Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't see how any poll taken in Hong Kong right now on can be considered accurate.  There are bound to be far too many people afraid to speak their mind if they have an opinion not in accord with the Beijing authorities for it to be accurate. I certainly wouldn't be stupid enough to think my response would remain anonymous if the Beijing authorities wanted to know it. That said, there's little point in voting opposite to Beijing's wishes right now as it won't accomplish anything, so Beijing's sycophants will likely do better than they have in past elections. Unfortunately, those in Hong Kong who are pro-China but anti-CPC have no desirable options right now.

[jaichind]

I don't see how any poll taken in Hong Kong right now on can be considered accurate.  There are bound to be far too many people afraid to speak their mind if they have an opinion not in accord with the Beijing authorities for it to be accurate. I certainly wouldn't be stupid enough to think my response would remain anonymous if the Beijing authorities wanted to know it. That said, there's little point in voting opposite to Beijing's wishes right now as it won't accomplish anything, so Beijing's sycophants will likely do better than they have in past elections. Unfortunately, those in Hong Kong who are pro-China but anti-CPC have no desirable options right now.

You make a good point.  On the other hand Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute is pretty much as Anti-Establishment as they come.  HK-PORI was very aligned with the Democratic Bloc for years and was used by the  Democratic Bloc to do polling in the 2016 LogCo elections to help them with tactical voting instructions as it became apparent that the Anti-Establishment blocs have over-nominated.  The HK-PORI polls done in close cooperation with the Democratic bloc parties saved them from losing seats to the Establishment bloc through vote splitting. 

[MaxQue]

I don't see how any poll taken in Hong Kong right now on can be considered accurate.  There are bound to be far too many people afraid to speak their mind if they have an opinion not in accord with the Beijing authorities for it to be accurate. I certainly wouldn't be stupid enough to think my response would remain anonymous if the Beijing authorities wanted to know it. That said, there's little point in voting opposite to Beijing's wishes right now as it won't accomplish anything, so Beijing's sycophants will likely do better than they have in past elections. Unfortunately, those in Hong Kong who are pro-China but anti-CPC have no desirable options right now.

You make a good point.  On the other hand Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute is pretty much as Anti-Establishment as they come.  HK-PORI was very aligned with the Democratic Bloc for years and was used by the  Democratic Bloc to do polling in the 2016 LogCo elections to help them with tactical voting instructions as it became apparent that the Anti-Establishment blocs have over-nominated.  The HK-PORI polls done in close cooperation with the Democratic bloc parties saved them from losing seats to the Establishment bloc through vote splitting. 

How long until Emperor Winnie the Pooh shuts them down?

[jaichind]

How long until Emperor Winnie the Pooh shuts them down?

Depends on if they cross certain red lines. The HK government already came out with guidelines based on the new security law.  Any appeals to HK or Taiwan Independence crosses the red line.  光復香港，時代革命(Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times) could be interpreted as change of sovereignty has also been ruled as crossing the red line.  On the other hand, flying the ROC flag which means rejecting the CCP but accepting the idea of a unified sovereign China has been ruled as not crossing the red line. Also calling for the resignation Carrie Lam, independent investigations into police brutality, demanding universal suffrage etc etc has been ruled as not crossing the red line since the issue of sovereignty is not at stake.  So pretty much anything someone from the  Democratic Moderate bloc candidate would demand would pretty much have zero chance of crossing the red line but not so for someone from the Democratic Radical bloc or Localism bloc.  All things equal HK-PORI  has been historically been aligned with the Democratic Moderate bloc ergo most likely they will not do anything that would get them shut down.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't see how any poll taken in Hong Kong right now on can be considered accurate.  There are bound to be far too many people afraid to speak their mind if they have an opinion not in accord with the Beijing authorities for it to be accurate. I certainly wouldn't be stupid enough to think my response would remain anonymous if the Beijing authorities wanted to know it. That said, there's little point in voting opposite to Beijing's wishes right now as it won't accomplish anything, so Beijing's sycophants will likely do better than they have in past elections. Unfortunately, those in Hong Kong who are pro-China but anti-CPC have no desirable options right now.

You make a good point.  On the other hand Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute is pretty much as Anti-Establishment as they come.  HK-PORI was very aligned with the Democratic Bloc for years and was used by the  Democratic Bloc to do polling in the 2016 LogCo elections to help them with tactical voting instructions as it became apparent that the Anti-Establishment blocs have over-nominated.  The HK-PORI polls done in close cooperation with the Democratic bloc parties saved them from losing seats to the Establishment bloc through vote splitting. 

