2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[junior chįmp]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year.  

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

Yeah Democrats are pussies and never play hardball with this stuff. They’d rather be self-righteous and handcuff themselves while Republicans go about their maps unanswered

With Kennedy gone...independent redistricting commissions will most likely be ruled un-constitutional by SCOTUS. It's time for Dems to repeal independent commissions and just gerrymander the hell out of every state like never before. There shouldn't be a single GOP district in NY, CA, or VA.

...I really doubt that Kennedy was the roadblock stopping the SC from getting rid of Independent commissions. I agree that Dems should play hardball, but I really doubt that everything is screwed because the moderate-conservative will be replaced by a conservative.

In fact...he was. In the SCOTUS case Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Kennedy sided with the libs that independent redistricting commissions were constitutional. Clown Justice Roberts along with whatever right wing goon that replaces Kennedy will almost surely strike down the law.

[Zaybay]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year. 

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

Yeah Democrats are pussies and never play hardball with this stuff. They’d rather be self-righteous and handcuff themselves while Republicans go about their maps unanswered

With Kennedy gone...independent redistricting commissions will most likely be ruled un-constitutional by SCOTUS. It's time for Dems to repeal independent commissions and just gerrymander the hell out of every state like never before. There shouldn't be a single GOP district in NY, CA, or VA.

...I really doubt that Kennedy was the roadblock stopping the SC from getting rid of Independent commissions. I agree that Dems should play hardball, but I really doubt that everything is screwed because the moderate-conservative will be replaced by a conservative.

In fact...he was. In the SCOTUS case Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Kennedy sided with the libs that independent redistricting commissions were constitutional. Clown Justice Roberts along with whatever right wing goon that replaces Kennedy will almost surely strike down the law.

I see, but Roberts hasn't been very keen on overturning decisions that his court decided. Its also important to note that its likely the GOP would lose out if this goes through, since this would leave CA, VA, NJ, NY, WA and soon AZ to gerrymander and effectively take over the house. The Dems have been restrained in gerrymandering and have had independent commissions mostly effect them, but if the court guts it, the GOP house majority is screwed.

[junior chįmp]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year. 

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

Yeah Democrats are pussies and never play hardball with this stuff. They’d rather be self-righteous and handcuff themselves while Republicans go about their maps unanswered

With Kennedy gone...independent redistricting commissions will most likely be ruled un-constitutional by SCOTUS. It's time for Dems to repeal independent commissions and just gerrymander the hell out of every state like never before. There shouldn't be a single GOP district in NY, CA, or VA.

...I really doubt that Kennedy was the roadblock stopping the SC from getting rid of Independent commissions. I agree that Dems should play hardball, but I really doubt that everything is screwed because the moderate-conservative will be replaced by a conservative.

In fact...he was. In the SCOTUS case Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Kennedy sided with the libs that independent redistricting commissions were constitutional. Clown Justice Roberts along with whatever right wing goon that replaces Kennedy will almost surely strike down the law.

I see, but Roberts hasn't been very keen on overturning decisions that his court decided. Its also important to note that its likely the GOP would lose out if this goes through, since this would leave CA, VA, NJ, NY, WA and soon AZ to gerrymander and effectively take over the house. The Dems have been restrained in gerrymandering and have had independent commissions mostly effect them, but if the court guts it, the GOP house majority is screwed.

So far we dont know....with Kennedy gone, were about to find out how much Clown Roberts really believes in stare decisis.

[Zaybay]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year. 

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

Yeah Democrats are pussies and never play hardball with this stuff. They’d rather be self-righteous and handcuff themselves while Republicans go about their maps unanswered

With Kennedy gone...independent redistricting commissions will most likely be ruled un-constitutional by SCOTUS. It's time for Dems to repeal independent commissions and just gerrymander the hell out of every state like never before. There shouldn't be a single GOP district in NY, CA, or VA.

...I really doubt that Kennedy was the roadblock stopping the SC from getting rid of Independent commissions. I agree that Dems should play hardball, but I really doubt that everything is screwed because the moderate-conservative will be replaced by a conservative.

In fact...he was. In the SCOTUS case Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Kennedy sided with the libs that independent redistricting commissions were constitutional. Clown Justice Roberts along with whatever right wing goon that replaces Kennedy will almost surely strike down the law.

I see, but Roberts hasn't been very keen on overturning decisions that his court decided. Its also important to note that its likely the GOP would lose out if this goes through, since this would leave CA, VA, NJ, NY, WA and soon AZ to gerrymander and effectively take over the house. The Dems have been restrained in gerrymandering and have had independent commissions mostly effect them, but if the court guts it, the GOP house majority is screwed.

Don’t hold your breath. Guarantee you Democrats would still decide to be self sanctimonious even if commissions are outlawed and just decide to “play fair” as they’re getting simultaneously ed by GOP gerrymanders without any lube.

