2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[the506]

Looks like we could see a call as early as this weekend. Election day would be May 30. Liberals put up an ad (probably accidentally on purpose) on their site yesterday.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/liberal-election-website-vote-may-30-1.4090178?cmp=rss

Not expecting a real eventful campaign, there aren't any major issues that stand out, the budget is balanced and Stephen McNeil's Liberals are still up big in the latest poll:
https://cra.ca/support-for-ns-liberals-declines-sharply-this-quarter/

But put it this way...I live right next door to NS, can't stand how the rest of the country goes out of their way to ignore the east coast...and I'm going to have a hard time forcing myself to care about this one. But here we go.

[DC Al Fine]

I'll do a more detailed analysis riding by riding later in the campaign but 506 is right. The Liberals will probably be reelected. Of course I predicted an NDP minority last time and look how that turned out.

There have been two issues that have upset the urban left: cutting the film tax credit and a labour dispute with the teachers' union. Neither have failed to make a big dent in McNeil's support, but the NDP will likely make gains in Halifax, where they were nearly wiped out last time based on those issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh, there is one more  poll out which shows a somewhat tighter race

Liberal: 43%
Tory: 27%
NDP: 24%

So we are starting with the 2013 end result more or less.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories had their campaign launch yesterday. Still no election call.

[the506]

Call coming today.

http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nova-scotia-premier-stephen-mcneil-poised-to-call-provincial-election-1.3391422

[DC Al Fine]

On the first full day of campaigning, the Tories and Liberals offer competing infrastructure plans and the NDP promises to run deficits to expand healthcare.

[DC Al Fine]

Disgraced former Liberal MLA Andrew Younger has ended his independent campaign. Disappointing, it would have made for an interesting race.

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

[KingSweden]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

Halifax is kind of a quirky area politically, right?

[136or142]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

Keep in mind though Premier McNeil is from the Annapolis Valley Region (6 ridings, with the Liberals holding five) and many people in the Nova Scotia regions seem to like voting for a party with a leader from their region.  I would  remind you that in the normally Liberal Cape Breton when Rodney MacDonald was P.C Leader in 2006 and went on to win a minority government, the P.Cs gained two seats in the Cape Breton region (of the then 9 ridings. That only gave the P.Cs four ridings on Cape Breton, but historically, Cape Breton had been a wasteland for them, in 1999, for instance, Rodney MacDonald was the only P.C elected on Cape Breton.)

Presently the Liberals hold 5 of 8 Cape Breton ridings, and if they hold the 5 seats in Annapolis, they should be well on their way to getting reelected with a majority government.

[136or142]

I find this interesting, but not sure what to make of it. Outside of NDP leader Gary Burrill himself (who doesn't really have a choice but to run) not a single NDP MLA defeated in 2013 is running in this election.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

Halifax is kind of a quirky area politically, right?

A little bit, but this is still really unusual. The city's politics have been 'liberal v socialist' for quite some time.

Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

Keep in mind though Premier McNeil is from the Annapolis Valley Region (6 ridings, with the Liberals holding five) and many people in the Nova Scotia regions seem to like voting for a party with a leader from their region.  I would  remind you that in the normally Liberal Cape Breton when Rodney MacDonald was P.C Leader in 2006 and went on to win a minority government, the P.Cs gained two seats in the Cape Breton region (of the then 9 ridings. That only gave the P.Cs four ridings on Cape Breton, but historically, Cape Breton had been a wasteland for them, in 1999, for instance, Rodney MacDonald was the only P.C elected on Cape Breton.)

Presently the Liberals hold 5 of 8 Cape Breton ridings, and if they hold the 5 seats in Annapolis, they should be well on their way to getting reelected with a majority government.

Definitely true, but the composition of said majority will be unexpected. That poll represents  a ~10-12 % swing from Liberal to Tory in Halifax, with the NDP holding static. With the overall polls holding steady, it looks like the Liberals will lose their near sweep in Halifax while gaining seats in the country. Of course that is assuming the polls are true.

[DC Al Fine]

Now that I have time, here is my brief guide to Nova Scotia politics and this election in particular:

Introduction
Nova Scotia, like the rest of Atlantic Canada is a poor, relatively rural place. However, this isn't quite as extreme as the rest of the east coast due to Halifax (a prosperous, and fairly bobo city similar to Victoria) and industrial Cape Breton (a depressed industrial area similar to Windsor). Racially the province is overwhelmingly white and Anglophone, with small minorities of Acadians (east coast Francophones with a distinct dialect from Quebecois), blacks  First Nations and Lebanese Arabs (about 1-3% each). The province is somewhat more religious than the rest of the country, as one would expect from an older, rural region. Of particular note are the high number of Baptists in the rural mainland of the province, who help shore up Tory strength in the area.