Even if people trust HK-PORI, under the current circumstances is it reasonable to trust that someone calling you and saying they are polling for HK-PORI actually is? The main reason for distrusting the accuracy of Hong Kong polling is not any belief that the polling organization is cooking the results. It's that under current conditions people can't be trusted to give honest answers to pollsters.

[jaichind]

Even if people trust HK-PORI, under the current circumstances is it reasonable to trust that someone calling you and saying they are polling for HK-PORI actually is? The main reason for distrusting the accuracy of Hong Kong polling is not any belief that the polling organization is cooking the results. It's that under current conditions people can't be trusted to give honest answers to pollsters.

That is certainly one reasonable way to read the situation.  On the other hand support for HK Independence in the HK-PORI poll rose from 17% in Dec 2019 to 21% in Jun 2020.  So we can clearly see that the radical anti-Establishment vote does not seem to be intimidated into holding back their position.  What is possible is the moderate anti-Establishment voter has become more pensive.  Of course the point of a poll is to try to predict election results.  If the moderate anti-Establishment voter has become more pensive it could also translate into lower turnout in the Sept 2020 election which would make the poll result quite relevent.

[jaichind]

Lastest 中文大學 (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) poll on partisan identities



                 Establishment    Centrist     Democratic      Localism
2019 May         10.6              50.0            30.9                6.9
2019 Oct           6.0               35.8            44.5              13.6
2020 June        10.6               38.7           30.9              19.8

Peak Anti-Establishment seems to be back in Oct 2019 even as Localism is eating into the Democratic bloc base.

By education


Shows that higher educated population are more radical in their Anti-Establishment views

Same poll going back to Mar 2016 has



which allows us to construct

                 Establishment    Centrist     Democratic      Localism
2016 Mar          13.7              43.6            34.4               8.4                  
2019 May         10.6              50.0            30.9                6.9
2019 Oct           6.0               35.8            44.5              13.6
2020 June        10.6               38.7           30.9              19.8

All things equal the Centrist vote leans Establishment.  What we can see here is the Anti-Establishment bloc will get a swing relative to 2016 but not at the scale they accomplished back in Nov 2019 local elections.   On the flip side it seems 2018 and early 2019 was peak  Establishment bloc support where in late 2018 the Establishment bloc was even able to win a LEGCO by-election 1-on-1 versus an anti-Establishment candidate which is unprecedented

[urutzizu]

RTHK reports that the Government is considering using emergency powers to delay the election, because of the Virus resurgence in the City. More about that here, but basically, Virus cases seeded from small clusters have exploded, Hong Kong's hospitals are close to being overwhelmed, and there is little hope from Officials that the outbreak will be brought under control by September. Conventional Wisdom would suggest the Government is screwed, and the Population is not really adhering to Government mandates on social distance anymore. Irony is that the cause for this is that Hong Kong decided to take the Western path of Virus Suppression and not the Chinese path of elimination, partly because Hong Kong's political system does not have the tools for it (yet). But alas things are what they are, and the pro-Beijing bloc will have every incentive to try and push the election back and the pan-democrats will try to fight it. Will end up in court probably.

[jaichind]

RTHK reports that the Government is considering using emergency powers to delay the election, because of the Virus resurgence in the City. More about that here, but basically, Virus cases seeded from small clusters have exploded, Hong Kong's hospitals are close to being overwhelmed, and there is little hope from Officials that the outbreak will be brought under control by September. Conventional Wisdom would suggest the Government is screwed, and the Population is not really adhering to Government mandates on social distance anymore. Irony is that the cause for this is that Hong Kong decided to take the Western path of Virus Suppression and not the Chinese path of elimination, partly because Hong Kong's political system does not have the tools for it (yet). But alas things are what they are, and the pro-Beijing bloc will have every incentive to try and push the election back and the pan-democrats will try to fight it. Will end up in court probably.

This makes no sense.  The number of deaths in HK is basically nil.  in India random samples in Delhi implies that around 15% of the population has the virus.  Random samples in Mumbai slums seems to indicate that around 57% of the Mumbai slum residents has the virus which implies they are close to heard immunity yet the number of deaths is tiny in comparison to these estimates.   It seems clear to me how lethal this virus is has gone done dramatically over the lat few months.  The Anti-Establishment primary were also held with no increase in deaths related to virus.   There is no reason to delay the election.

