Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[Joseph Cao]

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.

I believe he still retains his seat in the LegCo, though?

[jaichind]

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.

I believe he still retains his seat in the LegCo, though?

Correct.  And I think he will end up winning re-election next year.

[Former President tack50]

Isn't LegCo only 50% elected with the other using a corporativist type of election?

No way the Chinese let the pro-democracy camp ever be in control of Hong Kong

[jaichind]

Isn't LegCo only 50% elected with the other using a corporativist type of election?

No way the Chinese let the pro-democracy camp ever be in control of Hong Kong

35 Multi-member districts, 5 PR seats, 30 functional seats.

If today's vote were transplanted into Legco it should be something like:

35 Multi-member districts I figure will go 21-14 in favor of Pan-Democratic bloc.  5 PR will got 3-2 in favor of Pan-Democratic bloc, 30 functional seats would be 21-9 in favor of Pan-Establishment bloc. This should produce:  37-33 in favor of Pan-Establishment.

The reality is the the Pan-Democratic bloc has been making inroads into the 30 functional seats so the gerrymander is not what it used to be but enough to keep the Pan-Establishment bloc in the majority. 

And of course there is the issue that next year it is not clear the Pan-Democratic bloc will hold or splinter into Moderates, Radicals and Localism like in 2016.

[jaichind]

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 193 Pan-Establishment 15 Independent 1 (1 Independent seems like to have pan-Establishment lean)   

[urutzizu]

Isn't LegCo only 50% elected with the other using a corporativist type of election?

No way the Chinese let the pro-democracy camp ever be in control of Hong Kong

As jaiChind said (I had typed this already before i saw his post), 40 Seats are elected by common people while 30 are elected by special interest groups. So theoretically the pro-democrats could win a majority, the issue is that the 40 direct seats are elected by what is in name a proportional system (in reality a comical SNTV system) that insures that there will always be a significant minority of direct seats going to the pro-peking camp that combine with the vast majority 30 other seats (the law and education special interest groups do elect pro-democrats) to a majority, despite only winning a minority of the vote.  

The district councils however are elected by FPTP, which is why the pan-democrats will dominate. If LegGo used FPTP for the elected seats (like under Colonial Rule) they could outvote and win control of the LegCO.

Also I wonder if the 27 exofficio seats, that are always pro-bejing could prevent the pan-democrats from taking control in all councils (like Islands)?

And as to Junius Ho, he is a very interesting figure. While being rabidly anti-protester/and anti-splittist, he is one of the very few in the pro-peking camp to be pro-tiannmen protesters. (he was the only pro-peking legislator to vote to commemorate them). Perhaps because he is less pro-CCP and more (KMT-style) chinese nationalist (the 1989 Protesters were nationalist), like, incidentally, Jaichind?  

[Joseph Cao]

With the tenth district (Eastern District) flipping, the pro-democracy bloc now holds a majority of district councils.
I could see the final balance being 16–2 with Kwun Tong and Kowloon City remaining Pan–Establishment, but no others.

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of the special interest electorates, any chance the democrats could make inroads into some of those, somehow? I imaigne they must be fervently pro-Beijing for a ton of reasons but still, flipping a couple seems like the only way the pro-democrats would  be in control. (theoretically anyways, Bejing would crack down long before that)

The alternative seems to be basically running the table with the directly elected seats (going by Jachind's prediction, they'd need a 25-5 result assuming no further flips in the special interest seats or a 4-1 in the PR seats).

[jaichind]

Speaking of the special interest electorates, any chance the democrats could make inroads into some of those, somehow? I imaigne they must be fervently pro-Beijing for a ton of reasons but still, flipping a couple seems like the only way the pro-democrats would  be in control. (theoretically anyways, Bejing would crack down long before that)

The alternative seems to be basically running the table with the directly elected seats (going by Jachind's prediction, they'd need a 25-5 result assuming no further flips in the special interest seats or a 4-1 in the PR seats).

Totally.  The functional constituencies still involve an electorate although a small electorate.  The pan-Democratic bloc share of the 30 seats have been going up slowly from something like 3-4 to
 6-7 recently.   I think the will make further progress and get to 9 seats next time and frankly it could be 10.  But like I said today's election might represent some sort of "Peak Pan-Democratic bloc" so they are more likely to lose ground in 2020 than gain ground.   

[jaichind]

And as to Junius Ho, he is a very interesting figure. While being rabidly anti-protester/and anti-splittist, he is one of the very few in the pro-peking camp to be pro-tiannmen protesters. (he was the only pro-peking legislator to vote to commemorate them). Perhaps because he is less pro-CCP and more (KMT-style) chinese nationalist (the 1989 Protesters were nationalist), like, incidentally, Jaichind?  

He is an extreme Chinese nationalist like I am.  His extreme Chinese nationalism is more socially Conservative versus my LaoTze-Libertarian brand of extreme Chinese  nationalism. For him and me being for Beijing (he is more consistent in his pro-Beijing position and I am more tactical) is more of the consequence of extreme Chinese nationalism than some core feature.  In fact a small part of the Pan-Localism bloc in HK are also extreme Chinese nationalist but more based on Han traditionalism.  All things equal the Chinese nationalist forces do align with the Pan-Establishment bloc. 