Nova Scotia politics are defined by their overwhelming centrism. People joke that the Tories are centre-centre-right, the NDP are centre-centre-left and the Liberals are centre-centre-centre. Ridings are small and the province is relatively rural, so tribalism and personal votes play a much bigger role than they do elsewhere. Political dynasties are common. Two husband/wife duos represent similar areas federaly and provincially (The Regans represent Halifax West and Bedford, while the Eykings represent Sydney-Victoria and Victoria-The Lakes), and two sons of former Premiers currently hold office.

The Liberals are often considered the most conservative party in the province. The Tories are extremely red, and their governments are often big spenders to support rural roads, healthcare and education, while the Liberals tend to represent upper income urban areas and have more austere politics to match. The NDP are more centrist than NDP's in the rest of Canada, although they have tacked left this election.

Here is a map of Nova Scotia's electoral districts for reference. H/T Earl.


The Liberal base is found in the Annapolis Valley (three three Kings ridings, Annapolis, and Clare-Digby), upper income suburbs of Halifax, and rural Cape Breton. The Tories find their strength in the rural mainland of Nova Scotia, particularly the North Shore (Pictou, Cumberland and Colchester counties). The NDP does best in the urban parts of Halifax, poor suburbs of Halifax and urban Cape Breton.

Leaders/Parties
Stephen McNeil, a blue liberal representing Annapolis, is seeking a second term in office. His government defeated an historic one term NDP government which had swept out a three term Tory government while the Liberals were in disarray. McNeil's government has been quite right wing by Nova Scotia standards (but still centrist for the rest of Canada), and has included budget cuts, small tax hikes, and  labour strife.

The Tories are led by Jamie Baillie. Baillie is a Chartered Accountant and former CEO of a credit union who was acclaimed to the leadership after the last Tory government went down in a landslide. Baillie ran slightly to the left of the Liberals in 2013, and is doubling down on this effort in 2017, slamming the government for 'reckless cuts'. A friend of mine from Ontario joked that he thought he went to an NDP rally by accident after hearing a Baillie speech. Baillie is from Halifax but represents a safe rural seat, Cumberland South.

The NDP are led by Gary Burrill, a former United Church minister and defeated backbencher MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley. Burrill won a shocking victory over more centrist candidates in the NDP leadership convention last year. This was considered a rebuke of the previous NDP leader, Darrell Dexter, which was accused by many progressives of ceding too much ground to the right and centre. Burrill has tacked the party to the left and is promising to raise the minimum wage to $15 in three years. Although Burrill has elected experience, his old seat would be a very up hill fight, so he is running in Halifax Chebucto, a fairly left wing seat represented by a one term Liberal MLA.

There are also two fringe parties running:

The Greens are a true fringe party in Nova Scotia, running only 16 candidates in 2013 and garnering less than 1% of the vote. The Greens are somewhat better organized this time, but are not expected to run a full slate. The other fringe party is the Atlantica Party, a libertarian party advocating Maritime union (merging Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island together into one province). The Atlantica Party will probably run around half a dozen candidates this election

Issues
Film tax credit: Halifax has a fairly big film and television production industry, which was subsidized by a significant tax credit. McNeil cut the tax credit back significantly, which resulted in a lot of blowback from progressives in Halifax. Both the Tories and the NDP are promising to restore the credit. McNeil nearly swept Halifax last election, and this move is likely to cost him some of his more progressive seats in the city.

Teachers unions: Nova Scotia experienced significant labour strife in 2016 due to negotiations with the teachers union. This was in part due to the union's leadership not understanding their members' opinions. The union membership voted down three (!) agreements that the leadership ratified before the McNeil government imposed a contract on the union, via Bill 75. The Tories and NDP are both promising to repeal Bill 75 and negotiate a new contract with the teachers union. The NDP have been campaigning especially hard on this issue.

Roads: Much of rural Nova Scotia has two lane, undivided highways, which can be quite dangerous in the winter. The Tories and Liberals are offering dueling plans to put in divided highways in more rural regions. This is a popular measure, but is criticized in some circles due to the government facing difficulties maintaining its existing infrastructure.

