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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Nov. 2017 general election predictions?
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 23913 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 13, 2017, 11:54:04 am »
« edited: November 05, 2017, 01:03:56 pm by MT Treasurer »

VA-GOV

49.7% Northam (D)
47.5% Gillespie (R)
2.8% Hyra (L)

VA-LG


51.0% Fairfax (D)
48.6% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.5% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)
4.5% Others

New York mayoral election

69% DeBlasio (D, inc.)
31% Others
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2017, 12:07:36 pm »

Now get really into the weeds and predict legislatures too hehe
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Kamala
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2017, 12:10:11 pm »

Hmm, I really don't see Gillespie doing all that well. While I know he over performed polls in 2014, he still didn't manage to unseat Warner. Considering that was a heavy Republican year, I would say his 2014 performance, 48.3%, is closer to a ceiling than it is a floor.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2017, 12:14:41 pm »

Hmm, I really don't see Gillespie doing all that well. While I know he over performed polls in 2014, he still didn't manage to unseat Warner. Considering that was a heavy Republican year, I would say his 2014 performance, 48.3%, is closer to a ceiling than it is a floor.

I disagree because the national GOP never really invested in that race, thinking it was Safe D.  If they had, we very likely would have a Senator Gillespie right now.  I think that Gillespie can win that race, even if Virginia is trending away from us.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2017, 12:27:22 pm »

Northern Virginia was pretty kind to Gillespie in 2014. With Trump as president, they won't be nearly as favourable to the Republican. I'd wager on either Democrat easily winning by high single digits or low double-digits. Setting the stage for Tim Kaine winning by over 20% in his re-election campaign next year.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2017, 12:41:51 pm »

VA-GOV:

50.8% Northam
46.3% Gillespie
2.9% Other

49.9% Perriello
47.3% Gillespie
2.8% Other

52.7% Northam/Perriello
44.2% Stewart
3.1% Other

I think the third-party vote is gonna be much smaller than 2013, although I'd laugh if Sarvis ran again.

VA-HOD:

D+11 with Northam, D+6 with Perriello

NJ-GOV:

59% Murphy
39% Guadagno

NYC-Mayor:

De Blasio landslide

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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2017, 12:56:51 pm »

VA-GOV

49.8% Northam (D)
47.8% Gillespie (R)

If Perriello somehow wins the Democratic nomination:

49.2% Perriello (D)
48.5% Gillespie (R)

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot (like in 2009):

50.8% Northam (D)
49.2% Gillespie (R)

50.2% Perriello (D)
49.8% Gillespie (R)

NJ-GOV

58% Murphy (D)
40% Guadagno (R)

New York mayoral election

78% DeBlasio (D, inc.)
22% Republican and Others/Who care
Are you serious? You really believe VA GOV is going to be so close with Trump at -15 in approval right now?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2017, 02:47:15 pm »
« Edited: May 13, 2017, 09:50:10 pm by Virginia »

Are you serious? You really believe VA GOV is going to be so close with Trump at -15 in approval right now?

iirc, Trump actually has an even worse approval rating in Virginia - something like 20+ points underwater. I'm more inclined to think the Democratic nominee wins by a comfortable amount (similar to Clinton, or more), with maybe a ceiling around ~10 points in the best case scenario. Gillespie had a favorable environment in 2014, and while he did well then I don't think that means he will this time. Though, I'd like to see some polls once the candidates are chosen.

Murphy - double digits easy. 12 - 16 points is my guess for now.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2017, 03:24:17 pm »

VA-GOV
51% Either Democrat
46% Gillespie

NJ-Gov
61% Murphy
37% Guadagno

New York Mayor
68% Deblolsio
32% Scattered Losers
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2017, 11:00:33 am »

Virginia Gov
Perriello 56%
Gillespie 42%

Northam 54%
Gillespie 44%

New Jersey Gov
Wisniewski 62%
Guadagno 36%

Murphy 58%
Guadagno 40%
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Duke of York
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2017, 11:10:26 am »
« Edited: May 14, 2017, 12:12:29 pm by Duke of York »

