State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[LimoLiberal]

McNamara has to make up 1000 votes from 5 precincts in Hastings. Yep, it's over.

Well, he did just make up more than 100 votes from Hastings W-4 P-1. And swung the margin 8 points republican from 2016. But probably is still over.

[Dr. Arch]

McNamara has to make up 1000 votes from 5 precincts in Hastings. Yep, it's over.

Well, he did just make up more than 100 votes from Hastings W-4 P-1. And swung the margin 8 points republican from 2016. But probably is still over.

Are you talking to yourself or did you forget to log onto your sock? Mods!

[Brittain33]

Not much of a swing, at least not in 23B.

[LimoLiberal]

It's going to be pretty close in SD-54, even though Bigham will still prevail. Two precincts left, one that was 60% Trump and one that was 52%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results for 23B:

State Representative District 23B     Results By Precinct
Party   Candidate   Totals   Pct   Graph
Republican      Jeremy Munson   3943   59.22%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Melissa Wagner   2658   39.92%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   57   0.86%   

[Littlefinger]

#Munsonunder60percent

/s

[LimoLiberal]

Lookin' like a seven and four point under performance for Rs compared to 2016 results in HD-23b and SD-54, respectively. Both are under performances compared to 2012. I'm interested into what the results would be if this election was on a Tuesday instead.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lookin' like a seven and four point under performance for Rs compared to 2016 results in HD-23b and SD-54, respectively. Both are under performances compared to 2012. I'm interested into what the results would be if this election was on a Tuesday instead.

I don't see why the election being on a Monday would change anything, but I'm interested in hearing what you think would change and why.

[Littlefinger]

In SD34, the turnout is roughly 30% according to my calculations in the numbers on the website are correct

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results for 54:

State Senator District 54     Results By Precinct
Party   Candidate   Totals   Pct   Graph
Republican      Denny McNamara   6815   47.07%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Karla Bigham   7344   50.72%   
Libertarian Party      Emily Mellingen   313   2.16%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   7   0.05%   

[morgieb]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's it for tonight. Tomorrow:

FL-72 (My Rating: LEAN R)
GA-175 (My Rating: LIKELY R)
OK-SEN-27 (My Rating: SAFE R)

[LimoLiberal]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

Dean McNamara was a stellar candidate. He represents half of the district in the state house, and wins with 60% of the vote in tossup territory.
He had tons of outside money flowing in to help him.
And the previous DFLer who held this seat was ousted by a sex scandal.

And Bigham still out performed Hillary by 5 points.

[junior chįmp]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

Minnesota is a well run state with a popular D governor. States like WI, OK, and MO have been run into the ground by disastrous R governors

[LimoLiberal]

Oh my god I want to vomit.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/963256380114259968

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[morgieb]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

It was a Trump district that Republicans ran their strongest possible recruit in and the Democrat won by 4 points still.

Fair enough, but what about 23B? Given it was only a narrow Romney seat Dems should've done better than a 20 point loss.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is going to be the most blazingly hot take you've heard in a while: There's going to be a 60 point margin swing in favor of dems tomorrow in Oklahoma. Trump won this district by like 75 so it's still going to be a D loss.

[Virginiá]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

It was a Trump district that Republicans ran their strongest possible recruit in and the Democrat won by 4 points still.

Fair enough, but what about 23B? Given it was only a narrow Romney seat Dems should've done better than a 20 point loss.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out. These wouldn't be the first weak(er) performances of the post-2016 elections, though. They probably won't be the last either.

[Sestak]

Tomorrow, we take FL-72!

[LimoLiberal]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

It was a Trump district that Republicans ran their strongest possible recruit in and the Democrat won by 4 points still.

Fair enough, but what about 23B? Given it was only a narrow Romney seat Dems should've done better than a 20 point loss.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out. These wouldn't be the first weak(er) performances of the post-2016 elections, though. They probably won't be the last either.

Don't forget Georgia...

Also Democrats are trying to win a 49-47 Clinton house seat in Connecticut where a R retired mid-term. Watch for a big R win there.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

It was a Trump district that Republicans ran their strongest possible recruit in and the Democrat won by 4 points still.

Fair enough, but what about 23B? Given it was only a narrow Romney seat Dems should've done better than a 20 point loss.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out. These wouldn't be the first weak(er) performances of the post-2016 elections, though. They probably won't be the last either.

Don't forget Georgia...

Also Democrats are trying to win a 49-47 Clinton house seat in Connecticut where a R retired mid-term. Watch for a big R win there.

I would heavily consider voting R statewide if I lived in Connecticut.

[Gass3268]

2016


2018-Special

[KingSweden]

Oh my god I want to vomit.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/963256380114259968

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This idiot is a national treasure of bad #analysis

[Gass3268]

2016


2018-Special

[Virginiá]

Oh my god I want to vomit.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/963256380114259968

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This idiot is a national treasure of bad #analysis

Is this guy a troll or just a delusional Trump supporter? His feed has been posted here a number of times now and I don't think I've ever seen even a remotely objective take. It's all spin, 24/7.