[jaichind]

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 244 Pan-Establishment 25 Independent 1 (1 Independent seems like to have pan-Establishment lean)     The 10 to 1 ratio is mostly intact.  The Pan-Establishment bloc will gain a bit more in the rest of the seats but this general ratio is clear.

[ON Progressive]

Junius Ho is out. He is one of the most outspoken and controversial pro-Peking politicans, who has said that pro-independence people should be "killed mercilessly", and was shaking hands with white-clad men on the night a mob attacked protesters and other passengers in Yuen Long station. He was stabbed with a knife by rioters a few weeks ago. He lost his re-election bid in the Lok Tsui constituency in Tuen Mun to the Democratic Party’s Lo Chun-yu.

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.

How libertarian of you!

[urutzizu]

Junius Ho is out. He is one of the most outspoken and controversial pro-Peking politicans, who has said that pro-independence people should be "killed mercilessly", and was shaking hands with white-clad men on the night a mob attacked protesters and other passengers in Yuen Long station. He was stabbed with a knife by rioters a few weeks ago. He lost his re-election bid in the Lok Tsui constituency in Tuen Mun to the Democratic Party’s Lo Chun-yu.

Too bad as I rather like him.  Of course he will be back.  He is fairly polarizing so it is not surprise that he will lose in a FPTP system.  He will be back next year in LEGCO election where is will most likely be elected in a multi-member district election.

How libertarian of you!

To be fair there isnt much ideological consistency with many people on Hong Kong issue. Just like the "leftists" supporting a oligarchy-controlled Government (and that is literally what the Curry Lamb Government is) against a actual peoples revolution. And the same with certain american right-wingers on the other side of the debate. But I digress.

To get back on topic the Pro-Peking Camp could win just 2/10 elected Seats in Islands and still control the council due to the ex-officio members. In one outstanding seat there are two pro-dem Candidates. So that would be a  very questionable outcome.

[jaichind]

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 274 Pan-Establishment 30 Independent 1 (1 Independent seems like to have pan-Establishment lean)     

The Pan-Establishments bloc could win the Kowloon City District Council and have a chance in Wan Chai District (where I stay when I make my business trips to HK) and the Pan-Democratic Bloc should sweep the rest.

[jaichind]

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 336 Pan-Establishment 37 Independent 4 (all 4 Independent seems like to have pan-Establishment lean)     

My back-of-the-envelope vote share calculation gives Pan-Democratic 59% Pan-Establishment 39% which looks a lot like 2008 LegCo (59.50% vs 39.75%), 2004 LegCo (62.44% vs 37.40%), and 2000 LegCo (60.56% vs 34.94%).  Once we accept that this election will become a HK wide election with the protests as the main topic vs a low turnout local election about local issue I would argue that Pan-Establishment at 39% is not bad given the massive turnout.   

What this election tells us is that the Pan-Democratic vs Pan-Establishment  balance have moved from 55/45 to 60/40 like in the pre-2012 era and that a massive Pan-Democratic mobilization was mostly matched by the Pan-Establishment mobilization with this sort of unprecedented turnout.

[jaichind]

The collapse of the Pan-Establishment was the most extreme in middle and lower middle class areas.  The Pan-Establishment vote had much more moderate shift in the working class and ultra-wealthy areas. 

This has a lot to do with the rapid rise of the Mainland China up the economic ladder the last 20 years.  The economic integration of HK with the rest of the Mainland used to hurt HK light industry and its lower income working class areas.  But these days it is the HK middle class that is taking on the brunt of the economic surge of the PRC, especially in services.   It is only in the most advanced part of HK are they still have an economic competitive advantage over the advanced parts of the Mainland.

This is the core issue of the crisis of identity of the City of HK and Province of Taiwan.  Both had the identity of a superior version of Mainland China.  The economic surge of the PRC the last 20 years has mostly removed the economic basis of the feeling of superiority except for the ultra economic elite of both societies.  With their identity removed the large lower middle and middle classes are looking for alternative sources of identify  which they mainly seek in abstract values and ideals versus the physical which forms the basis of a new anti-PRC politics based on a ideological division away from debates over which system produce economic success. 

[jaichind]

It is now Pan-Democratic bloc 364 Pan-Establishment 47 Independent 5 (4 seem to be pro-Establishment and 1 seems to be pro-Democratic).  So the ratio of seats between the two blocs are around 7:1. 

[urutzizu]

Pan-democrats will have won a majority of elected seats on every single Council, and a Majority of Seats in all Councils except Islands.

It seems they have won 7/10 elected Seats on Islands council, but due to the the fact that 8/18 Council Seats are unelected rural exofficio members, decidedly pro-establishment, the pan-establishment will hold Islands Council. But the Exofficio members do not hold enough of a sway in the other councils to deprive the pan-democrats of a majority (there are none in Kowloon because its a urban district). Islands by far has the highest proportion of nonelected steats of any council.

