WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Nathan Towne]

A new poll was released on this race just the other day which was conducted by the Trafalgar Group. It can be found in full here:

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

The Trafalgar Group generally has a strong reputation as a polling organization, so these results are worth taking a look at.

Thus far, five polls have been assembled at RealClearPolitics on this race. They are as follows:

                                                                    Manchin Morrisey   Spread
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/13 - 7/16  1158 LV 2.9        50         40     Manchin +10
Monmouth 6/14 - 6/19                 527 LV 5.3          50         43     Manchin +7
Gravis 5/22 - 5/22                       543 LV 4.2          53         40     Manchin +13
WPAi (R) 5/10 - 5/10                   400 LV 4.9          44         46     Morrisey +2
MetroNews 8/11 - 8/20                400 LV 4.9          51         37     Manchin +14

These are the only polls for this race which I have come across thus far.

[Oryxslayer]

A new poll was released on this race just the other day which was conducted by the Trafalgar Group. It can be found in full here:

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

The Trafalgar Group generally has a strong reputation as a polling organization, so these results are worth taking a look at.

Thus far, five polls have been assembled at RealClearPolitics on this race. They are as follows:

                                                                    Manchin Morrisey   Spread
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/13 - 7/16  1158 LV 2.9        50         40     Manchin +10
Monmouth 6/14 - 6/19                 527 LV 5.3          50         43     Manchin +7
Gravis 5/22 - 5/22                       543 LV 4.2          53         40     Manchin +13
WPAi (R) 5/10 - 5/10                   400 LV 4.9          44         46     Morrisey +2
MetroNews 8/11 - 8/20                400 LV 4.9          51         37     Manchin +14

These are the only polls for this race which I have come across thus far.

If those are your only five, then you didn't bother to do any searching:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018#Polling_3

[Gass3268]

McConnell is pulling money out of WV:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1019968746130198528

[Greatblueheron]

McConnell is pulling money out of WV:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1019968746130198528

The Republicans have probably decided to put more resources into defeating Heitkamp, Mccaskill, Donnelly, and Nelson, along with holding their seats in Arizona and Nevada.

[Nathan Towne]

A new poll was released on this race just the other day which was conducted by the Trafalgar Group. It can be found in full here:

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

The Trafalgar Group generally has a strong reputation as a polling organization, so these results are worth taking a look at.

Thus far, five polls have been assembled at RealClearPolitics on this race. They are as follows:

                                                                    Manchin Morrisey   Spread
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/13 - 7/16  1158 LV 2.9        50         40     Manchin +10
Monmouth 6/14 - 6/19                 527 LV 5.3          50         43     Manchin +7
Gravis 5/22 - 5/22                       543 LV 4.2          53         40     Manchin +13
WPAi (R) 5/10 - 5/10                   400 LV 4.9          44         46     Morrisey +2
MetroNews 8/11 - 8/20                400 LV 4.9          51         37     Manchin +14

These are the only polls for this race which I have come across thus far.

If those are your only five, then you didn't bother to do any searching:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018#Polling_3

I had not looked especially hard, but those were the only polls which I had seen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

McConnell is pulling money out of WV:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1019968746130198528

HURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

Friggin titan of a man Joe bleepin Manchin oh heck yeah!!

[wesmoorenerd]

At this point, MT and WV are solidly Dem-favored seats. The GOP is going to be hammering Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Nelson, especially the first two, with all of their strength.

On a different note, this is why I think the Dems' chances of taking the Senate are underrated this year. People parade the eye popping "ten Democrats in Trump states" statistic, but it's incredibly misleading. Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are almost completely safe at this point, often with double digit leads and better fundraising than their weak challengers. That's four of ten "vulnerable" seats. Manchin and Tester are strong favorites at this point against overrated busts of challengers, and at this rate I don't see them losing. That's another two of ten. McCaskill is up against lazy boi Hawley and has consistent, if hardly comfortable, leads in the polls. That's another slight Dem favorite. Rick Scott is blowing through money against Nelson, who's done little campaigning, and he's either trailing or has an inconsistent, tiny lead. Assuming Nelson, a battle tested incumbent, starts pumping up his campaign, he'll become a strong favorite. That's another Dem favorite.

All in all, Donnelly and Heitkamp are the only Dem incumbents I think would have much of a chance of losing if the election was held today. Even there, they'd probably only lose one, not both. Considering the three excellent Dem pickup opportunities in NV, AZ, and TN, I'm pretty confident the Dems have a much better chance to win the Senate than the 30% bulls*** you see on PredictIt.

[Nathan Towne]

At this point, MT and WV are solidly Dem-favored seats. The GOP is going to be hammering Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Nelson, especially the first two, with all of their strength.

