What is primaries "ran" on the Electoral College? If they were by popular vote?
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  What is primaries "ran" on the Electoral College? If they were by popular vote?
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Author Topic: What is primaries "ran" on the Electoral College? If they were by popular vote?  (Read 731 times)
West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 02, 2017, 11:33:42 AM »

What if party presidential primary elections were based on a 538 elector system, 270 to win, same state distribution in the presidential primaries as in the General Election.

The party will have to legislate what will be the course of action in the event that no candidate reaches 270 electors. (Any 1 of these 4 options)
1. Plurality of electors wins
2. Plurality of vote wins
3. Majority of vote wins (with or without RCV: ie. requiring nominee to "have" a majority)
4. Revote at the convention until someone has 270

What effects would there be in presidents/presidential candidates in the present, past and future?

What if presidential primaries (and/or the General Election) were based on popular vote (plurality) or if a majority was required (ranked choice voting instead of FPTP in the event that no one has 50+% AND no EC)?
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2017, 12:14:58 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2017, 01:06:43 PM by West_Midlander »

An example.

Democratic Presidential Primaries, 1972
270 electors to win

Candidate:Senator George McGovernFormer DNC Chair Henry JacksonGovernor George WallaceRepresentative Shirley ChisholmFormer VP Hubert HumphreyRepresentative Wilbur MillsSenator Ed Muskie
Home State:South DakotaWashingtonAlabamaNew YorkMinnesotaArkansasMaine
Delegate soft count:23752801798648
Contests won:24762615
Popular vote:4,053,451505,1983,755,424430,7034,121,37237,4011,840,217
Percentage:25.3%3.2%23.5%2.7%25.8%0.2%11.5%

Red = McGovern, Yellow = Jackson, Green = Wallace, Light Blue = Chisholm, Blue = Humphrey,
 Pink = Mills, Grey = Muskie

Democratic National Convention, 1972
Candidate:1st Vote2nd Vote3rd Vote4th Vote
McGovern:237238239239
Jackson:525252
Wallace:808484
Chisholm:1717
Humphrey:989898
Mills:6
Muskie:484864214
Abstentions:01185

The first vote: Electors vote as expected.
After the first vote: Mills withdraws his name from the Presidential ballot but offers no endorsement.
The second vote: No change except: one of Mills electors votes for McGovern, 1 abstains and four back Wallace.
After the second vote & the third vote: Chisholm drops out and throws her support behind Muskie, 16 of her 17 delegates follow suit with one choosing McGovern.
After the third vote: Jackson endorses Muskie for President. Jackson's electors are either solidly in the Muskie camp or leaning towards it. Word reaches the Humphrey camp preceding the fourth vote. Humphrey phones Jackson and confirms this; He endorses Muskie.
The fourth vote and the nominees: Wallace launches an independent campaign and encourages his electors to abstain. McGovern privately offers Muskie the Vice-Presidency. Muskie accepts. The electors of the DNC pass a motion, 453-84 (with one abstention), to choose the presidential candidate on a plurality of delegates. The Democratic ticket is McGovern-Muskie.
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Peebs
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2017, 12:19:36 PM »

Here are historical results. Since 2000, only one result flips (2008 D).
2000 D: 538-0 Gore
2000 R: 481-57 Bush
2004 D: 505-23-7-3 Kerry
2004 R: 538-0 Bush
2008 D: 311-227 Clinton
2008 R: 401-74-63 McCain
2012 D: 538-0 Obama
2012 R: 428-85-25 Romney
2016 D: 399-139 Clinton
2016 R: 411-96-18-13 Trump
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2017, 12:25:24 PM »

Here are historical results. Since 2000, only one result flips (2008 D).

On that note, how do you think McCain v Clinton works out?
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Jaguar4life
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2017, 01:07:59 PM »

There will like OTL 2016 be people like oh Clinton and McCain are the same.

And they will point out their similar track record
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2017, 01:36:12 PM »

Clinton would underperform compared to Obama, but she'd still probably win in 2008.
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Skunk
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2017, 03:45:39 PM »

Clinton '08 loses North Carolina and Indiana but wins Missouri. Does notably better in West Virginia and Arkansas too, probably.
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