France 2017: Results Thread

[Progressive]

Can someone provide me a primer of how poll results work in France.

*Do polls close at 8pm (France) 2pm (Eastern), or is that when results come out?
*I've heard there is no exit poll but I see places providing exit data. What's the deal?
*Do results trickle in like in the US, precinct by precinct?

[Progressive]

Any good results maps with actual numbers?

[Progressive]

Le Pen is running in 5th in Paris, lol

Are there any French people still living?

No, it's 78% morrocan, 28% Turks and 16% chinese

The sad truth is, that you're not far away from reality...

Wikipedia is your friend; the area is overwhelmingly "born in Metropolitan France": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_arrondissement_of_Paris#Immigration

Very little research needs to be done to discover that the area is very wealthy and overwhelmingly white.

Born in France does not mean that they are French ;-) But ok, I know that for you guys a sheep born in a chicken coop is a chicken, not a sheep...

Your racism is showing.

Shouting racism doesn't make you win the argument, sweetie.

I mean in fairness, equating "Born in Metropolitan France" and "not being Muslim" at the very least points to some sort of implicit bias.

ANYWAY--

Quick question re: results...would one be able to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

[Progressive]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

[Progressive]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

The polling? No. She was consistently in second place all this week.

Expectations? Well, most of the media outside of France crowned her la presidente several years ago...

She also underperformed the regional election by several points assuming she stays ~22%...

[Progressive]

From WSJ Live Blog:

26m

For Le Pen Supporters, Qualification Is Bittersweet

Getting over 20% in a presidential election and making the second round is a historic moment for the National Front party. But at around 22%, according to the latest estimations, it's well below the 27.7% the party scored in 2015 regional elections.

“We could have done better. I was expecting we’d be first and have at least 25%,” said Alexandre Maeseele, a 19-year-old local who joined the party 18 months ago.

Some, however, are galvanized by Ms. Le Pen's second-round strategy: recasting the election as a referendum on globalization.

"French people should seize this historic opportunity because what's at stake in this election is wild globalization that endangers our civilization," Ms. Le Pen said.

With that division in mind, supporters are looking to voters who cast their ballot for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon who, like Ms. Le Pen, railed against the EU and the globalized economy.

“It’s the far left so there are many ideas similar to the far right," said Caroline Zolnierczyk, a nurse who lives near Hénin-Beaumont.

“There are people who voted Mélenchon and can now vote for us. On the EU, they’ve understood it’s about free trade, falling spending power and unemployment," said Philippe Murer, an economic adviser to Ms. Le Pen.

Opinion polls, however, project that Ms. Le Pen is unlikely to pick up that many Mélenchon votes. According to a poll by Harris Interactive, only 12% of Mélenchon voters would switch to Ms. Le Pen in the second round. Ms. Le Pen is more likely to pick François Fillon's voters, of whom 23% would switch to the National Front leader in the second round, the poll shows.

[Progressive]

Is there an idea of how certain minority groups voted? French Muslims, French Jews, French Black people, etc?

[Progressive]

So what time, in EST will:

*Polls open
*Polls close

[Progressive]

Live results link with map?