WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Continential]

The Real question is if she does better then the Democratic Nominee.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

The Real question is if she does better then the Democratic Nominee.

She would almost certainly do worse than the Democratic presidential nominee in the state, probably only by like 5-6 points though.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here we go

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1138498770377691136

If she wins the nomination Capito might actually clear 70% of the vote.

All is going according to my predictions for WV-2020 Sen here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Absolute Legend

If only Bill Nelson or Claire McCaskill survived. I'd trade one of them for this dude.

I don't agree. We still need Manchin, unfortunately. It would have been nice if Nelson survived though, he really should have. Having 48 Senators would make a world of difference over only having 47.

By the way, Ocasio-Cortez is staring daggers at him! I can't say I blame her.

I can't blame her much either. A lot of how Manchin acted at the sotu yesterday was cringe worthy and maybe even a little upsetting.

Wow! That means hell of a lot coming from you!

Was I satisfied seeing Ocasio pissed off? Duh. So it gave me a chuckle, and it was pretty brash and unique of Manchin which was cool to some extent and deserved my acknowledgement, because I have a spot in my heart for mavericks. But it made me nauseous to watch him go flirt with Kavanaugh at the start. Kavanaugh was a necessary evil in my opinion, and it is no longer necessary to be nice with him. It's also not an election year anymore, so he really did not have to put on a show either. Also it was unneeded (because he is no longer in election season) and embarrassing to watch him wink at Trump and even hang around for a handshake after what Trump has done to him. I don't mind his antics when it is an election season, as Pelosi says just win baby win, but when it is not needed anymore, I would be lying to myself and you if I said I was not at least a tad disappointed in some continued antics.

I agree. I still think Manchin could have gotten away with not voting for Kavanaugh, but I agree with you in nearly every other way. We need Manchin, but Manchin doesn't need to reach out to Trump and the GOP so much anymore.

He would have won by 7 points instead of the 3 he actually won by if he voted against Kavanaugh. There is a reason that while every Romney state Democratic Senator up for re-election in 2018 was in a state that elected Governors in Presidential years, Manchin was the only of the 5 to significantly underperform compared to the 2016 Democratic nominee for Governor in their state.

The king has spoken.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Absolute Legend

If only Bill Nelson or Claire McCaskill survived. I'd trade one of them for this dude.

I don't agree. We still need Manchin, unfortunately. It would have been nice if Nelson survived though, he really should have. Having 48 Senators would make a world of difference over only having 47.

By the way, Ocasio-Cortez is staring daggers at him! I can't say I blame her.

I can't blame her much either. A lot of how Manchin acted at the sotu yesterday was cringe worthy and maybe even a little upsetting.

Wow! That means hell of a lot coming from you!

Was I satisfied seeing Ocasio pissed off? Duh. So it gave me a chuckle, and it was pretty brash and unique of Manchin which was cool to some extent and deserved my acknowledgement, because I have a spot in my heart for mavericks. But it made me nauseous to watch him go flirt with Kavanaugh at the start. Kavanaugh was a necessary evil in my opinion, and it is no longer necessary to be nice with him. It's also not an election year anymore, so he really did not have to put on a show either. Also it was unneeded (because he is no longer in election season) and embarrassing to watch him wink at Trump and even hang around for a handshake after what Trump has done to him. I don't mind his antics when it is an election season, as Pelosi says just win baby win, but when it is not needed anymore, I would be lying to myself and you if I said I was not at least a tad disappointed in some continued antics.

I agree. I still think Manchin could have gotten away with not voting for Kavanaugh, but I agree with you in nearly every other way. We need Manchin, but Manchin doesn't need to reach out to Trump and the GOP so much anymore.

He would have won by 7 points instead of the 3 he actually won by if he voted against Kavanaugh. There is a reason that while every Romney state Democratic Senator up for re-election in 2018 was in a state that elected Governors in Presidential years, Manchin was the only of the 5 to significantly underperform compared to the 2016 Democratic nominee for Governor in their state.

This logic doesn't make sense to me. while I wish it wasn't the case, the fact is progressives can't win in deeply conservative states except for under exceptional cases. voting for Kavanaugh may have very well saved him from a narrow loss. also, the reason he did worse than Jim Justice is mostly just because Justice was even more conservative than Manchin and also a literal coal baron.

[LoneStarDem]

AOC does NOT control the Dems. In 50 years, she'll be forgotten.

