2017-18 State/Federal Special Election Results & Swings (UPDATED)

[kph14]

SD-6 is a marginal Republican-held seat that includes the territory of HD-42 above (perhaps explaining why only one candidate filed there) plus the rest of Smyrna, bits of Cobb County connecting it to Fulton County, north Atlanta and Sandy Springs. It could very plausibly vote for a Democrat and is easily the most competitive seat, although it is unclear to me how serious any of the Democratic candidates are. I would call it a Toss-up.

I'd rate GA-SD6 Lean D. The district went 55-40 Clinton and the incumbent State Senator barely eked out a 52-48 victory in 2016. The Democratic nominee is running again, as well as a second serious Democratic candidate. With five Republican candidates running even a D v. D - runoff is possible

[kph14]

HD-117 is a very safe Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties and suburbs of Athens in Oconee County. All Democratic attention nearby will be elsewhere. Safe R and will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican).
HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are gerrymandered into HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat.

Interestingly, the last presidential election would imply the opposite scenario. HD-117 was 49-46 Trump and HD-119 was 51-44 Trump. Can you explain the discrepancy between those up-ballot results and your ratings?

[Tintrlvr]

HD-117 is a very safe Republican seat covering what might be called exurbs of Athens in Barrow and Jackson Counties and suburbs of Athens in Oconee County. All Democratic attention nearby will be elsewhere. Safe R and will be decided in the jungle as there are only two candidates (one Democrat and one Republican).
HD-119 is a likely Republican seat that takes some of the more marginal parts of Athens and attaches them to rural Oconee County (the most suburban parts of Oconee, which are also moving sharply towards the Democrats, are gerrymandered into HD-117). Plausibly could be competitive in this environment but probably will not be. Likely R, Democrat should make it to the runoff as there are three Republicans and only one Democrat.

Interestingly, the last presidential election would imply the opposite scenario. HD-117 was 49-46 Trump and HD-119 was 51-44 Trump. Can you explain the discrepancy between those up-ballot results and your ratings?

Just my confusion. For some reason I did not realize it also contains part of Athens proper. Definitely competitive.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

When is the OH-12 election happening?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When is the OH-12 election happening?

The Ohio SoS says that the special election can't be scheduled until Tiberi actually resigns.  Source

[Young Conservative]

How can I make a precinct level map? Private message me how if you can. I want to focus on a few counties

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat, Patty Schachtner, pulls off a massive upset by flipping the 10th Senate district in Wisconsin (55%-38%). Trump won the seat by 17 points in 2016.

[icemanj]

Democrat Linda Belcher has defeated Rebecca Johnson in the KY 49th House District Special Election by more than a 2:1 margin (Dem Gain)

twitter.com/KySecofState/status/966110438973956096

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Limo will be happy!

[Adam Griffin]

Just a heads-up: I'm going to start adding all elections since 9/12/17 to the OP tonight and get this thread caught up.

Also, I'm very grateful that the character limit has been doubled: I'll be able to restore the original text-based format to the post instead of screencapping a preview!

[Adam Griffin]

All 2017 specials have been added to the OP, along with their 2016 presidential margins; I still need to add their 2016 legislative margins, 2017 special margins and swings, which I'll be wrapping up over the next couple of days.

After that, there's only about 25 from 2018 to complete and this tracker will be 100% back on track!


Fun fact: not sure anybody noticed, but Democrats have flipped 6 legislative seats in 2018, which was enough to finally bring the Democrats' state legislative deficit below 1000 seats for the first time in several years.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

All 2017 specials have been added to the OP, along with their 2016 presidential margins; I still need to add their 2016 legislative margins, 2017 special margins and swings, which I'll be wrapping up over the next couple of days.

After that, there's only about 25 from 2018 to complete and this tracker will be 100% back on track!


Fun fact: not sure anybody noticed, but Democrats have flipped 6 legislative seats in 2018, which was enough to finally bring the Democrats' state legislative deficit below 1000 seats for the first time in several years.

Question: who here believes that Democrats will have a quadruple digit state legislature pickup sum in 2018?

[Adam Griffin]

All 2017 state legislative races have been added.

Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9
Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1

[Gustaf]

All 2017 state legislative races have been added.

Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9
Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1

This is relative to 2016 presidential right?

[Adam Griffin]

All 2017 state legislative races have been added.

Average congressional swing, 2017: D+15.9
Average state legislative swing, 2017: D+9.1

This is relative to 2016 presidential right?

Relative to an average of 1) the 2016 presidential results in those districts and 2) the results of the last legislative election for those districts (most of those were held in 2016, but some were in 2014 or 2015).

[jamestroll]

Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far.

But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest.

[Adam Griffin]

Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far.

But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest.

Keep in mind that Trump's margin is only half the average used to calculate swing in most special elections listed; the other half is the margin in the legislative race itself in 2016 (or in some cases, 2014/2015).

2017 state legislative (special election) swing by region:
Midwest: D+16.0
South: D+9.1
Northeast: D+7.7
West: D+1.5

National: D+9.1

[Gass3268]

Could you show the average by region in the United States? I do believe it is accurate as of now that the Midwest had the largest swing thus far.

But I bet a lot of that swing is just a correction because Trump may have over performed in the Midwest.

Keep in mind that Trump's margin is only half the average used to calculate swing in most special elections listed; the other half is the margin in the legislative race itself in 2016 (or in some cases, 2014/2015).

2017 state legislative (special election) swing by region:
Midwest: D+16.0
South: D+9.1
Northeast: D+7.7
West: D+1.5

National: D+9.1

How many races were there per region? I can't remember there being that many out west.

[Adam Griffin]

How many races were there per region? I can't remember there being that many out west.

8 in the West. I can't remember exact figures for all (I counted earlier and then discarded), but (I believe) there were 34 in the South, 24 in the Northeast and 12 in the Midwest, for a total of 78 state legislative races in 2017 with opposition.

[Adam Griffin]

Alrighty, we're entirely up-to-date! For those who were wondering:

Average state legislative swing, 2017 (78 measurable elections): D+9.1
Average state legislative swing, 2018 (21 measurable elections): D+17.6

Average state legislative swing, cycle-to-date (99 measurable elections): D+10.9



Average state legislative swing, 2018 (by region):
Midwest: D+25.1
South: D+12.7
Northeast: D+10.0
West: N/A

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a chart showing the cycle's average swing at the end of each month from January 2017 through the end of February:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Note that 2012 presidential election margins so far have been more predictive of special election results than 2016 ones.

[Nyvin]

Here's a chart showing the cycle's average swing at the end of each month from January 2017 through the end of February:

You should imprint Trump's approval rating over the same timeframe on top of this.

[The Other Castro]

[Holmes]

Not much of a correlation.