WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[JG]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/993443781281271808

Eh. We'll see. Not like Trump's endorsement really helped Strange. (Or Moore in the actual election for that matter)

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/993468698324361217

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/993443781281271808

Good for him. I hope this helps.

[Bumaye]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/993443781281271808

It's kinda funny. Not to long ago people said and wrote stuff like "Trump won't win in the GE, vote for Kasich or Cruz!" and Trump would have started a Twitter rant about Fake Polls and the lying mainstream media...

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/993443781281271808

Kind of late to do this, isn’t it? Hopefully these folks pull an Alabama and pick the worst possible to make it easier for Manchin to win because it’s unclear to me how strong Jenkins & Morrisey (especially Jenkins) really are and Trump will get embarrassed again.

[TheBeardedOne]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/993502987766173696?s=21


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386498-polls-show-blankenship-ahead-sparking-panic-among-gop?amp&__twitter_impression=true

[junior chįmp]

Rofl

https://www.twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/993511033695358977

[YE]

Can Blankenship run against CCM in 2022 please?

[emailking]

He wants them to split the vote?

[Senator Spiral]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/993505308034072576

he's got a point there

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/993505308034072576

he's got a point there

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rofl

https://www.twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/993511033695358977

LOL!

[Matty]

I do not trust those internal polls, especially this late.

I think they are meant to spur turnout

[Sadader]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/993505308034072576

he's got a point there

Well, minors people couldn’t vote in Alabama. Blankenship is literally a coal miner killer ^{(his nickname should be “Natural Gas” amirite)}. That’s like nominating a vegan anti-cheese activist in Wisconsin.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/993505308034072576

he's got a point there

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

[YE]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

Does it matter? She’ll get 10-15%ish but I don’t understand why you hate her so much. She’s a generic progressive.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

Yeah I agree. She'll get the progressive vote + some conservative DINOs who just want to vote against Joe Manchin. That should get her to at least 20%, maybe 30%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

I wouldn't be surprised. If high profile progressives endorsed her and campaigned for her, and she focused a lot on economic populism, she could've broken 40%, or made the primary somewhat competitive. obviously that didn't happen.

[Pollster]

I expect Swearengin to get around 25% of the vote, possibly low 30's. She will benefit from a coalition of West Virginia's small liberal base and legacy registered Dems who will protest vote against Manchin.

[henster]

I feel like Blankenship winning is too good to be true. I mean that would basically put a top target/vulnerable seat for R/Ds off the table. It would immensely change 2018 dynamic for the Senate. 

[warandwar]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

Does it matter? She’ll get 10-15%ish but I don’t understand why you hate her so much. She’s a generic progressive.

She's not that generic! She's a coal miner's daughter and has been protesting people like Blankenship for decades. She's wonderful.

[YE]

I have this strange feeling that I can't shake that while heavily losing, Paula Jean will do much better than expect, like low to mid 30s... I think Manchin might get O'Rourke'd in the primary, probably not that drastic, but I can't shake the feeling of a Swearingen overperformance.

Does it matter? She’ll get 10-15%ish but I don’t understand why you hate her so much. She’s a generic progressive.

She's not that generic! She's a coal miner's daughter and has been protesting people like Blankenship for decades. She's wonderful.

Generic progressives are wonderful on average

[NOVA Green]

Since I won't be able to see the results from the Primaries live tomorrow (Need to work a late Factory shift until 20:30 PST and 23:30 EST.... ) will have to likely see final results once I get off my swing shift....

Still, WV is a State still dear to my heart as a young Labor and Environmentalist activist in SW Ohio some 20-25 years back...

Thinking of throwing a brief playlist for y'alls that will have a chance to enjoy the show, starting with the obvious songs referencing West Virginia, from all of these albums and cassettes I have purchased over the years (Please purchase to support the original artists if you haven't already)....

1.) John Denver: "Take Me Home Country Roads"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTeUdJky9rY

2.) Loretta Lynn: "Coal Miners Daughter"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM84OekHtAQ

3.) Ok--- skipping the obvious ones that we all know, but here's a website that might post some others that most of us might have listened to or not (Listened to just about every single one of these songs multiple times over decades....

http://weheartwv.com/2016/08/16/15-songs-that-perfectly-get-west-virginia/

4.) Now there are a few other topical songs floating around...

Peggy Seeger: "Taft-Hartley"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sTJL05o3J0

Peggy Seeger: "Black Lung"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhdMRsPQryM

Regardless of whomever wins the Republican US-SEN Primary in WV, there is still a major outstanding issue at hand in the November US-SEN GE....

This is the issue of outstanding Collective Bargaining Agreements with former United Mine Workers of America Union Members (There aren't really any Union Mines left in WV last time I checked--- could be wrong), that comes to Miner Pensions and Widows of those that died as a direct consequence of exposure to "Black Lung", and "Industrial Accidents" over the years....

The American Coal Industry in the heart of Appalachia not only "Double-Breasted" non-union Mines literally in the "hollers" next door from Union Mines to gut the political and economic power of the UMWA from the '70s onwards, but additionally shifted operations west to the "open pit mines" and "cowboy miners" of Montana and Wyoming to undercut the power of the UMWA.

Although Coal Mining in West Virginia has been virtually eliminated as part of a systematic Operator program at a time where the Coal Industry became increasingly consolidated and dominated by MNCs (Nothing to do with Al Gore and Global Warming folks), we have an increasingly aging and retired Coal Miner families and communities that have been abandoned by both Democratic and Republican Presidential Administrations alike....

Honestly, not a big fan of Manchin, but at least he will protect and fight for the Social Compact between Labor and Capitol, so that retired Miners and their Widows, will at least get what is theirs, although the Trump Administration hasn't done squat to protect retired Coal Miners and their families in WV....

http://umwa.org/news-media/press/american-miners-protection-act/

We'll see how this all goes down tomorrow in the Republican Primary, but actually in some ways, I'm thinking in November '18 you might see the retired Coal Miners looking more like this, whomever the Republicans nominate...

[Don Vito Corleone]

As much as I would like to believe the rumors of Blakenship surging, I'm generally not a fan of insider "whispers", especially so close to election day.