[kelestian]

Joshua Wong was barred from registration as candidate. Has someone else been also banned?

[jaichind]

Joshua Wong was barred from registration as candidate. Has someone else been also banned?

12 candidates in all.  I have to look over the list.  I suspect they are mostly if not all Localism bloc candidates.  Clearly this bunch have made pro-HK independence statements or calls that cast doubt on PRC sovereignty over HK.  Not clear if the  infractions from the period after the new Security Law came into effect or if it is retrospective.  It seems that even had these 12 candidates got elected most of them would have refused to swear an oath of loyalty toward the PRC and lose their MLA seats anyway.

[urutzizu]

The 12 include four incumbent lawmakers, Civic Party Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu, Dennis Kwok and Kwok Ka-ki, as well as accountancy sector legco member Kenneth Leung as well as (as expected) Joshua Wong, Ventus Lau Wing-hong, Gwyneth Ho Kwai-lam and Alvin Cheng Kam-mun, district councillors Cheng Tat-hung, Lester Shum, Tiffany Yuen Ka-wai and Fergus Leung Fong-wai. So not all from Localism bloc, also prominent Pan-democrats.

This makes no sense.  The number of deaths in HK is basically nil.  in India random samples in Delhi implies that around 15% of the population has the virus.  Random samples in Mumbai slums seems to indicate that around 57% of the Mumbai slum residents has the virus which implies they are close to heard immunity yet the number of deaths is tiny in comparison to these estimates.   It seems clear to me how lethal this virus is has gone done dramatically over the lat few months.  The Anti-Establishment primary were also held with no increase in deaths related to virus.   There is no reason to delay the election.

Indian slums have much less elderly population as Hong Kong does, so mortality with a immunity approach would likely be much higher in Hong Kong. Serology studies from the Bronx, which is probably more comparable, would suggest at least 5000 deaths on basis of about 40-50% immunity. I cannot see an Immunity Approach being tried in any East Asian society though. I assume it is quite possible that Hong Kong manages to reduce infections relatively fast as with the surge in March-April and the delay does not materialize, the trouble with that though is that last time they were overwhelmingly connected with overseas travel, and as strong quarantine measures were brought in that cut them down significantly, this time it is widespread community transmission on a much larger level, which is more difficult to deal with. Maybe the Government does not want to face the Court challenge and lets them go ahead. But I think that if they go ahead in this environment, the pro-Beijing bloc will make even greater losses. Ultimately Beijing already has the Prize (Security Law) though, they probably do not care so much about the majority on the Council anymore, which was already in doubt.

[jaichind]

It seems, if you take the HK government word for it, the 12 candidates had made statements in the past that questioned PRC sovereignty in the past and was questioned last week where it seems they had a chance to walk back those statements.  It seems some of them choose not to and got disqualified. It seems there might be more.

The distribution of impacted candidates are

香港島 (Hong Kong Island): 3 out of 4 Anti-Establishment bloc primary winners disqualified (2 Localism bloc and 1 Democratic Moderate bloc) and 1 Polis bloc candidate.  Big blow to the Anti-Establishment bloc.  With 1 candidate left I guess the Anti-Establishment vote will have to flow to the few minor Democratic Moderate bloc and Localism bloc candidates running, unless they get disqalified too. 

九龍西(Kowloon West): no impact, so far.

九龍東(Kowloon East): 1 Localism bloc candidate disqualified (Joshua Wong) out of 5 Anti-Establishment bloc primary winners.  This actually might help the Anti-Establishment bloc as 5 candidates is clearly too many and will lead to vote split.

新界西(New Territories West): 1 Democratic Moderate bloc candidate disqualified out of 6 Anti-Establishment bloc primary winners.  There is a plan B candidate in the fray so the impact of this is nil one way or another assuming no more disqualifications takes place.

新界東(New Territories West): 3 Democratic Moderate bloc candidates disqualified out of 7 Anti-Establishment bloc primary winners.  There is a Plan B candidate in the fray to make up for but this is a clear blow to the Anti-Establishment bloc cause as it is reasonable to assume the Anti-Establishment bloc should be able to win 6 seats here.  Most likely some of the Anti-Establishment vote will flow to the Polis bloc candidates.

