MI Governor 2018

[Doimper]

Duggan is not-so-secretly trying to recruit a more viable challenger

There's some interesting info there, particularly:

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And:

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Yes, please get Peters out of the Senate.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Peters passed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Peters passed.

Good

[Jeppe]

Whitmer was easily leading Duggan in the polls, so I can see why he's trying to get somebody ELSE to run against her.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Whitmer was easily leading Duggan in the polls, so I can see why he's trying to get somebody ELSE to run against her.

Far as I know, there's not been a poll pitting the two against one another directly. In mid-November, shortly after Duggan was re-elected as mayor, there was a poll showing him up 15 over Schutte in a hypothetical matchup, while Whitmer was tied.

But yes, he probably would jump in himself if his internals were indicative of a good result. Shame, too.

[Jeppe]

Whitmer was easily leading Duggan in the polls, so I can see why he's trying to get somebody ELSE to run against her.

Far as I know, there's not been a poll pitting the two against one another directly. In mid-November, shortly after Duggan was re-elected as mayor, there was a poll showing him up 15 over Schutte in a hypothetical matchup, while Whitmer was tied.

But yes, he probably would jump in himself if his internals were indicative of a good result. Shame, too.

From the article

“Several polls show Whitmer has a double-digit lead over others in the Democratic primary, and November poll from Target-Insyght showed she had a sizable advantage over hypothetical candidates including Duggan and Southfield attorney Geoffrey Fieger.“

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

^ thanks! That's embarrassing that I missed that in the article that I posted. 

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Duggan endorses Whitmer.

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m on board with Whitmer. I think she’ll be a repeat of Ralph Northam where everybody panicked and he ended up winning by a bigger margin than the polls showed.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I’m on board with Whitmer. I think she’ll be a repeat of Ralph Northam where everybody panicked and he ended up winning by a bigger margin than the polls showed.

I don't really have much of an issue with Whitmer, tbh. She's more centrist than I'd like, plus it'd be great to finally have some Muslim representation in higher government, which is why I support El-Sayed.

But iirc, Whitmer was the left's favorite in the shadow primary when Levin retired, so she's not exactly Northam V2.

Duggan's endorsement isn't changing my mind, but I'm much more comfortable with Whitmer now. At least it's not perennial joke candidate Fieger.

[Horus]

Why isn't Feiger getting traction? He might be the best candidate of the cycle, certainly my favorite.

[Mycool]

Why isn't Feiger getting traction? He might be the best candidate of the cycle, certainly my favorite.

He’s literally polling the worst in the general election. He’s seriously divisive and a weak candidate.

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m on board with Whitmer. I think she’ll be a repeat of Ralph Northam where everybody panicked and he ended up winning by a bigger margin than the polls showed.

I don't really have much of an issue with Whitmer, tbh. She's more centrist than I'd like, plus it'd be great to finally have some Muslim representation in higher government, which is why I support El-Sayed.

But iirc, Whitmer was the left's favorite in the shadow primary when Levin retired, so she's not exactly Northam V2.

Duggan's endorsement isn't changing my mind, but I'm much more comfortable with Whitmer now. At least it's not perennial joke candidate Fieger.

If El Sayed gets the nomination, Scheutte will win by the same margin Snyder did in 2010. This state just voted for Trump, and if we nominate a Muslim, every one of those rural deplorables who turned out for Trump will turn out to oppose a Muslim governor. I can see the ads already...

Bill Scheutte is the only thing stopping an ISIS takeover of Michigan!

[libertpaulian]

Does El-Sayed even have any traction outside Dearborn?

[Bojack Horseman]

Does El-Sayed even have any traction outside Dearborn?

I'd say it's mostly word-of-mouth among the Bernie people. Shri Thanedar is the only candidate from either party who's running ads right now, and he'd do just as poorly as El-Sayed would. He's campaigning on shutting down every charter school in Michigan. The guy is a total whackjob. I'm not sure why even the Republicans haven't started advertising, as they've got the same clown car primary (Scheutte, Calley, Colbeck, etc.) as the Democrats do.

[QAnonKelly]

Is El-Sayed even going to be on the ballot bc of the registration issue? He's young, maybe he should try for a smaller seat then try again when they work out the registration issues

[sverkol]

Is El-Sayed even going to be on the ballot bc of the registration issue? He's young, maybe he should try for a smaller seat then try again when they work out the registration issues

Exactly,i like him and he has a lot charisma but he should run for congress or state senate first and than run for governor in 2026 or senate in 2024 of Debbie retires.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What's so infuriating about this race is that Abdul El-Sayed is so almost-to-the-point-of-absurdity amazing, yet Shri Thanedar is also apparently Extremely Good as evidenced by his call for a blanket ban on charter schools. Neither will win, though, so it's irrelevant in practice.

