State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any results from Iowa yet?

[jamestroll]

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

[GlobeSoc]

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

[Tintrlvr]

St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1

This seat was already up in 2016, so now Democrats only need +3 in November to flip the chamber? If so, do you think it's a better possibility now, given the favorable environment?

There's a special for SD-01, a district with comparable or slightly less R partisanship in NE Wisconsin (Green Bay area but not including Green Bay), before the 2018 GE also. That could make it significantly easier if the Democrats can win there, though it is also up in 2018 regardless.

[Littlefinger]

Rep wins Iowa roughly 60-40. Slight Dem improvement from ‘16

[kph14]

Any results from Iowa yet?

56-44 R over 20 points improvement from 2016

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Isn't this area super elastic though? Swung hard for Trump but if you go back 10 years candidates like Jim Doyle were sweeping the Western part of the state including this district.

[LimoLiberal]

Rep wins Iowa roughly 60-40. Slight Dem improvement from ‘16

Nope, 55-45: https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/953465387240259585
20 point shift in a district Trump won 62-32

Massive night for Democrats in the midwest.

[Dr. Arch]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Isn't this area super elastic though? Swung hard for Trump but if you go back 10 years candidates like Jim Doyle were sweeping the Western part of the state including this district.

That's an eternity ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Isn't Perry O Hooper Jr. just a total living God on earth?

[Virginiá]

There's a special for SD-01, a district with comparable or slightly less R partisanship in NE Wisconsin (Green Bay area but not including Green Bay), before the 2018 GE also. That could make it significantly easier if the Democrats can win there, though it is also up in 2018 regardless.

The Obama numbers are actually a tad bit better in SD-01 than 10, so that's a plus I suppose. That seat wasn't up in 2016 though, so wouldn't they have to run for the special then immediately run again for November? That might be hard to win 2 times in a row.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Isn't this area super elastic though? Swung hard for Trump but if you go back 10 years candidates like Jim Doyle were sweeping the Western part of the state including this district.

That's an eternity ago.

I'm still not totally sold on this. Obama won Dunn in 2012 and was pretty close in most of the rest of this district that year. I'm just as excited as anyone for this win (actually maybe more because I've always had a fondness for Wisconsin) but this isn't unprecedented for a Democrat to win here.

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

Minor quibble but this area is more Plains than Rust Belt. St. Croix County is basically Twin Cities exurbs.

[Ebsy]

All counties reporting:

[GlobeSoc]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

[Tintrlvr]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Isn't this area super elastic though? Swung hard for Trump but if you go back 10 years candidates like Jim Doyle were sweeping the Western part of the state including this district.

That's an eternity ago.

I'm still not totally sold on this. Obama won Dunn in 2012 and was pretty close in most of the rest of this district that year. I'm just as excited as anyone for this win (actually maybe more because I've always had a fondness for Wisconsin) but this isn't unprecedented for a Democrat to win here.

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

Minor quibble but this area is more Great Plains than Rust Belt. St. Croix County is basically Twin Cities exurbs.

This area actually trended less R than Wisconsin as a whole in 2016. St. Croix County almost trended D. So 2016 was not unrepresentative of the district's history, relative to the entire state.

[Dr. Arch]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

Very well. Western WI is Baldwin's strong suit, and it shows that it's still as elastic as it has been historically.

[GlobeSoc]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

Very well. Western WI is Baldwin's strong suit, and it shows that it's still as elastic as it has been historically.

I meant state senate, not US senate. Sorry about that

[Dr. Arch]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

Very well. Western WI is Baldwin's strong suit, and it shows that it's still as elastic as it has been historically.

I meant state senate, not US senate. Sorry about that

Well, it means that Democrats stand a chance at picking it up as well, even through the gerrymander. If the maps are struck down by the supreme court, and the swings are similar across the state, it's practically a guarantee.

[LimoLiberal]

Final SD-10 Numbers:

Polk: 3133-2883 Jarchow (R)
Burnett: 722-500 Jarchow (R)
Pierce: 1238-459 Schachtner (D)
Dunn: 1464-675 Schachtner (D)
St Croix: 6156-4918 Schachtner (D)

12241-9907 Schachtner (D)
55.3-44.7 (+10)

Shift of 27 points from 2016 election, where Trump won 55-38 (+17).

[Dr. Arch]

Final SD-10 Numbers:

Polk: 3133-2883 Jarchow (R)
Burnett: 722-500 Jarchow (R)
Pierce: 1238-459 Schachtner (D)
Dunn: 1464-675 Schachtner (D)
St Croix: 6156-4918 Schachtner (D)

12241-9907 Schachtner (D)
55.3-44.7 (+10)

Shift of 27 points from 2016 election, where Trump won 55-38 (+17).

The seat went +27 R in the state senate in 2016, so it's even bigger--a 37 point shift.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

District 58: Republicans win 57-43 http://www.co.washington.wi.us/uploads/docs/Finalelectionsummaryreport1-16-18.pdf

Democrats won District 66 unopposed.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Up:

January 23, 2018
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 35   

[mcmikk]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

Very well. Western WI is Baldwin's strong suit, and it shows that it's still as elastic as it has been historically.

This. This election only reinforces that Western WI is swingy as it has always been, and it is not gone for Democrats quite yet. Congratulations on your 7-point easy race, Senator Baldwin.

[Kamala]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.