Who should Dems run in Montana in 2018 & can they win?

[socaldem]

My moderate Republican cousin who lives in Helena Montana predicted that Quist didn't have what it takes to win the special election. Which of the above candidates can give it a better shot in 2018?

I think either Amanda Curtis or Kelly McCarthy would have done better than Quist. The key was to overperform in the large counties and gin up Native American turnout in the rurals. Curtis and McCarthy both have links to Billings, which is critical for a win.

[MT Treasurer]

1. Jesse Laslovich 
2. Casey Schreiner
3. Amanda Curtis


4. Kelly McCarthy

I think Laslovich could win if Gianforte has terrible approval ratings or implodes and 2018 is a massive Democratic wave. Either way, the race starts out as Lean R, and much closer to Likely R than Tossup.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why not Brian Schweitzer

[Chief Justice Keef]

Amanda Curtis.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Why not Brian Schweitzer

[Figueira]

Why not Brian Schweitzer

He would be great, but there's no way he's running.

[Figueira]

1. Jesse Laslovich 
2. Casey Schreiner
3. Amanda Curtis


4. Kelly McCarthy

I think Laslovich could win if Gianforte has terrible approval ratings or implodes and 2018 is a massive Democratic wave. Either way, the race starts out as Lean R, and much closer to Likely R than Tossup.

Why would Jesse Laslovich be a good candidate, and why would Kelly McCarthy be bad?

[MT Treasurer]

Why would Jesse Laslovich be a good candidate, and why would Kelly McCarthy be bad?

Laslovich has the right profile and background (his service as chief legal counsel and also in the MT legislature, where he was pretty popular) and comes across as likeable and down-to-earth. While it's true that he lost the race for Auditor to Rosendale by 8 points (and let's not forget that it was a GOP wave year), it was also an open seat and he did better than any other Democratic candidate on the ballot except Bullock of course. Yes, Melissa Romano also did better, but she was running against an incredibly weak candidate - plus, Democrats have always done well in Superintendent of Public Instruction races. I believe Arntzen is the first GOP superintendent in three decades or so.

Curtis is one of the better and more authentic MT Democrats IMO, but I don't see her winning unless Gianforte has really awful approval ratings (which is certainly possible). She would energize the base for sure, but do you see a path for her to win? Then again, like I said, if Gianforte implodes and 2018 is a Democratic wave, maybe.

I'm really not sure why McCarthy is supposed to be such a good candidate. Do people just mention him because he sought the Democratic nomination in 2017 and his district is located in Yellowstone County (keep in mind that Clinton won his district in 2016)? He strikes me as someone who could be painted as a "career politician" very easily and who would crack under pressure, but of course I could be wrong.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rob Quist again. Midterm should have higher turnout than this special.

[MT Treasurer]

Rob Quist again. Midterm should have higher turnout than this special.

Rob Quist didn't lose because of low turnout. Plus, I'm not sure why everyone thinks higher turnout always benefits Democrats.

[Jeppe]

Amanda Curtis, definitely.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rob Quist again. Midterm should have higher turnout than this special.

Rob Quist didn't lose because of low turnout. Plus, I'm not sure why everyone thinks higher turnout always benefits Democrats.

I'm not saying it does, but I think there's a good chance it could.

[This account no longer in use.]

Just speaking hypothetically, but couldn't Max Baucus run? If not, Schweitzer would probably be the best choice, followed by Curtis, followed by Quist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whoever, they nominate Dems will be helped, by Jon Tester, unlike the Special election.

[Kingpoleon]

Brian Schweitzer, Zeno Baucus, or Linda McCulloch would all make good candidates.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm not saying it does, but I think there's a good chance it could.

It depends, but Montana is not the kind of state where "low turnout" hurts Democrats, especially in a special election. Also, turnout in this special election was higher than in 2014.

Quist lost a winnable race by six points, his only hope in 2018 would be a massive Democratic wave and/or Gianforte having awful approval ratings. The MT Democratic Party has better options.

Whoever, they nominate Dems will be helped, by Jon Tester, unlike the Special election.

No, not really. Jon Tester didn't help Kim Gillan in 2012 either, and anyone who thinks his margin of victory will be so big that he will have "coattails" is probably deluded, tbh.

Brian Schweitzer, Zeno Baucus, or Linda McCulloch would all make good candidates.

Schweitzer isn't going to run and Zeno Baucus would get absolutely crushed. I'm not sure why you think he would make a good candidate, unless you just randomly googled "Montana Democrat" and thought he would be strong because of his last name. I don't see Linda McMulloch running (she didn't even run for this year's special election), and she would have a hard time winning a Congressional race. McMulloch released the voting records of the candidates running in the Secretary of state race last year and basically used her office to campaign for Lindeen. She's much more partisan than many people would assume.

Just speaking hypothetically, but couldn't Max Baucus run? If not, Schweitzer would probably be the best choice, followed by Curtis, followed by Quist.

Max Baucus isn't really popular in Montana, though. Running him would basically be an IN-SEN 2016 redux, except Baucus wouldn't be up 20-30 points in initial polling, but probably tied with GF at best. He retired from the Senate in 2014, and there is no reason why he would want to run for a House seat in 2018. And tbh, if I were a Democrat, I'd rather want to see a "fresh face" running than someone like Baucus.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Why is everyone so high on Curtis?

[Kamala]

Why is everyone so high on Curtis?

She's very authentic. A kind of person whom you'd want to have in Congress.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

What's the reason for Schweitzer's apparent retirement from politics? Just too happy at his mining company job? Not suggesting he should run for Rep, but I'd love for him to go after Daines in 2020.

[KingSweden]

Whatever happened to Kendall Van Dyk? Is he still around? Or Bryce Bennett (who has LGBT cred)?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Max Baucus lol.

[BuckeyeNut]

The NASA kid who gave it a go-round should run again.