State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[The Other Castro]

Weak performance for the Democrats in Connecticut.

Strong performance for the Democrats in Kentucky and New Hampshire.

This district is traditionally very strong for Republicans running for State Rep. This is pretty big for CT Dems, despite comparisons to Clinton margins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That CT district is still very much red downballot. This is an impressive victory!

Yep, from what I see Republicans controlled this seat for 40 years.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It was actually a 1% under-performance for the Democrat in Connecticut compared to 2016, the 1st time in 2018 where the Democrat under-performed...

[Bidenworth2020]

Although more miner than things we've seen in OK, I'd guess Malloy had an effect on the race.

[Oryxslayer]

Dems don't need to try and justify an underpreformance here, Malloy is hated, and the Dem brand in CT is sh**t. A dem win, no matter how small, showed that national politics mattered a bit more then local ones here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrat increased the Dem's vote share by 13.5 points while the Republican decreased the GOP's by 13.5.

[choclatechip45]

This seat has been republican down ballot forever. I’m pretty excited about this win!

[Gass3268]

Dems don't need to try and justify an underpreformance here, Malloy is hated, and the Dem brand in CT is sh**t. A dem win, no matter how small, showed that national politics mattered a bit more then local ones here.

This has historically been a Republican stronghold downballot. This is similar to some of the pickups Democrats got in NoVa.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Yeah Republicans need to be winning districts like this by double digits if they want to take the Governorship

I wouldn’t put too much stock into races like the ones tonight with about 15% turnout in KY NH and CT. Only the super motivated turn out for those. I barely ever vote in these ones myself tbh

[Gass3268]

Yeah Republicans need to be winning districts like this by double digits if they want to take the Governorship

I wouldn’t put too much stock into races like the ones tonight with about 15% turnout in KY NH and CT. Only the super motivated turn out for those. I barely ever vote in these ones myself tbh

There is a direct relation between special election results and future general elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Republicans need to be winning districts like this by double digits if they want to take the Governorship

Malloy lost the seat by 2, 49-51 in 2014 but won the state by the same margin. That said, the state map has changed with the rural east getting more republican while the suburban southwest gets more dem.

[Holmes]

Yeah, a pickup is a pickup. If Dems perform downballot as Clinton did, they still pick up a lot of seats.

[Sestak]

So much winning!

What's next?

[Oryxslayer]

So much winning!

What's next?

There were some primaries in AL, SC, and RI for specials in safe seats. Nave not heard anything about those.

[Virginiá]

Yeah Republicans need to be winning districts like this by double digits if they want to take the Governorship

I wouldn’t put too much stock into races like the ones tonight with about 15% turnout in KY NH and CT. Only the super motivated turn out for those. I barely ever vote in these ones myself tbh

Special election results taken as a group is pretty good at predicting the midterm results. It's like polls in that way. Just throw them into the pile and average it out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

CT taxes have been raised sky high, and under his tenure GE bolted from the state to Boston

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the Schedule for March:

March 6, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate Third Essex District   
[show]☐ Oklahoma House of Representatives District 51   

March 13, 2018
[show]☐ Tennessee State Senate District 14   
MS-60 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 24, 2018
[show]☐ Louisiana House of Representatives District 93   
LA-86 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 27, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 21   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kentucky was a 28% swing to the Democrats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Kentucky was a 28% swing to the Democrats.

Yep... but individual specials don't mean that much. Connecticut was a 0% swing! Throw it in the average!

I believe the average overperformance in special elections so far is 13%. Even half of that would be excellent for dems chances of getting the house in 2018.

[LimoLiberal]

Here's the Schedule for March:

March 6, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate Third Essex District   
[show]☐ Oklahoma House of Representatives District 51   

March 13, 2018
[show]☐ Tennessee State Senate District 14   
MS-60 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 24, 2018
[show]☐ Louisiana House of Representatives District 93   
LA-86 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 27, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 21   

Boring month, but we'll have Nancy's Little Lamb and Sad-faced Saccone to occupy us.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the Schedule for March:

March 6, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate Third Essex District   
[show]☐ Oklahoma House of Representatives District 51   

March 13, 2018
[show]☐ Tennessee State Senate District 14   
MS-60 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 24, 2018
[show]☐ Louisiana House of Representatives District 93   
LA-86 RUNOFF (R v. R)

March 27, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 21   

Boring month, but we'll have Nancy's Little Lamb and Sad-faced Saccone to occupy us.

Don't forget IL and TX 2018 primaries.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/StratfordStar/status/968659925122592769

After adjusting for massive voter fraud, heavy rain, and human error, the official vote ended up being 1615 to 1552

[Sestak]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

CT taxes have been raised sky high, and under his tenure GE bolted from the state to Boston

So literally Reverse Brownback.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

CT taxes have been raised sky high, and under his tenure GE bolted from the state to Boston

The 1st part is not bad at all, and the 2nd part simply proves that too many states simply have tax rates that are way too low, which causes harm to all the other states in the process.