WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Blankenship knows how to appeal to the crazies.

I disagree with this actually - he says the right things, but the man has about as much natural charisma as the Zuck.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

FWIW, I talked to my uncle today about this race. He's from WV originally, is a strong Trumpist, and instilled in our family a deep hatred of Blankenship and his practices. He's rooting for Blankenship now.

Why? He's become so disillusioned with the hypocrisy of the FBI/DoJ in regards to how they handled Trump/Clinton that he's become convinced that Blankenship's prosecution may have been political the whole time. And while I don't entirely agree, I can't help but think that a) that kind of thinking is more than justified even if I disagree in this individual case, b) I think many West Virginians agree.

These people aren't dumb hicks. The relative in question here spends his days driving a truck, and he listens to NPR, C-SPAN, and the SiriusXM channels literally all day. He has an encyclopedic knowledge of Russiagate's timeline that I envy, as I've long lost track of what all has transpired. He and his octogenarian mother who still lives up there talk about this stuff. This story isn't being ignored by Trump Country; quite the contrary, they're following it far more intensely than the opposition, and their rage is growing stronger.

It's part of the reason why I think that Trump will be reelected and that the midterms will largely be a draw. I'm actually beginning to think that Blankenship can actually win, in the sense that if he can win over my Uncle of all people, than he probably can win over enough swing voters to win in general.

Another thing to take into account is that Joe Manchin is unpopular, especially since he shamelessly used a thousand year flood for a bunch of photo-ops and a trip to the Greenbriar. His approvals are starting to drop off dramatically, and I think his attempt to portray himself as the real populist in the race is threatened by Blankenship in a way that Jenkins or Morrissey would envy.

Of course Blankenship is a criminal coal executive billionaire and a complete fraud, but whatever. If there is anything I've learned about politics from observing and participating, its the economy message stupid! Trump is living proof that a proper message can overcome even the most odious character flaws.

I don't think Blankenship is another Roy Moore though. Roy Moore's scandals came out after he won the primary. I think Blakenship, like Trump, has already aired out his dirty laundry.

TL;DR: A bunch of anecdotal regurgitations of what my relatives up there are thinking and what the informal consensus in (at least their immediate) bubble is like.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"

[Sadader]

Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"

Yep. This is a great example of how destructive it has been for Trump to undermine institutional norms in such a partisan environment.

And on a side note, being a normal or smart guy in everyday life does not justify your views in any way - I had a great uncle who went to Princeton but was apparently convinced in 30s that Aliens were trying to make everyone gay (he became more sane by the time I knew him). Blankenship is a moron who’ll get crushed almost as hard as Raese.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

FWIW, I talked to my uncle today about this race. He's from WV originally, is a strong Trumpist, and instilled in our family a deep hatred of Blankenship and his practices. He's rooting for Blankenship now.

Why? He's become so disillusioned with the hypocrisy of the FBI/DoJ in regards to how they handled Trump/Clinton that he's become convinced that Blankenship's prosecution may have been political the whole time. And while I don't entirely agree, I can't help but think that a) that kind of thinking is more than justified even if I disagree in this individual case, b) I think many West Virginians agree.

These people aren't dumb hicks. The relative in question here spends his days driving a truck, and he listens to NPR, C-SPAN, and the SiriusXM channels literally all day. He has an encyclopedic knowledge of Russiagate's timeline that I envy, as I've long lost track of what all has transpired. He and his octogenarian mother who still lives up there talk about this stuff. This story isn't being ignored by Trump Country; quite the contrary, they're following it far more intensely than the opposition, and their rage is growing stronger.

It's part of the reason why I think that Trump will be reelected and that the midterms will largely be a draw. I'm actually beginning to think that Blankenship can actually win, in the sense that if he can win over my Uncle of all people, than he probably can win over enough swing voters to win in general.

Another thing to take into account is that Joe Manchin is unpopular, especially since he shamelessly used a thousand year flood for a bunch of photo-ops and a trip to the Greenbriar. His approvals are starting to drop off dramatically, and I think his attempt to portray himself as the real populist in the race is threatened by Blankenship in a way that Jenkins or Morrissey would envy.