A blanket ban would be a big mistake and I say that as someone who is generally not a fan of charter schools (it also suggests that Thanedar is far more interested in tossing red meat to the base than actually governing which is never a good sign).  There are a lot of bad charter schools and the industry needs to be much more heavily regulated, but there some which really do help folks who wouldn’t get the individualized attention they need in the public school system and we shouldn’t punish them for the sins of the bad charter schools.  For example, there is one in Franklin County, OH that has been doing really great work with special needs kids and managed to take some kids who couldn’t even function in public and get them to the point where they can go to decent colleges.

As for El-Sayed, I gotta say I’m not exactly impressed given that he apparently failed to make sure he met the residency requirements before getting in the race.  Imagine if he was nominated and then found ineligible after overseas ballots had already gone out?  It’d be a disaster and he should drop out just to avoid that risk, tbh. 

Whitmer has been a solid fundraiser, has a base outside of Detroit, seems to be running a solid campaign, and is the only Democrat running who can beat Schuette.  Not only would Schuette be a right-wing Governor (and quite possibly even more anti-union than Snyder), but this will be a really important race for the next round of redistricting.  Winning the governorship is our best chance to force a fair map in a Democratic-leaning state whose current congressional map is among the worst Republican gerrymanders in the country (along with OH, the old PA map, NC, although WI and TX are also pretty bad).  Given that if El-Sayed or Thaneder got nominated, we’d be looking at a 2010-sized win for Schuette, I’d think progressives would be rallying around Whitmer. 

[Bojack Horseman]

Is El-Sayed even going to be on the ballot bc of the registration issue? He's young, maybe he should try for a smaller seat then try again when they work out the registration issues

Nobody's going to challenge him. That would cause an intra-party civil war, because he's already likened the valid challenge to the birther movement. If he won the nomination, Republicans would pounce and have him stricken from the ballot and god knows what would happen after that.

The MDP needs to do something to muzzle Thanedar. He said in an interview in the beginning that he's only running as a perennial candidate to be a pain in the ass to the hated establishment.

[QAnonKelly]

Is El-Sayed even going to be on the ballot bc of the registration issue? He's young, maybe he should try for a smaller seat then try again when they work out the registration issues

Nobody's going to challenge him. That would cause an intra-party civil war, because he's already likened the valid challenge to the birther movement. If he won the nomination, Republicans would pounce and have him stricken from the ballot and god knows what would happen after that.

The MDP needs to do something to muzzle Thanedar. He said in an interview in the beginning that he's only running as a perennial candidate to be a pain in the ass to the hated establishment.

That’s my fear , he somehow gets stricken from the ballot because of the registration issues if he were to win the primary. There’s no reason to run that risk. Especially in a state that’s both very winnable and very important in the redistricting fight. He should probably just take one for the team and drop out while they figure out the legal stuff and try again next time there’s an open seat. He’s definitely got potential, the timing just isn’t right

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It sounds to me like Whitmer has the nomination locked up anyway so fighting that eligibility issue ain't worth it.

Whitmer will definitely be the best looking Governor unless that Indian woman in Connecticut also manages. The CT lady sounds like and sucks politically though so I hope not.

[un]

This truthfully should be an easy win for the Democratic Party. The state is D+1, their Republican governor is wildly unpopular, and Trump is below 40% in approval there. It should be easy, if they nominate a populist. Not some centrist corporatist like Hillary Clinton. If they nominate the corporatist, they would be giving the Republicans an chance for victory. If it's a progressive liberal with no ties to corporate America, then they would win easily. The whole theory that if you run to the right as a Democrat in a red state isn't true. Bernie is very popular in Michigan, Ohio, and other states in the rust belt. So just run the right candidate, and they will win easily.         

[Babeuf]

Wasn't sure where else to put this and I wasn't sure a state AG race merited a new topic, but Dana Nessel has beaten Pat Miles for the AG nomination at the Michigan Dem convention. Seems like a bit of an upset, since Miles was backed by the UAW and the party establishment.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/michigan_democratic_party_endo.html

[libertpaulian]

This truthfully should be an easy win for the Democratic Party. The state is D+1, their Republican governor is wildly unpopular, and Trump is below 40% in approval there. It should be easy, if they nominate a populist. Not some centrist corporatist like Hillary Clinton. If they nominate the corporatist, they would be giving the Republicans an chance for victory. If it's a progressive liberal with no ties to corporate America, then they would win easily. The whole theory that if you run to the right as a Democrat in a red state isn't true. Bernie is very popular in Michigan, Ohio, and other states in the rust belt. So just run the right candidate, and they will win easily.         

Michigan isn't a red state.  Trump won there by under 10,000 votes and was perceived as an anti-Reagan Republican.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is going to be a repeat of NJ-Gov 2017, only with an even more lopsided margin of victory.