[jaichind]

The  Pan-Democratic bloc did a good job consolidating their vote.  Pretty much all Plan B candidates are in the low single digits.  They won a well deserved victory with a massive mobilization and consolidation of their vote.   

[urutzizu]

My back-of-the-envelope vote share calculation gives Pan-Democratic 59% Pan-Establishment 39% which looks a lot like 2008 LegCo (59.50% vs 39.75%), 2004 LegCo (62.44% vs 37.40%), and 2000 LegCo (60.56% vs 34.94%).  Once we accept that this election will become a HK wide election with the protests as the main topic vs a low turnout local election about local issue I would argue that Pan-Establishment at 39% is not bad given the massive turnout.

The vote share is according to this results site: https://dce2019.thestandnews.com/
1,420,749 Votes (57%) Pan-Democratic
1,021,738 Votes (41%) Pan Establishment

Which would mean that it is very close to the 2016 LegCo elections. The electoral system and the massive mobilization and consolidation of the pan-democratic vote may have made the victory appear greater then it actually was (and certainly spun the foreign media coverage in that regard too).

[jaichind]

My back-of-the-envelope vote share calculation gives Pan-Democratic 59% Pan-Establishment 39% which looks a lot like 2008 LegCo (59.50% vs 39.75%), 2004 LegCo (62.44% vs 37.40%), and 2000 LegCo (60.56% vs 34.94%).  Once we accept that this election will become a HK wide election with the protests as the main topic vs a low turnout local election about local issue I would argue that Pan-Establishment at 39% is not bad given the massive turnout.

The vote share is according to this results site: https://dce2019.thestandnews.com/
1,420,749 Votes (57%) Pan-Democratic
1,021,738 Votes (41%) Pan Establishment

Which would mean that it is very close to the 2016 LegCo elections. The electoral system and the massive mobilization and consolidation of the pan-democratic vote may have made the victory appear greater then it actually was (and certainly spun the foreign media coverage in that regard too).

I will actually made a reverse argument.  The seat landslide might also project a message "well, at least the CCP did not get involved and rig the election."  While the CCP is too smart to try to rig the election I am convinced the CCP did get involved.  I am pretty certain the CCP have infiltrated the radical fringe of the protesters and played a role in the HKUST siege last week.  I suspect had the elections be held 10 days before today the result would have been even worse for the Pan-Establishment bloc.  The siege most likely helped the Pan-Establishment bloc push up their turnout.

As someone that is a KMT supporter, I know who took us down in the late 1940s and how they did it.  Unless the CCP has gotten rusty and soft over the last couple of decades I am sure they will be up to their old tricks here.

[jaichind]

HSI up 1.8% on market open on election news.  I assume market is hoping a decisive Pan-Democratic bloc victory will mean that the protests will die down as their demands will be channeled into existing political structures and the HK administration will be pressured into some sort of compromise. 

[Joseph Cao]

I will actually made a reverse argument.  The seat landslide might also project a message "well, at least the CCP did not get involved and rig the election."  While the CCP is too smart to try to rig the election I am convinced the CCP did get involved.  I am pretty certain the CCP have infiltrated the radical fringe of the protesters and played a role in the HKUST siege last week.  I suspect had the elections be held 10 days before today the result would have been even worse for the Pan-Establishment bloc.  The siege most likely helped the Pan-Establishment bloc push up their turnout.

As someone that is a KMT supporter, I know who took us down in the late 1940s and how they did it.  Unless the CCP has gotten rusty and soft over the last couple of decades I am sure they will be up to their old tricks here.

*The Polytechnic University siege.

But your basic point stands and yes, the results would have been even more lopsided without the events of the past two weeks.

[jaichind]

I will actually made a reverse argument.  The seat landslide might also project a message "well, at least the CCP did not get involved and rig the election."  While the CCP is too smart to try to rig the election I am convinced the CCP did get involved.  I am pretty certain the CCP have infiltrated the radical fringe of the protesters and played a role in the HKUST siege last week.  I suspect had the elections be held 10 days before today the result would have been even worse for the Pan-Establishment bloc.  The siege most likely helped the Pan-Establishment bloc push up their turnout.

As someone that is a KMT supporter, I know who took us down in the late 1940s and how they did it.  Unless the CCP has gotten rusty and soft over the last couple of decades I am sure they will be up to their old tricks here.

*The Polytechnic University siege.

But your basic point stands and yes, the results would have been even more lopsided without the events of the past two weeks.

Yes.  Typo. Thanks for correction.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1198835422337667072?s=20

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1198649203095982081?s=20

This is absolutely beautiful. Very inspiring to see that somewhere, protesting against oppression can actually lead a massive movement of voters to act and vote for change. Unfourtunately, against a gigantic monster like China I'm not sure it'll help, but I admire the people of Hong Kong for their will and passion.