Nov. 2017 general election predictions?

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA:
Northam 50%
Gillespie: 44%
Hyra: 6%

NJ:
Murphy: 62%
Guadagno: 35%

[Panhandle Progressive]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.

That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.

I too think Herring is overated. Everyone is biting their nails in gov and lt gov races, but nearly everything and everyone (including early polls) are shrugging and saying, oh that guy, lol, he's a shoo in. Something makes me not buy it... I still think he will win, but by small margins, and possibly a plurality, though probably a slim majority.

I agree plus with the name john Adams that should help him out.

VA Dems should sweep all three races.

As a reminder of turnout: (June primary #'s)
Total D votes for Gov: 543,000
Total R votes for Gov: 366,000
177,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Total D votes for Lt Gov: 514,000
Total R votes for Lt Gov: 355,000
159,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Trump Fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. Can't wait to see the tweets from Trump on election eve.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Alright take it to the bank on these results
Virginia's races
ED GILLESPIE 48.72%
RALPH NORTHAM 48.31%

JILL VOGEL 48.26%
JUSTIN FAIRFAX 51.05%

JOHN ADAMS 47.84%
MARK HERRING 50.43%

That's quite a bold prediction there friend. Yet, it is still within the realm of possibility, hopefully you are wrong though.

That's why I made these results actually think the governors race could be even closer like Washington in 2004. The one I'm most unsure about is the Adams herring race just because of how close it was last time.

I too think Herring is overated. Everyone is biting their nails in gov and lt gov races, but nearly everything and everyone (including early polls) are shrugging and saying, oh that guy, lol, he's a shoo in. Something makes me not buy it... I still think he will win, but by small margins, and possibly a plurality, though probably a slim majority.

I agree plus with the name john Adams that should help him out.

VA Dems should sweep all three races.

As a reminder of turnout: (June primary #'s)
Total D votes for Gov: 543,000
Total R votes for Gov: 366,000
177,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Total D votes for Lt Gov: 514,000
Total R votes for Lt Gov: 355,000
159,000 Vote Lead for the Dems

Trump Fatigue and Dem motivation should create a situation where Dems finish even stronger than their respective primary percentages. Can't wait to see the tweets from Trump on election eve.

I really honestly think the polls on trump are wrong because look at RCP polls of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania Hillary was ment to win Wisconsin by 6 points she lost by 1 point

As for Virginia if trump weren't the nominee Rubio or kaisch heck I think even ted Cruz would have won barely trump was worst fit for Virginia

As for the dems sweeping it is 100% possible that northam wins but I honestly think ed Gillespie is going to eke it out barely but right now I think there is a shot it becomes the closest governors race in history.

I agree that Rubio or Kasich would have done better than Trump, but probably not enough to win the state. As far as Cruz, he would have been stomped here in 2016. Most Virginians (myself included) prefer moderate politicians from both parties. Demographic changes since 2004 have shifted enough that I can't even see someone similar to George W. Bush being able to win the Virginia of today.

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA-GOV

Gillespie (R)  49.18%
Northam (D) 48.92%

IN YOUR DREAMS!

[Panhandle Progressive]

Virginia Governor
48.26% Ed Gillespie (R)
47.95% Ralph Northam (D)

lol

[Panhandle Progressive]

Virginia Gubernatorial
Gillespie 51%, Northam 46%

You should explain why you think the Republican is going to win by 5% when Democrats enjoy every advantage this cycle. Even Hillary won our state by over 5% and you think Gillespie is going to win by roughly this same margin? Oh pulease. This is the New Dominion. Northam's win will make 4 wins out of our last 5 governor races.

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Given recent events i think Gillespie will edge it out but it will be within 1-2 points. Maybe even a recount.

Why would the indictments help Gillespie?

Somethin somethin outrage about a truck ad that Bill Kristol types from out of state saw somethin somethin

lol

[Panhandle Progressive]

VA-GOV: Northam 48.72-48.1

VA LT.-GOV: Fairfax 50-45

VA ATN-GEN: Herring 52-47

NJ-GOV: Murphy 61-36

I revise my prediction for NJ-GOV to Murphy 55-41, thanks to some blowback from his Bernie-esque campaign as of late.

Also Vogel beats Fairfax 50-49

All of the statewide races in VA will be easy holds for the party. The Democrats will win each by a minimum of 6% and a maximum of 10%.

I'm sticking with this. This is my final prediction.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I'm going to try to keep to whole numbers, only splitting digits in half.

VA Gov

52% Northam
46.5% Gillespie
1.5% Hyra

VA Lt Gov

51% Fairfax
49% Vogel

VA Attorney General

53% Herring
47% Adams

VA HoD
D Gain of 8 - 10 with HD 100 as a potential 11th

NJ Gov
58.5% Murphy
39% Guadango
2.5% Others

VA HoD - way off, but probably better then most. I don't think anyone expected 15+. For someone who was following DDHQ constantly on this, I arguably only really though the Dem wave would make gains in NOVA and a few other places. Didn't expect the VA Beach/Richmond flips.

Don't beat yourself up too much over this one. The most optimistic pundits didn't go any higher and most had a maximum gain of 5 or 6. So I'd say that's about as good as any prediction for this came.