Taxes/spending The Liberals have presented balanced budgets the past couple of years, largely due to austerity. The taps have turned back on somewhat, with the Liberals raising the personal exemption (amount one can earn before paying income tax) by a few thousand. The NDP is running deficits in order to finance more healthcare spending, particularly nursing home beds, which aging provinces like Nova Scotia are struggling to provide. Burrill like to claim that McNeil has 'traded a budget deficit for a healthcare deficit'. The Tories are also calling for more spending but still say they will balance the budget.

Conclusion
The election is set to be status quo thus far. The polls within a couple of points of the 2013 result. I expect there to be some regional change. The film tax credit has upset many progressives in Halifax, and I expect both the NDP and Tories to make gains there. With no former rural NDP MLA's running, their personal votes will disappear. and will be picked up by the Liberals and Tories. I expect this election will look more like 'typical' Nova Scotia results than 2009 and 2013, with NDP weakness in rural areas and strength in the city. There are only 51 ridings, so I will be putting up brief individual riding profiles in the coming days.

On a more personal note, this is something of a historic election for me... For the first time ever, I'm an undecided voter! I'll be following the campaign a bit more than usual.

Any questions, comments? I'm always happy to chat about Maritime politics.

[VPH]

Why is Glace Bay so liberal?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Glace Bay so liberal?

It's not. People vote for the candidate in Cape Breton more than the party.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is Glace Bay so liberal?

It's not. People vote for the candidate in Cape Breton more than the party.

Exactly. People were upset at the NDP for budget cuts and Geoff MacLellan had a YUGE personal vote. Another example: People hate the Tories in Cape Breton... and the Tories have had 3-4 four MLA's on the island for the past decade. My Nana doesn't vote Tory, she votes for Alfie MacLeod.

[DC Al Fine]

Riding profile time

Annapolis Valley: The Annapolis Valley is a prosperous rural region, home to several small farming communities, a couple small towns, and a university. It is the only part of rural Nova Scotia that has a stable or even increasing population, thanks to its relative prosperity.

Annapolis
This rural farming county has historically voted Liberal and is currently held by Liberal leader Stephen McNeil. McNeil will win some ridiculous majority this time
Safe Liberal

Clare-Digby
This riding was created by merging two safe Liberal seats (Clare & Digby-Annapolis). It is a rural fishing area, has a high concentration of Acadians and is home to Nova Scotia's only French university. The Liberals ran Anglophone Gordon Wilson last time who still managed to win a sizeable victory over the Tories. Now that Wilson has an incumbent boost, he should win a sizeable majority like Annapolis or Kings West.
Safe Liberal

Hants West
This riding is mostly rural farmland with some small towns. It was represented by Tory Ron Russell for nearly 30 years. Current MLA Chuck Porter left the Tory caucus after a spat with Jamie Baillie and eventually joined the Liberals. There are a lot of tribal Tories in this riding, but Porter has defeated strong challenges before. I expect him to retain his seat.
Lean Liberal

Kings North
Kings North is a largely rural riding and is home to over half of the provinces farms. The Tories held it from 1978-2009 when the NDP won it. The Tories won it again in 2013, but only in a very close three way race. Local MLA John Lohr has had a chance to put down roots and the one term NDP MLA isn't running again, but the Liberals could still pick this one up.
Lean Tory

Kings South
Kings South is centred around Acadia University which has about 4000 students and employs a large part of the riding. With the large student contingent, the NDP have been able to punch above their weight for a rural riding and picked it up in 2009. However the Liberals picked up this seat in 2013 and I expect them to retain it now that they have an incumbent MLA.
Lean Liberal

Kings West
Home to CFB Greenwood, this riding is a mixture of soldiers and farmers. Popular Liberal MLA Leo Glavine usually wins with over 70% of the vote and is set to do so again.
Safe Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

More riding profiles

South Shore
The south shore is a rural region with a few small towns. It has been hit hard over the past couple of years due to the closure of several pulp and paper mills. Other major industries include fishing and a large  Michelin tire manufacturing facility in Lunenburg county. The South Shore is also known for it's German ancestry as it was settled by "foreign Protestants" thanks to a British government eager to populate the area quickly. There is also an Acadian area at the far souther part of the region.


