State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Oryxslayer]

On the other side of the coin, i'm fairly confident we can call 39 for team R:

State Representative - District 39 - unexpired           27 of 37 Precincts Reported
Peggy McGaugh   Republican   1,636   65.650%
Ethan C. Perkinson   Democratic   856   34.350%
    Total Votes:   2,492   

[Sestak]

97 goes D
129 stays R
We can probably project 39 stays R
144 TCTC

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: Rs hold District 39:

State Representative - District 39 - unexpired           27 of 37 Precincts Reported
Peggy McGaugh   Republican   1,636   65.650%
Ethan C. Perkinson   Democratic   856   34.350%
    Total Votes:   2,492   

And somehow, Ds get District 97 (?) (Fraud?)

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           10 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   1,679   48.442%
Mike Revis   Democratic   1,787   51.558%
    Total Votes:   3,466

------------------


State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           30 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican   2,021   49.197%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   2,087   50.803%
    Total Votes:   4,108      

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Source!!!

BLUE DOG POWER!!! You are welcome!





Smash through that red wall!

[YPestis25]

I think the last county is Wayne, though I'm sure someone can confirm. That will likely be rough for Scaggs.

[Holmes]

I hope Scaggs pulls through...

[GeorgiaModerate]

And somehow, Ds get District 97 (?) (Fraud?)

Why would you say that?  It was always the most likely of the 4 to flip, and with the massive swings we've seen in other specials, it's not shocking.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think the last county is Wayne, though I'm sure someone can confirm. That will likely be rough for Scaggs.

Yeah, it's Wayne

[Sestak]

And somehow, Ds get District 97 (?) (Fraud?)

Wulfric thinks Jason Kander was a false flag.

[Ebsy]

Scaggs is likely going to narrowly lose.

[Sestak]

T

S

U

N

A

M

I


B

O

I

S

[Hindsight was 2020]

Good result tonight even if Scaggs losses narrowly

[LimoLiberal]

BTW, Scagg's opponent won the last dump of votes 621-529. Scaggs can only narrowly lose the next 14 precincts.

[Beet]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

[KingSweden]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

I agree

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

Yeah, while I think Georgia is rapidly trending D, there aren't that many swing voters here. Unless you're going for aggressive grassroots organization miniority outreach (e.g Stacey Abrams), it's best not to target Georgia much in a close race.

Arizona does seem to be a bit swingier tho -- it swung 8% from 2012 --> 2016.

[YE]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

I agree

But I thought everyone in the Midwest who voted for Trump is racist/sexist and will never vote Democrat again /s.

[Oryxslayer]

Swings from 2016 in the completed seats:


MO-97 - 61 - 33 Trump, 51.6 - 48.4 Revis(D)
             Swing from 28-point margin to 1.6 Dem, or a 29.6 point swing to the left D+15 net
MO-129 - 80 - 16 Trump, 69 - 31 Knight(R)
             Swing from 64-point margin to a 38 point one, a 26 point swing left or D+13 net

[Sestak]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

I agree

But I thought everyone in the Midwest who voted for Trump is racist/sexist and will never vote Democrat again /s.

Yeah, didn't you hear? We have to give up on #MeToo and trans rights and go all Corbyn to get them back.

[Sestak]

39's all in.
1942-1077 R

[LimoLiberal]

Final margin in HD-39 is 64-36 R. Trump won here 71-24, marking a Democratic over-performance of 19 points compared to 2016 and an under-performance of 6 points compared to 2012.

[Oryxslayer]

Swings from 2016 in the completed seats:


MO-97 - 61 - 33 Trump, 51.6 - 48.4 Revis(D)
             Swing from 28-point margin to 1.6 Dem, or a 29.6 point swing to the left D+15 net
MO-129 - 80 - 16 Trump, 69 - 31 Knight(R)
             Swing from 64-point margin to a 38 point one, a 26 point swing left or D+13 net

District 39 is now done as well:


Edit:

MO-39 - 71 - 24 Trump, 64 - 36 McGaugh(R)
             Swing from a 47-point win to a 28 point victory, only a 19 point swing left, or D+9.5 net

[Sestak]

The generic ballot is not at 6%.

[Babeuf]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

I agree

But I thought everyone in the Midwest who voted for Trump is racist/sexist and will never vote Democrat again /s.

Yeah, didn't you hear? We have to give up on #MeToo and trans rights and go all Corbyn to get them back.

I know what you're getting at (his economic views) but Corbyn is totally in favor of trans rights and #MeToo just fwiw.

Good night though, even if Scaggs loses!

[Sestak]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

I agree

But I thought everyone in the Midwest who voted for Trump is racist/sexist and will never vote Democrat again /s.

Yeah, didn't you hear? We have to give up on #MeToo and trans rights and go all Corbyn to get them back.

I know what you're getting at (his economic views) but Corbyn is totally in favor of trans rights and #MeToo just fwiw.

Good night though, even if Scaggs loses!

LET ME CHANNEL KING LEAR IN PEACE.