On a different note, this is why I think the Dems' chances of taking the Senate are underrated this year. People parade the eye popping "ten Democrats in Trump states" statistic, but it's incredibly misleading. Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are almost completely safe at this point, often with double digit leads and better fundraising than their weak challengers. That's four of ten "vulnerable" seats. Manchin and Tester are strong favorites at this point against overrated busts of challengers, and at this rate I don't see them losing. That's another two of ten. McCaskill is up against lazy boi Hawley and has consistent, if hardly comfortable, leads in the polls. That's another slight Dem favorite. Rick Scott is blowing through money against Nelson, who's done little campaigning, and he's either trailing or has an inconsistent, tiny lead. Assuming Nelson, a battle tested incumbent, starts pumping up his campaign, he'll become a strong favorite. That's another Dem favorite.

All in all, Donnelly and Heitkamp are the only Dem incumbents I think would have much of a chance of losing if the election was held today. Even there, they'd probably only lose one, not both. Considering the three excellent Dem pickup opportunities in NV, AZ, and TN, I'm pretty confident the Dems have a much better chance to win the Senate than the 30% bulls*** you see on PredictIt.

I agree that both West Virginia and Montana must be characterized at this point as races that lean towards the incumbent to one degree or another. The race in Missouri is a bit less clear, but I would give Hawley a slight edge due to the nature of the State and the fact that I think that he will probably demonstrate himself to be a strong candidate in the upcoming race. McCaskill is by no means dead though and that race could end up being a very competitive one.

I classify both Heitkamp and Donnolly as being underdogs in their re-election bids. North Dakota and Indiana are States whose complexion is quite challenging for a Democrat at this point and unlike West Virginia which is an old-line "pro-labor" State that has drifted into the Republican column in National elections due to the stances of the Democratic Party on environmental issues, environmentalist business regulations, cap and trade, firearms and taxation, the nature of States like North Dakota and Indiana is somewhat different. Both States have gone to the Republican Presidential candidate in all but one Presidential election since 1968 (Indiana 2008) and their constituencies are quite different than the electorate of West Virginia. Donnelly defeated Mourdock, who inflicted tremendous damage to himself during the campaign, in the 2012 Senate race and if Braun runs a good campaign, he will have an edge. With North Dakota, as I have written elsewhere, I am not sure why Democrats are looking on that race with much optimism, to be honest.

There is no doubt that Dean Heller is facing a massive uphill fight in Nevada. Ron Johnson was facing one too in 2016 and pulled it out, but Trump also broke the wall in 2016 and won Wisconsin outright. Not so in Nevada. I would probably give Heller a better chance of winning that Mark Kirk had of winning re-election in Illinois in 2016, but not by that much. It is too bad because Heller is one of the nations better Senators, but such is the reality. His race is similar to Gardner's race coming up in two years. Good Senator, but a difficult race in order to attain re-election.

Sinema has the edge in Arizona right now. It will be interesting to see how that race plays out once a Republican candidate has been fielded.

The race in Tennessee is still a bit early for me. Bredesen is polling better than Blackburn is at the moment, but I don't have a good enough feel on it to tell you how substantive that polling lead will turn out to be. I have classified the race as a "lean Republican" race, but if the situation is not looking much better for her in a month or two, I will be forced to reexamine it.

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, I think Manchin wins by 7-8%.

[BlueDogs2020]

The Trafalgar poll is really good news; it caused RCP to shift West Virginia into ¨Lean D¨, which I would agree with. Manchin will most likely vote for Kavanaugh, which will basically make him safeif the polling is accurate; I strongly doubt he will win by that much, but I wouldn´t be surprised if Morrisey barely breaks 40%

[Greedo punched first]

Huntington attorney Marc Williams believes the sore loser law will prevent Blankenship from making the ballot. If Blankenship fails to qualify, does he run a write-in campaign?

[LimoLiberal]

Manchin looks more likely to win reelection every day, though I still count him as a slight underdog. Morrissey seems like one of, if not the weakest Republican recruits.

[Thunder98]

Manchin wins by 10%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Huntington attorney Marc Williams believes the sore loser law will prevent Blankenship from making the ballot. If Blankenship fails to qualify, does he run a write-in campaign?

It's a near certainty imo

[Hindsight was 2020]

The King lives! https://mobile.twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1021485316300054528

[Thunder98]

Safe D now

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/398432-blankenship-to-file-for-third-party-senate-candidacy-in-wva

[here2view]

Manchin was already going to win even without this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought the law forbade a third party run by him.

[Ebsy]

I thought the law forbade a third party run by him.

It does. I guess he is going to challenge it as unconstitutional?

[MAINEiac4434]

Is Blankenship a D plant or just absolutely insane?

[ON Progressive]

BIG DON

[Doimper]

Is Blankenship a D plant or just absolutely insane?

Why not both?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can we change the thread name? Swearingen got destroyed! And don't give me that Mother Jones crap.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Blankenship a D plant or just absolutely insane?

Why not both?

Nah, it's all about his devotion to the children.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Is Blankenship a D plant or just absolutely insane?

It's all for the children.