Argyle-Barrington
This rural fishing area has a large Acadian population. Acadian Tory Chris D"Entremont has represented this riding since 2003. He won comfrotably and should repeat the feat again.
Safe Tory

Chester-St.Margaret's
This riding is a mixture of rural fishing and touristy areas and the exurbs outside of Halifax. All 3 parties have a strong presence here and the vote was a close three way race in 2013. The riding is gradually drifting left as Haligonians increase their share of the population, but an increased Tory vote share is keeping them in the running.
Liberal-NDP-Tory tossup

Lunenburg
Unsurprisingly, Lunenburg is centred around the town of Lunenburg, home to the Bluenose and a large frozen food company. This riding also has strong Liberal roots, mostly electing Liberals before the Tories and NDP each one it in the 2000's. With no NDP incumbent, it should go Liberal, although the Tories are still in the mix here
Lean Liberal

Lunenburg West
A mixture of rural areas and the town of Bridgewater, a manufacturing hub. This riding has historically been a Liberal stronghold, but the PC's and NDP have held it in recent years. Now that the Liberals have an incumbent, I expect them to hold it.
Lean Liberal

Queens-Shelburne
This riding was formed by the merger of the old Queens and Shelburne ridings. Both of these ridings are rural and focused on primary industry (forestry & fishing respectively) and were historically held by the Tories, but the NDP  MLA Sterling Belliveau won it in 2013. Now that Belliveau has retired, the NDP personal vote should decline. Queens is an ancestral Tory area and Shelburne is mostly Liberal but has gone Tory before and is generally smaller than Queens. I expect the Tories to pick this one up.
Lean Tory

Yarmouth
This historically Liberal fishing community was won by Tory Richard Hurlburt in 2009. However Hurlburt resigned in the midst of an expense scandal and the Liberals won the ensuing by-election, and then racked up a ridiculous majority in the 2013 election. I expect no major changes here.
Safe Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

New poll out from CRA

Liberal: 45%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 24%

[DC Al Fine]

NDP promise free dental care up to 18

Liberals have the first candidate firing of the campaign, in Pictou East

[DC Al Fine]

Fundy-North Shore
A mostly poor, rural, farming region, Fundy and the North Shore also feature some small towns and its far edges have begun turning into Halifax exurbs as suburbanites flee Halifax county's high property taxes. Historically its been a safe Tory region but it has shown quite a bit of diversity these past years.

Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
This largely rural area is a mix of farmland and Halifax commutershed. It was historically a safe conservative seat before current NDP leader Gary Burrill defeated a popular Tory councillor in a massive swing in 2009. ( The Tories went from 64% to 29%). However the Tories won it back quite comfortably, and with Burrill running in Halifax they should retain it quite easily this time.
Safe Tory

Colchester North
This rural farming community was won in 2009 by Tory MLA Karen Casey who has since jumped ship to the Liberals. Casey is extremely popular and should carry the seat despite it's natural Tory lean.
Safe Liberal

Cumberland North
Yet another rural farming area. It was historically a safe Tory seat, but went NDP in 2009 after the Tory MLA was arrested for drunk driving and ran as an independent. The Liberals unexpectedly picked up the seat in 2013 when the Tories were supposed to cruise to victory without a split vote. While the Liberal MLA is now an incumbent, the Tories are doing well and this is a 'tribal seat', so I'm not quite willing to call it for the Liberals
Liberal-Tory tossup

Cumberland South
A rural farming area, this riding is also home to the province's main prison. It is a mixture of law and order prison guards and rural conservatives and is easily the safest Tory seat in the province. It is also represented by PC leader Jamie Baillie.
Safe Tory

Hants East
This riding is mostly rural commutershed outside of Halifax. The largest industry is the nearby Stanfield International Airport. A relatively poor riding, it was represented by Dipper John MacDonnell from 1998-2013, before a Liberal took him down in one of the biggest upsets of 2013. Without MacDonnell running, the Liberals ought to hold it.
Lean Liberal

Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River
Yet another example of why boundary commissions suck at naming ridings. This riding is a carbon copy the old Truro-Bible Hill riding, only the name has been changed to include too small communities of about 500 people each. It centres around the small town of Truro, which acts as a hub for farmers around Bay of Fundy. It also contains Nova Scotia Agriculture College. This riding used to be almost perfect bellweather, but NDP candidate Lenore Zann managed to hold on to her seat in 2013, despite a Liberal landslide. There doesn't appear to be any major surge in the area, so I'm guessing she retains theseat
Lean NDP

[DC Al Fine]

First TV ads of the campaign are out:

Liberal

Tory

Keep in mind that that last ad, slamming McNeil for cuts is a Tory ad. Oh Nova Scotia politics.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP promises to raise top marginal tax rate to 57%!

[DC Al Fine]

Another CRA poll out:

Liberal: 45%
Tory: 30%
NDP: 23%