Functional PR: 1 out of the 4  Anti-Establishment list got disqualified.  Does not make a difference as the Anti-Establishment bloc will win 3 out of 5 seats one way or another.  This time around the Establishment bloc decided to run one list that unites the Establishment Economic Right and  Establishment Pro-Beijing candidates in one list to ensure they win 2 seats.

Accountancy and Legal functional Democratic Moderate bloc incumbents got disqualified.  This is a fatal blow to the  Anti-Establishment bloc as unless they find a way to have another candidate come in (might be too late for that) that is 2 "free" flips to Establishment bloc

 I get that the law is the law but this move seems unwise and takes the fun out of this election where now it is harder to get a read on the relative levels of support of different blocs.  In some cases reducing the number of candidates actually helps the Anti-Establishment bloc.  One way or another a better strategy would be to let the election run without disqualifying anyone and then hold the elected Anti-Establishment bloc MLAs to swearing an oath of loyalty to the PRC which they will refuse or look like hypocrites in which case even if the Establishment bloc loses their majority they will get it right back after the disqualifications.

[MaxQue]

Time to seize all tthe Confucius Institutes under national security laws, then.

[Dereich]

I get that the law is the law but this move seems unwise and takes the fun out of this election where now it is harder to get a read on the relative levels of support of different blocs.  In some cases reducing the number of candidates actually helps the Anti-Establishment bloc.  One way or another a better strategy would be to let the election run without disqualifying anyone and then hold the elected Anti-Establishment bloc MLAs to swearing an oath of loyalty to the PRC which they will refuse or look like hypocrites in which case even if the Establishment bloc loses their majority they will get it right back after the disqualifications.

I would think that is exactly the point. The CCP believes that this election will show a very high level of support for the pro-democracy candidates and is taking action to ensure that the election numbers will not show the legitimate level of support for each bloc. The Beijing interest is less in the actual governance of the city so much as it is in preventing any embarrassment and bad press from the election results.

[jaichind]

I get that the law is the law but this move seems unwise and takes the fun out of this election where now it is harder to get a read on the relative levels of support of different blocs.  In some cases reducing the number of candidates actually helps the Anti-Establishment bloc.  One way or another a better strategy would be to let the election run without disqualifying anyone and then hold the elected Anti-Establishment bloc MLAs to swearing an oath of loyalty to the PRC which they will refuse or look like hypocrites in which case even if the Establishment bloc loses their majority they will get it right back after the disqualifications.

I would think that is exactly the point. The CCP believes that this election will show a very high level of support for the pro-democracy candidates and is taking action to ensure that the election numbers will not show the legitimate level of support for each bloc. The Beijing interest is less in the actual governance of the city so much as it is in preventing any embarrassment and bad press from the election results.

That would not be the reason.  Every LegCo election since 1998 has shown the Anti-Establishment/Establishment vote share to be in the 56-62/38-44 range.  In the 2019 local elections which was peak Anti-Establishment sentiments with record turnout ended up being 58/42.  The vote share split this year will be something fairly similar.  If the CCP does not want the bad PR of an Anti-Establishment  popular vote majority they lost that one years ago.

The purpose of these laws are to protect the CCP nationalist flank.  The CCP has its own Mainland constituency to answer to.  The public opinion of the pro-CCP segments might have a wide range of views on free speech but are all united around "treason talk should not be tolerated."  The CCP shows off its nationalist stripes to its constituency when it got back HK in 1997 and Macao in 1999.  Now not only has CCP failed to bring Taiwan Province back into the fold but significant parts of the HK population are spouting slogans that question PRC sovereignty over HK.  The CCP knows the international cost of cracking down but have no choice less it loses more credibility in the eyes of their supporters on the Mainland.  True the CCP management of the virus in the end was judged to bet a net positive but there were clear bungling at the beginning which will not be forgotten.  Also with rising income the Mainland population are raising their demands on what the CCP brings to the table.  At this juncture losing face here is just too much for the CCP to risk so domestic politics concerns will have to trump other factors.

