State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think the pattern is clearer and clearer with every election.
Suburban, center-right districts are extremely vulnerable for Republicans. Rural, hardcore conservative ones, are still holding strong.

It's obvious that the deplorables are still fervently supporting Trump, but affluent, well educated suburbanites who voted for him reluctantly out of Clinton hatred/party loyalty are quite tired and disgusted by the circus that is his presidency.

[OneJ]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

It does make sense when you realize just how unpopular Malloy is among people who actually live in Connecticut.

Trump is more unpopular in CT, though.

And yeah, Belcher will win.

Yeah... but Trump isn't on the ballot in a local election. People are able to distance local politics from national politics.

To be fair, Virginia last year was largely considered a referendum on Trump and we all know how that went.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think the pattern is clearer and clearer with every election.
Suburban, center-right districts are extremely vulnerable for Republicans. Rural, hardcore conservative ones, are still holding strong.

It's obvious that the deplorables are still fervently supporting Trump, but affluent, well educated suburbanites who voted for him reluctantly out of Clinton hatred/party loyalty are quite tired and disgusted by the circus that is his presidency.

It's also apparent that a lot of the Clinton/down ballot GOP voters are sticking with Democrats now as the Republican Party is increasingly becoming the Party of Trump.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think the pattern is clearer and clearer with every election.
Suburban, center-right districts are extremely vulnerable for Republicans. Rural, hardcore conservative ones, are still holding strong.

It's obvious that the deplorables are still fervently supporting Trump, but affluent, well educated suburbanites who voted for him reluctantly out of Clinton hatred/party loyalty are quite tired and disgusted by the circus that is his presidency.

It's also apparent that a lot of the Clinton/down ballot GOP voters are sticking with Democrats now as the Republican Party is increasingly becoming the Party of Trump.

These people are the type that would have came back and voted Republican again if Trump lost.

[Gass3268]

I think the pattern is clearer and clearer with every election.
Suburban, center-right districts are extremely vulnerable for Republicans. Rural, hardcore conservative ones, are still holding strong.

It's obvious that the deplorables are still fervently supporting Trump, but affluent, well educated suburbanites who voted for him reluctantly out of Clinton hatred/party loyalty are quite tired and disgusted by the circus that is his presidency.

Yet Democrats are getting Obama like margins in Obama->Trump districts.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Mother Jones is trying to downplay the special elections for some reason... their article contradicts their title.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/special-elections-suggest-democrats-momentum-might-be-slowing/

[LimoLiberal]

Mother Jones is trying to downplay the special elections for some reason... their article contradicts their title.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/special-elections-suggest-democrats-momentum-might-be-slowing/

Absolute garbage title. Shameful.

[Virginiá]

Mother Jones is trying to downplay the special elections for some reason... their article contradicts their title.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/special-elections-suggest-democrats-momentum-might-be-slowing/

My issue with this is the author used selective comparisons that were made solely because it bolstered her point of view:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She is acting like a 31 point swing is the new normal, and anything less represents a narrowing environment. I think the average swing in legislative special elections was like D+9 to D+11 (obviously it changes from time to time). So of course her argument looks more credible if she compares it to the biggest recent swing-win. That being said, wasn't the FL race a D+12 swing? I recall seeing someone say that the other night. If so, that race certainly does not represent a slowing down of the wave.

Then this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it a shift of 32 points to the Democrat? She only subtracted 68 from 84. She didn't add the percentage from Clinton's vote share to the Democratic candidate's vote share.


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Honestly, this article sucks. She makes a bold claim and then provides misleading evidence that actually contradicts her claim when corrected.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mother Jones is trying to downplay the special elections for some reason... their article contradicts their title.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/special-elections-suggest-democrats-momentum-might-be-slowing/

My issue with this is the author used selective comparisons that were made solely because it bolstered her point of view:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She is acting like a 31 point swing is the new normal, and anything less represents a narrowing environment. I think the average swing in legislative special elections was like D+9 to D+11 (obviously it changes from time to time). So of course her argument looks more credible if she compares it to the biggest recent swing-win. That being said, wasn't the FL race a D+12 swing? I recall seeing someone say that the other night. If so, that race certainly does not represent a slowing down of the wave.

Then this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it a shift of 32 points to the Democrat? She only subtracted 68 from 84. She didn't add the percentage from Clinton's vote share to the Democratic candidate's vote share.


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Honestly, this article sucks. She makes a bold claim and then provides misleading evidence that actually contradicts her claim when corrected.

Semantics over definition of "shift" basically. Or "shift" vs. "swing". I know in the UK "swing" would be "only" 16 points there based on the formula they use.

Still quite a misleading conclusion.

[UncleSam]

It's a Mother Jones article, of course it's garbage. Someone from the DnC probably called them up and said weare seeing less concern and panic then we'd like in advance if the midterns, let's try and get the base riledupsome more.

So this article appears to fill that request. It's just propaganda - and bad propaganda at that. There is zero evidence to back up the claims made.

[Nyvin]

It's a Mother Jones article, of course it's garbage. Someone from the DnC probably called them up and said weare seeing less concern and panic then we'd like in advance if the midterns, let's try and get the base riledupsome more.

So this article appears to fill that request. It's just propaganda - and bad propaganda at that. There is zero evidence to back up the claims made.

It's pretty subjective content,  not like you can say definitively specials do or don't show what'll happen in the midterms.

Besides I find Mother Jones pretty reputable most of the time.

[LimoLiberal]

Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/964936185394147329

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/964936185394147329

This guy is the future of the gop, folks.

[Classic Conservative]

Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/964936185394147329

Let the guy do what he wants. Your obsession with him and what he posts is kinda creepy.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wait lmao is that dude wearing leggings!?!

[Holmes]

Wait lmao is that dude wearing leggings!?!

He has a very feminine silhouette.

[Classic Conservative]

Wait lmao is that dude wearing leggings!?!

He’s gay.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wait lmao is that dude wearing leggings!?!

Yea those tight jeans are a massive WTF

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/964936185394147329

Let the guy do what he wants. Your obsession with him and what he posts is kinda creepy.

Wait what

That intersection is literally a mile and a half from my Dad's house

I drove by that intersection every day to go to school for six years and go running there whenever I visit home

what

[LimoLiberal]

Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/964936185394147329

Let the guy do what he wants. Your obsession with him and what he posts is kinda creepy.

Wait what

That intersection is literally a mile and a half from my Dad's house

I drove by that intersection every day to go to school for six years and go running there whenever I visit home

what

lmao y'all should be friends

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he is gay he'd do even worse in AL than Moore.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 9 ET tonight in LA HD 86. Results at:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

[Holmes]

Oh yeah, there's a special in Louisiana.

[LimoLiberal]

Yikes. Democrat getting 7% in the early vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Scott Presler is a fu***** moron. More than 95% of the candidates he supports don't believe that as a gay man he doesn't have a right to exist.

His videos also make me cringe.