France 2017: Results Thread

[Umengus]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

[Umengus]

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

[Umengus]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-26/le-pen-ambushes-macron-with-french-plant-trip-to-attack-on-trade

good move from Marine. Her campaign for the runoff is very good. Not enough to be elected of course.

Macron is going to be very unpopular very soon (faster than Hollande, if possible).

Le Pen spent 10 minutes there with her militants taking selfies. Macron spent 1h this morning talking with unions, them 1h30 with workers, booed when he arrived, succeed to talk with them and shook hands when he left.

It was a good move from Le Pen at noon, Macron reversed the situation at 4pm.

Polls
OpinionWay
Macron: 60% (-1)
Le Pen: 40%

Ifop
Macron: 60.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 39.5%

So, net Macron win or just a draw?

so clear Marine win.

[Umengus]

Harris poll

Macron 61 (-6 compared to their last poll, before the 1rst run)
Lepen 39 (+6)

[Umengus]

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?

in Paca (south)... the right wing of UMP. i'm curious for the Nice result, a right wing city byt the mayor and Estrosi, a fervent supporter of Macron. But the (south) UMP militants hate estrosi so...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

Macron 60 (-0,5)
Marine 40 (+0,5)

Turnout: 71 % (=)

with this result (the poll consensus for now), i'm curious to see if Marine can win Paca or Haut de France regions. Paca probably. Marine needs to manage a region to prove that she's competent.

The day was not very good for Marine with bad headlines in medias but she can save the day (and more) if dupont aignan calls to vote for her. It's probable. Answer tonight.

 

[Umengus]

miss le pen's party may disagree about the existence of gas chambers, but at least the are the best shot for jews or something.

the Fn party doesn't disagree with the existence of gas chambers. Each fn member who doesn't recognize it is excluded.

[Umengus]

BVA poll

Macron 59
Marine 41

Hamon: 71 Macron 4 Marine
Melanchon 41 Macron 18 Marine
Fillon 41 Macron 26 Marine
NDA 46 Marine 19 Macron (difficult to poll)
 
 

[Umengus]

BVA poll

Macron 59
Marine 41

Hamon: 71 Macron 4 Marine
Melanchon 41 Macron 18 Marine
Fillon 41 Macron 26 Marine
NDA 46 Marine 19 Macron (difficult to poll)
 
 

BREAKING NEWS: Dupont-aignant calls to vote Marine Le Pen. Not a great suprise but good thing for Marine. Elections for the parliament in june can explain a part of his choice...

[Umengus]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Mélenchon has not said who to support in the second round. However, he will definitely vote, and he will definitely not vote for Le Pen.

The question is whether he will vote Macron or cast a blank ballot.

probably a blank vote...

[Umengus]

Odoxa poll (04/26-27, after Whirlpool incident)

Macron 59 (-4 compared to 04/24-25)
Marine 41 (+4)

[Umengus]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

NDA has nothing to lose. He was not going to be minister of Fillon or another UMP politician so his move is quite logical. For 24 hours, every medias speak about it.

[Umengus]

if Marine catches 40 % on the election day, it will be very important to see her result in PACA and Haut de France. If she obtains +50 %, she will have a good shot to manage their. 

[Umengus]

Latest BVA poll May 1-2

Macron 60% (+1)
LePen 40% (-1)

I know people want to pretend there is suspense in this run-off but lets face it, Macron will win 59-60 to 40-41

Indeed but 40-41 % (14-15 millions of votes) is a good result for Le Pen, especially if she wins Paca and Haut de France. Macron will be very fast unpopular so she will have a good shot for 2022.

[Umengus]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

The results given by the Le Monde reporter was a little bit different (51,5 in paca for Le pen) but it's ok. I think that Paca will be better.

31 % in Ile de France is not so bad...