Of course Blankenship is a criminal coal executive billionaire and a complete fraud, but whatever. If there is anything I've learned about politics from observing and participating, its the economy message stupid! Trump is living proof that a proper message can overcome even the most odious character flaws.

I don't think Blankenship is another Roy Moore though. Roy Moore's scandals came out after he won the primary. I think Blakenship, like Trump, has already aired out his dirty laundry.

TL;DR: A bunch of anecdotal regurgitations of what my relatives up there are thinking and what the informal consensus in (at least their immediate) bubble is like.

Delusion is a hell of a drug. I can't imagine how detached from reality you have to be to support Blankenship. Then again, WV gop primary voters are the same creatures that nominated lunatic John Reese 3 times who collapsed each and every time he ran. I don't think they actually use their brain when voting in primaries.

Blankenship has a nonzero chance of winning... but it ain't much higher than 0%. Meanwhile Jenkins and even Morrissey are favored over Manchin IMO.

[Bidenworth2020]

what is with the manchin is unpopular myth?

[Skunk]

muh anecdotal evidence

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Clearly Blankenship is more electable than Jenkins because something something establishment evil swamp something.

It's crazy just how deluded people can get when they think basically everyone is their enemy, and that the only people they can support are the people who are the fringiest of lunatics.

what is with the manchin is unpopular myth?

I'd say he is unpopular among GOP primary voters, but even among them, according to the Fox poll, he has a 35% approval among republicans LOL

[Alabama_Indy10]

You can pull it out BIG DON!

[KingSweden]

Re: Russiagate, as I’ve long said, GOP voters and Trump have nobody to blame but themselves. Everybody knew he had skeletons in his closet, and he didn’t have to wait to can Comey for four months then admit it was over Russia to Lester Holt

As for WV... still think Morrissey takes it narrowly. That said I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the three won.

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah, I had heard that Blankenship was dominating the NPR demographic, Sanchez's uncle just confirms it.

[warandwar]

what is with the manchin is unpopular myth?

It's not a myth. WVans have longer memories than the rest of America and he and his family have been scum for a while.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

what is with the manchin is unpopular myth?

It's not a myth. WVans have longer memories than the rest of America and he and his family have been scum for a while.

WV is the same place that consistently reelected Robert Byrd, elected Jim Justice, elected Joe Manchin despite hating Obama, and elected Donald Trump.

I don't think they care too much about ethics...

I'm sorry, but WV voters aren't secretly socialist. Lol

(Also, his approval is usually around 50% in every poll I've seen)

[DINGO Joe]

You can pull it out BIG DON!

Are we still talking about the election?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blankensh!t won't win, sorry.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah no you're uncle is a moron if he thinks Blakenship is innocent based on the evidence of "Russiagate is fake news/buttery males"

Yep. This is a great example of how destructive it has been for Trump to undermine institutional norms in such a partisan environment.

And on a side note, being a normal or smart guy in everyday life does not justify your views in any way - I had a great uncle who went to Princeton but was apparently convinced in 30s that Aliens were trying to make everyone gay (he became more sane by the time I knew him). Blankenship is a moron who’ll get crushed almost as hard as Raese.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiqSjpmjVHg

[Devout Centrist]

Really hoping that candidate Bushie pulls it out and faces Manchin this November!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Really hoping that candidate Bushie pulls it out and faces Manchin this November!

Who?

[Skill and Chance]

Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

Blankenship, Jenkins, and Morrissey will pretty much all vote the same way.

If Blankenship wins, Jenkins and Morrissey would have won by more.

[ON Progressive]

Be careful what you wish for.  I'm not at all convinced Roy Moore would have lost if it was the standard Nov. 2018 election date and there were 5 or 10 other contested races on the ballot to drive GOP turnout.  And Trump did even better in WV than in AL.   Blankenship is an awful candidate, no doubt, but is he as bad as Roy Moore?

If Manchin loses to Blankenship, of all people, he was going to lose to Morrisey or Jenkins anyway.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/don-blankenship-wont-rule-out-third-party-bid-west-virginia-senate-race-2018-05-06/

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Please proceed, Mr. Blankenship.

[junior chįmp]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/don-blankenship-wont-rule-out-third-party-bid-west-virginia-senate-race-2018-05-06/

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Please proceed, Mr. Blankenship.

They can't sink our BlankenSHIP