But yeah, if Dems had any metaphorical balls whatsoever they would just nuke the CA, WA and NJ commissions and gerrymander the hell out of those states.

The thing is though, they did. The whole reason these states have commissions is because of D gerrymanders that got overturned by voters. With their hands free, and the idea that its the only way to win, I doubt they would be fair about it. Maybe 2012 Democrats, but not now. Democrats so far have been shown to dig their heels in, even shutting down the government, which is crazy for the party associated with Big Government. Of course, with all of these ideas, time will tell.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there even a way to gerrymander California for more seats?
With the collapse of Orange county Republicans the state has become a natural gerrymander. 

[Doimper]

Is there even a way to gerrymander California for more seats?
With the collapse of Orange county Republicans the state has become a natural gerrymander. 

There are a few Central Valley/deep interior districts that could definitely be wiped out. Valadao would get squashed, too. I don't think it would be that difficult to whip up a solid 53-0 gerrymander.

[Nyvin]

Is there even a way to gerrymander California for more seats?
With the collapse of Orange county Republicans the state has become a natural gerrymander. 

Yes, pretty easily.   Especially all the marginal seats like CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, and CA-49.   They're literally right next door to Dem vote sinks.   

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah if CA decided to tentacle, it could easily get to 53-0 and still have enough strong Hispanic minority districts. But we didn't, and we have fair districts. The 7 solid R seats (1, 4, 8, 23, 42, 50, and maybe 22) all have natural republican vote bases, and no matter what are safe R under the current coalition. The best dems can do under our good redistricting laws is make those 7 stronger packs to fortify the 7 clinton seats, and maybe move precincts around in the valley to make CA-22 a potential pickup.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

California Democrats should repeal the redistricting commission, and draw a complete 53-0 D gerrymander in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

California Democrats should repeal the redistricting commission, and draw a complete 53-0 D gerrymander in 2020.

Of course its a poster from Maryland...

[Deblano]

California Democrats should repeal the redistricting commission, and draw a complete 53-0 D gerrymander in 2020.

Of course its a poster from Maryland...

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah let’s not gerrymander. We don’t want to end up like the GOP now in the 2020s and have an artificial majority filled with crazy people who can’t lose.

[Zaybay]

Yeah let’s not gerrymander. We don’t want to end up like the GOP now in the 2020s and have an artificial majority filled with crazy people who can’t lose.

So your saying to protect us from the horror of a couple of socialists in the Democratic party, we should hand over control of 1/3 of the US legislature, or at least severely disadvantage ourselves?

[Devils30]

Dems only need 2 in the VA house, 1 in the Senate so they probably get it in 2019. They would be stupid to agree to a commission at this point. Roberts ending commissions would make NJ, CA, WA subject to Dem gerrymanders and AZ is rapidly trending toward tossup territory that could lean D soon enough anyway. A Governor's veto pen is enough to make PA, FL, MI drawn by the courts instead of the GOP as well.

[Nyvin]

Dems only need 2 in the VA house, 1 in the Senate so they probably get it in 2019. They would be stupid to agree to a commission at this point. Roberts ending commissions would make NJ, CA, WA subject to Dem gerrymanders and AZ is rapidly trending toward tossup territory that could lean D soon enough anyway. A Governor's veto pen is enough to make PA, FL, MI drawn by the courts instead of the GOP as well.

Yeah it’s definitely not in Republicans’ interest for SCOTUS to outlaw redistricting commissions. It would be ironic too since it would be a result of Republicans’ incessant bitching about the Arizona map. “Okay, you don’t like the commissions that drew you several swing seats in Arizona? Okay, here’s a 50D-3R California map!”

Also, going by 2016 numbers, the Arizona commission map creates AT MOST one extra swing district (AZ-1), since AZ-2 and AZ-9 have trended dem so much since 2010.

[Nyvin]

Dems only need 2 in the VA house, 1 in the Senate so they probably get it in 2019. They would be stupid to agree to a commission at this point. Roberts ending commissions would make NJ, CA, WA subject to Dem gerrymanders and AZ is rapidly trending toward tossup territory that could lean D soon enough anyway. A Governor's veto pen is enough to make PA, FL, MI drawn by the courts instead of the GOP as well.

It doesnt help that the GOP only has the advantage in the state legislature due to Rs in Clinton suburbs. If all the Rs in the suburbs were replaced by Ds, then the house would be tied, allowing a map more fair for Dems.

Dems hold a lot of very Trumpy territory in the state House though

Not really.  The only district that the dems hold that Trump won (that I can tell) is HD-85.   And that was a measily 50.7% Trump win.

[Bidenworth2020]

Dan Helmer is back and running for HD-40 in 2019. If any Democrat could lose that race, it’s him.

say what you want about dan helmer, but at least he now has name rec.