Virginia Gov
Perriello 55
Gillespie 45

Northam 52
Gillespie 48%

New Jersey Gov

Murphy 56%
Guadagno 43%

New York Mayor
De Blasio 53
Malliotakis 47
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2017, 01:25:59 pm »

VA-GOV
Northam or Periello 52%
Gillespie 46%

NJ-GOV
Murphy 62%
Guadagno 37%

NYC-Mayor
DeBlasio ~75%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2017, 03:22:53 pm »

VA-GOV
Ralph Northam +5 against Ed Gillespie

NJ-GOV
Phil Murphy +17 against Kim Guadagno
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2017, 06:01:03 pm »

Wait, TN Volunteer, you've been saying that VA is out of reach for Republicans. These look like tossup numbers.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2017, 09:00:39 am »
« Edited: May 17, 2017, 09:03:35 am by AKCreative »

Virginia almost never votes in a governor of the same party as the White House,  2013 is literally the only exception in modern history.

Trump is utterly hated in Virginia too,  so the Republican's chances there look pretty darn small, no matter how good Gillespie supposedly is there.  (Which I disagree with,  Gillespie is a mediocre candidate)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2017, 09:24:41 am »

Virginia almost never votes in a governor of the same party as the White House,  2013 is literally the only exception in modern history.

Trump is utterly hated in Virginia too,  so the Republican's chances there look pretty darn small, no matter how good Gillespie supposedly is there.  (Which I disagree with,  Gillespie is a mediocre candidate)

Cooch probably wins in 2013 if it wasn't for the Government shutdown.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2017, 09:26:18 am »

Northam wins by 5

Murphy wins by 15
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #17 on: May 17, 2017, 09:32:11 am »

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48
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Cynthia
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2017, 04:03:34 pm »

VA
Northam 53.3
Gillespie 45.2

Perriello 54.0
Gillespie 44.7

NJ
Murphy 61.7
Guadagno 37.5
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2017, 07:25:39 pm »

VA

Governor: Perriello 53%/Gillespie 44%
Dems hold LG and AG
State House: 54R/46D

NJ

Governor: Murphy 58.5%/Guadagno 40.3%

State House: D+4
State Senate: D+2
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2017, 08:01:42 pm »

Virginia almost never votes in a governor of the same party as the White House,  2013 is literally the only exception in modern history.

Trump is utterly hated in Virginia too,  so the Republican's chances there look pretty darn small, no matter how good Gillespie supposedly is there.  (Which I disagree with,  Gillespie is a mediocre candidate)

Gillespie, like Cory Gardner, was a warm body at the right time - well, almost right time in Gillespie's case. Sadly for him (and good for the people of Virginia), I don't think magic is going to happen twice - now people are going to actually pay attention to how much of a partisan hack he is and also affiliate him with the President who Virginians (particularly in Northern Virginia) hate.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2017, 10:11:52 pm »

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2017, 11:02:23 pm »

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.

That sounds pretty reasonable. To lose 14 seats would take a massive wave, imo. Clinton just barely carried a majority of HoD districts, and it is relatively common for an entrenched majority party to carry districts their party's presidential candidate lost for some time before actually losing them downballot.

I'd put a ceiling for GOP HoD losses at around 10 or so tops, but to be honest, if there is any year where Democrats could max out that ceiling, or even surpass it, it might just be this year. Trump is extremely unpopular in VA and this growing universe of scandals he is enveloped in is really dragging down the GOP brand at a historic pace.

We'll see soon enough Tongue
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2017, 08:50:28 am »

VA
Northam wins by 10.
Republicans hold the House 52-48

I think that HoD prediction is a bit bullish. I think Reps lose 5-7 seats.
I mean, Clinton carried 51 house seats, and 46 by more than 5 points. Iniially my prediction was more 45-55 but considering Trump has a 35% approval ratings in VA, I really expect VA republicans to suffer from many losses.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2017, 09:03:55 am »

VA-Gov
✓ Northam or Periello 51.3%
Gillespie 45.9%

NJ-GOV
✓ Murphy 58.8%
Guadagno 37.4%

NYC-Mayor
✓DeBlasio ~75%
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