Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

[Gass3268]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

Interesting that polling is showing Trump doing much worse in MI and WI than OH.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 30th)

Approve 41% (-/-)
Disapprove 53% (-1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Thank you for the name change.

[pbrower2a]

Thank you for the name change.

Ditto.

[Tintrlvr]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

Interesting that polling is showing Trump doing much worse in MI and WI than OH.

This is probably just MI polling sucking again.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

Approve 12%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

It looks like a misprint. Probably 32% approval, which is still execrable. I'll accept 32%. 61% disapproval?  That suggests a collapse of Trump support.

I don't think it's a misprint.  The story says "the percentage of Michiganders giving Trump positive job ratings fell from 18% to 12%."

[pbrower2a]

Well, I don't have a category on my map for anything less than 35%.  But that puts President Trump disapproval in Michigan in the same category as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.

Gallup polls have been hovering around 40% approval. The 61% negative job approval rating  suggests that he would lose Michigan worse than McGovern did and almost as badly as Goldwater did. Add 6% to the approval rating that I think he has, and he would end up losing 61-38.

[Holmes]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

[pbrower2a]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

For Michiganders, "Make America Great Again" might mean 'bring back the economic prowess of the auto industry and have most of it in Michigan'.

The Oldsmobile, Plymouth, and Pontiac marques are not coming back to life -- let alone Packard.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Civitas (R) poll of North Carolina registered voters (change from mid-April):

Trump Approval:

Approve 42% (-6)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Cooper Approval:

Approve 61% (+2)
Disapprove 24%

North Carolina is best Carolina!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

[JA]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

At this point, I couldn't even imagine Trump winning Michigan against Clinton, honestly. That state is too far gone; he'd need to face an even worse Democrat or perform some economic miracle over the next 3 years.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

At this point, I couldn't even imagine Trump winning Michigan against Clinton, honestly. That state is too far gone; he'd need to face an even worse Democrat or perform some economic miracle over the next 3 years.

Well, MI polling had always been way off. I also don't think he wouldn't win it now, but who knows? I never expected him to win there in November.

[pbrower2a]

I think there's a difference between "giving a positive job rating" and approving. Some Republicans could give him a negative job rating but still approve, for example. But I could see a violent swing against Trump in Michigan  (and the upper midwest in general).

Indeed. That same article says earlier that 37% of Michiganers have a favorable opinion of Trump. Unless Clinton tries for a rematch, I can't see Trump winning the state again if he runs in 2020.

At this point, I couldn't even imagine Trump winning Michigan against Clinton, honestly. That state is too far gone; he'd need to face an even worse Democrat or perform some economic miracle over the next 3 years.

So there might be a difference between the vague promises that he made of prosperity (Let's build badly-made gas-guzzling vehicles in Michigan again for people who really want them!) and the reality (people are buying smaller, less-costly cars, and the automobile assembly is no longer so heavily concentrated in Michigan), and the reality (Michigan will still be screwed by the Right).

Michigan pays for bad decisions made in good times, like failing to invest in education (to prepare  kids to do something other than work in an auto plant) and over-investing in urban expressways that took middle-income people out of Detroit and its tax base.



 

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

40 (-1)
54 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

Michigan will be for Trump in 2020 what Indiana was for Obama in 2012 -- a state that people will be amazed that he won when he won it and will be amazed by how badly he loses it. But there will be a big difference between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2020: Obama will have done what he promised and will have been stropped from doing much more, but Trump will have betrayed his promises to many of his voters. Obama lost only two states that he won in 2008 and still won decisively. Trump has the shakiest win of the Presidency of anyone and will be able to win re-election only if the election is rigged.

Trump did little better than Dukakis in 1988 or McCain in 2008... and he has little room for error.

[Tintrlvr]

Civitas (R) poll of North Carolina registered voters (change from mid-April):

Trump Approval:

Approve 42% (-6)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Cooper Approval:

Approve 61% (+2)
Disapprove 24%

North Carolina is best Carolina!

Low bar given the competition.

[Hindsight was 2020]

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Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: Epic/MRA for Detroit Free Press.  http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/31/poll-michigans-view-trump-countrys-direction-faltering/355614001/

I don't find a link to the actual results, but the story seems to indicate the following Trump approval ratings (change since Feb):

Approve: 12% (-6) ("positive job rating")
Disapprove: 61% (+5) ("negative job rating")

It looks like a misprint. Probably 32% approval, which is still execrable. I'll accept 32%. 61% disapproval?  That suggests a collapse of Trump support.

quote author=heatcharger link=topic=264554.msg5675692#msg5675692 date=1496237714]
Civitas (R) poll of North Carolina registered voters (change from mid-April):

Trump Approval:

Approve 42% (-6)
Disapprove 53% (+7)

Cooper Approval:

Approve 61% (+2)
Disapprove 24%

It looks as if Democrats are gaining and Trump is doing badly in states that he just barely won in 2016.



Tennessee, Vanderbilt University

The poll of 1,005 registered voters also shows that support for Trump remains strong among Republicans at 86 percent and self-identified Tea Party members at 90 percent.

But Trump's positive standing among Democrats is just 10 percent and 49 percent among self-identified independents.

Trump handily won the state in November with 61.1 percent of the vote over Democrat Hillary Clinton's 34.9 percent.

The Vanderbilt Poll was conducted May 4-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

In November polling, 54 percent of Tennesseans thought Trump would change things for the better in Washington. Now, just 41 percent think that.

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2017/may/30/poll-shows-majority-tennesseans/430855/



Does anyone remember when Tennessee was the most politically-progressive state in the South? I do. That's when it had Senators Gore and Sasser.  That seems like an eternity ago.

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I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[/quote]

[Hindsight was 2020]

Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

Not predicting that Democrats will pick up 40+ seats in 2018 /=/ Refusing to believe that Trump will damage the CA GOP even more than it already is. CA is going to get pretty ugly in 2018 and 2020, no doubt about it. I'm not sure how many seats they will actually pick up there, though.

Yeah but at the same time I find it hard how in California alone with 7-8 seats you think the damage for the GOP in total will be 9-15 seats. NY has 5 seats I could think of that could be swept away an the suburbs in Penn don't look good either

[Beet]

California must switch to partisan gerrymandering. So should New York.

[Gass3268]

California must switch to partisan gerrymandering. So should New York.

Probably impossible in both (CA - Commission created by initiative / NY - Republican run Senate)

[Beet]

California must switch to partisan gerrymandering. So should New York.

Probably impossible in both (CA - Commission created by initiative / NY - Republican run Senate)

The initiative in CA should be repealed.
In NY, the mainstream Democrats should make a deal with the IDC.