ScotVote - A Scottish Election Series (Master Thread)

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh once against hosts a legislative assembly

Introduction

Devolution has just been delivered to Scotland, following a successful referendum in 1979. The referendum was closely run, with 52% of Scots backing an Assembly. The UK Government has announced that the elections will take place under First Past the Post using the 1974 Westminster constituencies.

Scotland will have control over most home affairs, such as health, education, social services and internal legal matters. Agriculture and fisheries will be divided between Scotland and the UK, with all other issues - notably taxation - being reserved to Westminster.

The Old Royal High School, in Edinburgh, will house the Scottish Assembly. The First Secretary, elected by Assembly Members (AMs) will be the head of the Scottish Executive.

The first election shall take place in August 1979 - two months before the UK general election, due to take place in October 1979.

First Secretaries
Bruce Millan AM (Glasgow Craigton); 1979-

Conservative leaders
George Younger MP (Ayr); 1979
Alick Buchanan-Smith AM (Angus North); 1979-

Labour leaders
Bruce Millan MP/AM (Glasgow Craigton); 1979-

Liberal leaders
Russell Johnston MP/AM (Inverness); 1979-

SDP leaders
Roy Jenkins AM (Glasgow Hillhead); 1981-

Scottish National Party leaders
Gordon Wilson MP/AM (Dundee East); 1979-

Elections
August 1979
May 1981

[afleitch]

Love it

[Barnes]

Great stuff!

[Clyde1998]

August 1979 Scottish Assembly election

Labour - 41.2% (47 AMs)
Conservative - 25.7% (10 AMs)
SNP - 22.9% (10 AMs)
Liberals - 10.2% (4 AMs)
Vote shares slightly adjusted to reflect constituency results.

The first Scottish Assembly election resulted in an unsurprising result, as Labour won a convincingly. They won six more seats than they achieved in the October 1974 general election; winning a huge majority in the process, with nearly double the amount of seats won by the opposition. Their opponents are concerned that a majority of this scale could cause complacency within the party. Bruce Millan will become the first First Secretary of Scotland, heading the Scottish Executive.

The Conservatives performed poorly, falling six seats to just ten. Embarrassingly for them, their leader George Younger, lost his seat of Ayr by 35 votes to Labour. The party narrowly held on to their last Glasgow seat - Hillhead, which would have seen them reduced to third. The Conservatives will become the main opposition to Labour in the first Assembly, however.

The Scottish Nationalists fell a seat on their 1974 performance, but hold a very strong position moving forward. Their third place finish suggests that they're going to become a mainstay in Scottish politics. With the collapse of the Conservatives, the party will be targeting second place in the next election.

Meanwhile, the Liberals achieved their highest vote share in Scotland since 1929 - winning four seats. Worryingly for them, there appears to be few seats, on paper, that they seem able to win in the next election.

With Labour widely expected to lose the general election in two months time to Margret Thatcher's Conservatives, it's seems unclear how the new Assembly will fit in to the British political mould.

[Clyde1998]

Scottish Conservative leadership election (August 1979)

The Conservatives were forced into a snap leadership election by George Younger's failed election to the Scottish Assembly in his Ayr Constituency. Party rules required that only Assembly Members could become the leader of the party and only AMs could vote in the election. Former Shadow Scottish Secretary Alick Buchanan-Smith was elected unopposed by his fellow Assembly Members.

First Millan Executive (1979 to 1981)

Despite having a near super-majority, the first Scottish Executive ran in to major problems. The biggest issue facing the Executive was the election of Michael Foot as leader of the national party. He shifted Labour policy to the left on many issues, leading to divisions between the UK party and the Scottish party. Worse for Labour was that this shift to the left caused six of their Assembly Members to defect to the new Social Democratic Party, while two members left to join the SNP (Jim Sillars and John Robertson).

Adding insult to injury was the spending cuts forced on the Executive, due to the reduction of the Scottish budget following Conservative spending cuts at Westminster. This forced Labour into cutting spending on education and healthcare (relative to inflation). The SNP claimed that only independence would resolve this issue, while the Liberals and Social Democrats called for taxation powers to the transferred to Scotland. The Conservatives suggested that this is the reason why devolution cannot work. Labour refused to discuss the possibility of more powers to Scotland.

The executive has managed some successes though, as Labour's pledge of modern housing has started to be delivered and this has contributed to a reduction of poverty in Scotland. The executive has additionally contributed to the creation of over 7,500 new jobs in a backdrop of the early 1980s recession.

In March 1981, the first by-election in the Scottish Assembly occurred with Roy Jenkins winning Glasgow Hillhead for the new Social Democratic Party. Jenkins would go on to become the leader of the Scottish SDP.

Later that month, Labour surprised the nation, as they called for a new Scottish Assembly election citing the Conservative budget cuts from Westminster and the defections from the party. The media additionally wondered whether this election could see the Conservatives finish behind the SNP, due to their failure to adequately fund the Scottish Assembly and high unemployment.

[Clyde1998]

August 1979 Scottish Assembly election

SNP - 39.5% (44 AMs; +32)
Labour - 23.5% (20 AMs; -19)
Conservative - 18.4% (3 AMs; -6)
Liberals - 9.3% (3 AMs; -1)
SDP - 9.3% (1 AMs; -6)
Vote shares slightly adjusted to reflect constituency results; seat changes compared to dissolution.

The snap election was a disaster for Labour, with the party losing nearly half of their Assembly Members. They received their worst vote share since 1918, as voters punished them for their failure to request more powers for the Assembly and ineffectiveness in charge of the executive. Of their loses, nearly all of them were to the SNP. The Nationalists have won their first ever election in Scotland, with their highest vote share to date. They are now in a position to hold a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. The key plank of the SNP manifesto is believed to have contributed heavily to their majority.

The Conservatives will return to the Assembly with none of their current Assembly Members. The Conservatives achieved their worst result in Scotland since Benjamin Disraeli led the party to defeat in the 1868 general election. The only seats that are now held by the Tories are seats that were held by Labour prior to the election - Aberdeen South, Ayr and Edinburgh South. The appalling election result will require another leadership election, as Alick Buchanan-Smith lost his Angus North seat to the SNP. Their previous leader, George Younger, is the favourite to return to the leadership role, following his victory in Ayr.

The Liberals lost a single seat, Inverness, to the SNP, but managed to retain the others. The only other seat that they came close to winning was Greenock & Port Glasgow, won by the SDP. Pundits are describing this election as a positive one for the Liberals, considering the rise of the SNP and the potential to be squeezed by the SDP. They will be frustrated to have not made any further progress, however.

Despite going into the election with high hopes, the SDP were squeezed out by the SNP. Of all the seats that they held before the election, they were beaten into second by the yellow tide. The size of the SNP victory was such that even an alliance with the Liberals wouldn't have made a major difference on the election result, with only two seats being flagged as gains for an alliance. Their leader, Roy Jenkins, lost his Glasgow Hillhead seat; he would've held on had an alliance been in place.

Scotland now faces an independence referendum. While it's clear which side the SNP and the Conservatives will take on this issue, the others will be forced to make a decision that could affect their long term electoral future. A difference in opinion from members of the Liberals and the SDP could kill off any chance of an alliance in future elections. Labour, who have historically been divided by devolution, could destroy themselves with internal struggles on this issue.

[Clyde1998]

*Sorry about the delay here, there's been a lot going on. I haven't forgotten about this and the next part of this should be up soon.*