[jaichind]

The domestic nationalist pressure the CCP is facing is a concern and reminds me a lot of the domestic nationalist pressure the Hohenzollern regime was facing in the run up to WWI as a part of the economic surge of Germany in the late 1880s and 1890s.  I get really concerned when I read stories of the PRC renting Hambantota Port  in Sri Lanka for 99 years (where have I heard of that one before) and a PLA base in Djibouti,  One of the reason I am eager for a Chinese reunification by fusing Taiwan with the Mainland is to smoke out the would be militarist and imperialists in the PRC today as after Chinese reunification they would not no reason to have a foreign policy that challenges the USA led world order. While the USA world order is getting in the way of PRC move to reunify China there is domestic justification for a PRC foreign policy that seek to undermine the USA led World order.  My fear is that the Taiwan issue is a ruse to justify true global imperial ambitions within the PRC.  The earlier we can settle the Chinese reunification issue the earlier we can make a push toward a more isolationist live and let live foreign policy in a reunited China.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/ece28d6c700f34d496327ae7a66ed2bd

HK postpones election one year.  Sigh.  Not justified in my view.

[CumbrianLefty]

The virus was always going to be a good excuse for this sort of thing.

[Joseph Cao]

Yeah, this is not bueno.

One other thing: as mandated by the Basic Law, the legislative council elections are supposed to take place every four years. So this decision is constitutionally dubious on top of being a horrible look for the Hong Kong government, which has requested central authorities in Beijing to do their best in hand-waving away the legal questions.

[GlobeSoc]

The domestic nationalist pressure the CCP is facing is a concern and reminds me a lot of the domestic nationalist pressure the Hohenzollern regime was facing in the run up to WWI as a part of the economic surge of Germany in the late 1880s and 1890s.  I get really concerned when I read stories of the PRC renting Hambantota Port  in Sri Lanka for 99 years (where have I heard of that one before) and a PLA base in Djibouti,  One of the reason I am eager for a Chinese reunification by fusing Taiwan with the Mainland is to smoke out the would be militarist and imperialists in the PRC today as after Chinese reunification they would not no reason to have a foreign policy that challenges the USA led world order. While the USA world order is getting in the way of PRC move to reunify China there is domestic justification for a PRC foreign policy that seek to undermine the USA led World order.  My fear is that the Taiwan issue is a ruse to justify true global imperial ambitions within the PRC.  The earlier we can settle the Chinese reunification issue the earlier we can make a push toward a more isolationist live and let live foreign policy in a reunited China.

China is similar to wwi Germany in a lot of ways, unfortunately. A great war in the 21st century would be not great

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/majority-of-hong-kong-democrats-plan-to-remain-in-office/ar-BB19wLPk

After the HK authorities delayed the LEGCO elections for a year the radicals in the anti-Establishment bloc has been pushing for all anti-Establishment MLAs to resign in protest.  The moderates rather stay versus ceding the entire LEGCO to the Establishment bloc.  A poll was done of anti-Establishment supporters and it came out to be 45.4%-44.2 Stay/Leave which is neither here nor there.

As a result the more radical of the anti-Establishment MLA will resign while the rest will stay.  Not a good look for anti-Establishment unity when the elations do take place in 2021.  That is what the Establishment bloc has to count on in 2021 elections: splits on ideological and personal levels within the anti-Establishment camp.

[Dereich]

Worth bringing this thread back up as apparently most of those who took part in the opposition primary a few months ago as described in this thread were just arrested under the new security law.

https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1346637618944094214?s=20

[PSOL]

So the opposition has ceased to exist and democracy is all but finished in Hong Kong. What a woeful situation it has been for them.

China is rapidly going forward with the American model instead of a nation of different nationalities under one banner. From Tibet, to Xinjiang, to Hong Kong, and even to more loyal provinces like Outer Mongolia. They can do this only for as long as the people perceive they are prospering under the CCP government and for how well financed the security apparatus is.

Ultimately it cannot last forever, and we will see how well China can deal with inner pressure in due time alongside exterior pressure.

[kelestian]

So the opposition has ceased to exist and democracy is all but finished in Hong Kong. What a woeful situation it has been for them.

China is rapidly going forward with the American model instead of a nation of different nationalities under one banner. From Tibet, to Xinjiang, to Hong Kong, and even to more loyal provinces like Outer Mongolia. They can do this only for as long as the people perceive they are prospering under the CCP government and for how well financed the security apparatus is.

Ultimately it cannot last forever, and we will see how well China can deal with inner pressure in due time alongside exterior pressure.

American model? Which American model? They just went full Han nationalism. But in this case (Hong Kong) it's more about reganing full control of City and liquidating this strange situation when authoritarian state has one democratic region