State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[jman123]

.

[mds32]

Two elections will occur next week:

Senate   NH   16   7/25/17            
Senate   MA   MDL 4   7/25/17

Mississippi HD 108 as well, a safe GOP district which went 77-23 for the GOP when it was last up in 2015. DailyKos does not have Presidential numbers for Mississippi LDs.

NH Senate 16 is an important swing district. Democrats won 51-49 in 2016, Clinton carried the district 47.69 to Trump's 47.37. Obama lost it to Romney 49-50. Will be the most interesting contest.

Massachusetts MDL 4 is a safe Democratic district that the GOP doesn't normally contest. Last time it was, Dems won it 68-32 in 2012. Obama won it 60-38.5 and Clinton carried it 62-33.

I predict....
MS-HD-108
Kelly (R) 42%
Wilkes (R)30%
Frazier (D) 28%

NH-SD-16
Cavanaugh (D) 53% Boutin (R) 46% Dubrow (L) 1%

MA-SD-MDL4
Friedman (D) 87% Jackson (G) 13%

[windjammer]

When will we have the results tonight?

[The Other Castro]

When will we have the results tonight?

Poll close in 10 minutes, so not too long after.

[_]

NH one will probably be 54-46 Dem.

I'm pulling for 50.1-49.9 R.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When will we have the results tonight?

Poll close in 10 minutes, so not too long after.

Maybe in NH, but polls are still open for another hour in MA/MS.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When will we have the results tonight?

Poll close in 10 minutes, so not too long after.

Maybe in NH, but polls are still open for another hour in MA/MS.

Could you please provide links for live results of both elections, thank you.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

When will we have the results tonight?

Poll close in 10 minutes, so not too long after.

Maybe in NH, but polls are still open for another hour in MA/MS.

Could you please provide links for live results of both elections, thank you.

Massachusetts (link should be active when polls close)  https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm


I don't believe Mississippi and NH show live results on their SOS sites.

Edit Florida: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Special/ 

[The Other Castro]

Some results coming in from NH now. There are 7 precincts, here is one of them:

Candia:
Boutin (R) 426, Cavanaugh (D) 307, Dubrow (L) 14

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/new-hampshire-state-senate-16-special-election/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    53.5%   1,245
David Boutin (Republican)    45.2%   1,052
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.3%   31

[windjammer]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    53.5%   1,245
David Boutin (Republican)    45.2%   1,052
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.3%   31

Canaugh wins by 9-12 points. Oh wait, it's Kevin Cavanaugh? Okay, 7-8 points then.

Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    58.7%   3,204
David Boutin (Republican)    40.3%   2,200
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.1%   58

[The Other Castro]

Yeah that leap was from this precinct that came in:

Machester Ward 1:
Cavanaugh (D) 1188, Boutin (R) 707, Dubrow (L) 132

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/889987200594661376

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: Cavanaugh wins NH 16 SPECIAL:

Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    58.7%   3,204
David Boutin (Republican)    40.3%   2,200
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.1%   58

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Manchester 1
Boutin 707
Cavanaugh 1188
Manchester 2
Boutin 441
Cavanaugh 771
Bow
Boutin 626
Cavanaugh 938

[Nyvin]

Looks like Cavanaugh might win by 15 points...depending on what comes out of Dunbarton and Hooksett.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    58.3%   3,649
David Boutin (Republican)    40.6%   2,536
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.1%   69

Manch 12 goes to Cavanaugh 445 to Boutin 336

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Florida so far. Precincts are listed at 0% reporting, so holding off on any calls.

State Senator, District 40
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   5,605   
57.09%
Alex Diaz de la Portilla   REP   2,670   
27.19%
Lorenzo J. Palomares   REP   1,543   
15.72%
9,818   Total


State Senator, District 40
Democrat
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Ana Rivas Logan   DEM   2,289   
32.41%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   4,773   
67.59%
7,062   Total

State Representative, District 116
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Mallea   REP   2,231   
46.62%
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   2,555   
53.38%
4,786   Total

[windjammer]

Florida so far. Precincts are listed at 0% reporting, so holding off on any calls.

State Senator, District 40
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   5,605   
57.09%
Alex Diaz de la Portilla   REP   2,670   
27.19%
Lorenzo J. Palomares   REP   1,543   
15.72%
9,818   Total


State Senator, District 40
Democrat
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Ana Rivas Logan   DEM   2,289   
32.41%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   4,773   
67.59%
7,062   Total

State Representative, District 116
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Mallea   REP   2,231   
46.62%
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   2,555   
53.38%
4,786   Total

Link please?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Florida so far. Precincts are listed at 0% reporting, so holding off on any calls.

State Senator, District 40
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   5,605   
57.09%
Alex Diaz de la Portilla   REP   2,670   
27.19%
Lorenzo J. Palomares   REP   1,543   
15.72%
9,818   Total


State Senator, District 40
Democrat
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Ana Rivas Logan   DEM   2,289   
32.41%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   4,773   
67.59%
7,062   Total

State Representative, District 116
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Mallea   REP   2,231   
46.62%
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   2,555   
53.38%
4,786   Total

Link please?

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Special/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With 93% of the vote now in, I am calling all the Florida races:

State Senator, District 40
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   7,604   
57.71%
Alex Diaz de la Portilla   REP   3,385   
25.69%
Lorenzo J. Palomares   REP   2,188   
16.6%
13,177   Total

State Senator, District 40
Democrat
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Ana Rivas Logan   DEM   2,912   
29.42%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   6,985   
70.58%
9,897   Total

State Representative, District 116
Republican
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Mallea   REP   2,913   
45.18%
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   3,534   
54.82%
6,447   Total

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basically everything is in now:


Candidate   Percent   Votes
Kevin Cavanaugh (Democratic)    54.7%   4,746
David Boutin (Republican)    44.0%   3,814
Jason Dubrow (Libertarian)    1.3%   109
8,669 Total Votes

Update: 7/25/2017 8:12PM
All precincts have now reported,.
Dunbarton goes to Boutin barely, 266 to 247.

We are waiting on an unofficial update from the Manchester clerk, who has a few more votes to add than what we heard announced at the precincts.

Update: 7/25/2017 8:04PM
Boutin wins Hooksett, barely:
1,012 to Cavanaugh's 850 votes.

[Ebsy]

9 point swing from 2016 result folks. 10-11 point swing (depending on rounding) from presidential result.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does anyone have anything on MA/MS?

[Ebsy]

Does anyone have anything on MA/MS?

There is no link posted on the Secretary of the Commonwealth's website: https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

[Virginiá]

I'm feeling real confident about the New Hampshire legislature flipping next year. If you applied a 9 point swing across the board in state Senate races, you'd get about 6 seats flipping R -> D, which is 3 more than necessary for Democrats to take control. 11 point swing and you get maybe 7 or 8 seats. By no means am I suggesting you would see a uniform swing, but Republicans really only barely held their ground in the state Senate in terms of their win margins, so it's  hard to see them holding on in 2018. Ditto for the state House.