[The Ex-Factor]

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is eyeing a possible exit from the Senate, and his decision could be a significant factor in which party controls the majority in 2021.

In moments of frustration, the centrist senator has gone so far as to tell colleagues he may leave the upper chamber before the end of this Congress, or after the 2020 elections.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/448287-manchin-eyes-senate-exit

[ElectionsGuy]

By the looks of it Manchin was begged to run for re-election when he really didn't want to. This will be the GOP's easiest pickup after Doug Jones if he does in fact exit. But if he runs for governor, Justice may have a race on his hands.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin don't you dare f$ck us like this buddy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not that bad, the law says that if a vacancy occurs, then it's a Gov appointment.  If GOP state assembly change the law, Ojeda, a blue dog will run in special election.

Biden is doing well in Ohio, if he wins, he will throw his support behind Ojeda, and Beshear is already beating Bevin. I feel confident Ojeda can win, in a Biden, not Trump Presidency

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ok, umm above post is nuts. If Manchin vacated, the only person with even a whisper's chance of holding the seat (don't dog on me you guys, I said whisper's chance, so we are talking like just under 5% chance as opposed to everyone elses negative chances lol) is Earl Ray Tomblin.

[Virginiá]

Best, most likely outcome for Democrats continues to inch towards aDemocratic White House, R Senate and D House...

..aka gridlock in the worst way, with a near-total blockade on judicial appointments and constant nitpicking of every single executive appointment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would be up to the GOP leadership if they change the law. Right now, it's a Governor appointment. 

[SnowLabrador]

It would be up to the GOP leadership if they change the law. Right now, it's a Governor appointment. 

They would change the law. And they don't even have to do it during the lame-duck period, since a simple majority can override a veto there. Manchin running for Governor again would be moronic.

[LoneStarDem]

It would be up to the GOP leadership if they change the law. Right now, it's a Governor appointment. 

They would NOT be that stupid because in 40 years from now, if the WV Dems take back control of the WV General Assembly, they could retaliate by having the Governor appoint a Dem (AZ GOP Legislature could have Dem Governor appoint GOPer United States Senator).

[IceSpear]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You once implied that you think Boomers in WV voted more on their racism more than previous generations in WV did lol.

The GOP is WV by the way is great. Capito is a Massive FF

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You and me were smelling it right.

[Pericles]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

[Alben Barkley]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You once implied that you think Boomers in WV voted more on their racism more than previous generations in WV did lol.

You mean he was completely right?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You once implied that you think Boomers in WV voted more on their racism more than previous generations in WV did lol.

I’m struggling to see the error in that implication

[MT Treasurer]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

Only obvious example is probably Maine? I don't know offhand, but I believe both Collins and Snowe were outrunning the current or immediately previous GOP nominees by about 50 points every time.

Since 2000, Maine might be it. You probably have to comb through the 90's to find more examples of blue state Republicans winning by that much.

Red state Dems have outran their nominees by 40 to 50 points a slew of times since 2000. The seats that come to mind -- both Dakotas, Arkansas, West Virginia, Montana, Nebraska.

[IceSpear]

Manchin still won though, and outrunning Hillary Clinton by 45 points is legitimately impressive, even if he didn't outrun her by 50 points or 55 points.

Yeah, when was the last time a blue state Republican Senator outran their last nominee by 45 points?

Susan Collins (2014): 52 points
Susan Collins (2008): 40 points
Olympia Snowe (2006): 62 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

So, what’s IceSpear's current take on this race?

Toss up. Manchin is overrated and the possibility of a last minute Morrisey surge is vastly underrated here and among the pundits.

But I realize there's no point in arguing this since Manchin won the July election and that's what truly matters to political junkies, so whatever. We'll see what happens.

If you meant WV-03, I still think it's lean/likely R. Ojeda will probably collapse once god emperor Trump endorses his opponent and all the Racist WV Hicks remember he's a member of the anti-white hate group i.e. the Democratic Party.

Damn, I forgot about this. WV is so predictable.

You once implied that you think Boomers in WV voted more on their racism more than previous generations in WV did lol.

I’m struggling to see the error in that implication

That’s saying Boomers a generation that where they grew up in an era where  racism become viewed as more and more unacceptable , and where the youngest boomers Turned 18 when the civil right act passed and 19 when the voting rights act passed cared more about racism than generations who grew up in a time where being racist was viewed as acceptable and spent a good part of their adult life when segregation was legal .