as much since it merely drives the moderate voters toward them and is likely to cause a split in the anti-Establishment Bloc vote.  In this round PRC priorities won out   and prevented a clean sweep by the Establishment Bloc.  Of course in the end even the result as it is  was seen as a setback for the anti-Establishment Bloc  forces.  It just could have been far worse had the PRC harmonized its goals with the electoral interests of the Establishment Bloc forces. 

[jaichind]

I spent a few months in HK back in the 1990s so I know something about the various HK Island neighborhoods.  Looking at the HK Island election results it seems that the Democratic Bloc Independent did well in the large swath of middle class neighborhoods while the Establishment Bloc NPP did well in high end as well as working class neighborhoods.  The economic elite in HK clearly aligns with the PRC so that they vote Establishment Bloc make sense.  The working class vote for Establishment Bloc is more about the residue pro-CCP labor union support for pro-Beijing parties which are part of the Establishment Bloc, some Chinese nationalist tendencies in the HK working class and of course the fact that the current HK regime controls public housing subsides that the working class often depend on.

[jaichind]

By election coming up 11/25 for Kowloon West.  Localism Bloc MP 劉小麗(Lau Siu-lai) was disqualified due to the oath taking controversy so there is a by-election for her seat with all of  Kowloon West voting. Lau registered to run but was disqualified for not accepting PRC sovereignty over HK.

As it is the candidates are
1) Pro-Beijing radical
2) Localism Bloc radical
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan (陳凱欣)

Back in 2016 the  Kowloon West were

Kowloon West
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  42.08%         2           37.28%         2          
  Pro-Beijing               0.34%         0                      
  Center-Right          36.91%         2           37.28%         2
  Moderates               4.83%          0            

Democratic Bloc       29.44%         2           62.71%         3
   Centrists                
   Moderates             26.44%        2            46.09%        2
   Radicals                   3.00%        0           16.62%         1

Localism Bloc           28.49%        2

Kowloon West used to be the Establishment Bloc weakest area but has been trending  Establishment Bloc.  Pro-Localism Bloc paper Passion Times had a recent poll which has it

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            4.3%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         3.3%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   30.0%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                         21.7%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             42.0%

Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee leads overall for the voters called all over HK but for residents in  Kowloon West the Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan (陳凱欣) is well ahead.  The election will really depend on tactical voting by the 3 weaker candidates supporters.

[jaichind]

By-election for Kowloon West. this Sunday.

The current Passion Times poll for voters living in Kowloon West has it at

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            0.8%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         0.0%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   29.0%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                         25.5%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             45.0%


It seems unless there are massive tactical voting within the  Democratic Bloc  and Localism Bloc  the Establishment Bloc  is looking at another by-election pickup.

[jaichind]

By-election in Kowloon West done with turnout of 44%.  Establishment Bloc candidate wins with new majority of the vote

1) Pro-Beijing radical                                                                            0.77%
2) Localism Bloc radical                                                                         0.61%
3) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction Labor Party candidate Lee(李卓人)   43.28%
4) Democratic Bloc Moderate faction ADPL Fung(馮檢基)                           5.82%
5) Establishment Bloc Center Right faction backed  Chan(陳凱欣)             49.52%

On thing that Democratic Bloc now has to consider now that they allowed the Establishment Bloc to win majority or near majority in 2 by-elections is: Has the radicalism of the Localism Bloc now created a almost near majority for the Establishment Bloc?   Last round of elections shows that the Establishment Bloc has nearly 45% of the vote.  I think there an argument that this level has gone up since 2016.

[jaichind]

Voting for 18 District Councils. Obviously the recent riots would be a critical issue.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/22/asia/hong-kong-protests-district-council-elections-intl-hnk/index.html

Incorrectly gives the results of 2011 and 2015 to be

                                 2011              2015
Pan-Establishment        180               198
Pan-Democratic              83               100
Others                         149               133

If you group the various independents by de facto lean it is really

                                 2011              2015
Pan-Establishment        299               298
Pan-Democratic            103               126
Others                           10                  7

As most independents lean Pan-Establishment.  In 2015 the Pan-Establishment bloc captured control  of 17 out of 18 Councils and had a NOC for the last one.

This time around the Pan-Democratic bloc will clearly make gains.  I sort of suspect they will still not overtake the Pan-Establishment in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Generally pro-Democratic bloc pollster HKPOP poll

https://www.pori.hk/s/6th_round.pdf

Trust of HK government        Yes/No/Maybe   18.5/64.8/15.8
Trust of Central government  Yes/No/Maybe   25.7/61.6/10.6
Trust of Police                      Yes/No/Maybe   27.3/63.1/8.5

Approval of 1 Country 2 Systems    Approve/Disapprove/Maybe   27.6/56.1/14.3

Protests much be peaceful       Yes/No/Maybe   64.9/19.1/15.2
Aggressive Protests justified?   Yes/No/Maybe   56.7/32.0/9.7
Protest going to far                 Yes/No/Maybe   36.6/43.6/18.8
Police to aggressive                Yes/No/Maybe    65.1/26.6/7.7

How should protester react to police aggression

If protesters who gets violent should be arrested     30.1
Protester can act in self defense                             53.0
Protesters should attack police                               12.5

Are protesters blocking roads acceptable Yes/No/Maybe   47.7/41.2/9.8


If these are the numbers then the Pro-Establishment bloc will get a drubbing this Sunday.  The only way out is to run against protester violence and vandalism and then hope the stronger local roots of the Pro-Establishment bloc candidates can carry them to beat back a Pan-Democratic majority at the Council level. 

Back in 2003 due to the imposition of the New Security Law there were large scale demonstrations in HK and resulted in a Pan-Democratic majority in the 2003 Council elections.  The Pan-Establishment Bloc have since slowed took back ground to form large majorities in the 2011 and 2015 elections.  Unless the Pan-Establishment bloc  can get a massive turnout of their supporters to match the clear Pan-Democratic bloc turnout it is possible that 2003 might be repeated.

[jaichind]

In about 30-40 seats the Pan-Democratic bloc have Plan A and Plan B candidates.  Namely there are fears that some candidates might get rejected so the Pan-Democratic bloc had 2 candidates run (a Plan A and a Plan B candidate).  If the Plan A candidate gets rejected by the election commission then the Plan B candidate will be the Pan-Democratic bloc candidate.  In most cases both Plan A and Plan B candidate have been approved so the Pan-Democratic bloc campaign material asks voters to vote for the Plan A candidate with the Plan B candidate not campaigning.