France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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  France 2017: Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105311 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« on: April 23, 2017, 09:18:59 AM »

Use this thread only for results and related analysis. This thread will be open for the first round and second round. The main thread and predictions will be closed sometime tomorrow and reopened after the first round.

Basic rules of this thread, in addition to forum and board rules:

-No references to Austria

That fully depends on the results after 8pm and not on what our local thread "dictator" wants ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 09:52:31 AM »

Yeah, an "exit poll" conducted at 2pm would make a lot of sense when you've got an additional 6 hours to vote ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 10:05:18 AM »

Still heading for a nice 80% turnout ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2017, 10:08:50 AM »

Can someone provide me a primer of how poll results work in France.

*Do polls close at 8pm (France) 2pm (Eastern), or is that when results come out?
*I've heard there is no exit poll but I see places providing exit data. What's the deal?
*Do results trickle in like in the US, precinct by precinct?

A) Both. Many polls close at 7pm, but some bigger cities keep theirs open until 8pm. After 8, the results come in.

B) "Just to clarify, estimates released by pollsters at 8pm are based on real results from samples of 250-300 polling stations, not exit polls. At previous elections polling stations outside big cities closed at 6pm giving pollsters two hours to crunch data. This year they have <1 hr."

C) Usually yes, if I remember the Interior Ministry page correctly.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2017, 11:01:15 AM »

17:00 turnout changes ...

LE PEN's 10 best departments from 2012:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2017, 11:15:42 AM »

17:00 turnout changes ...

LE PEN's 10 best departments from 2012:



...


MELENCHON's 10 best departments from 2012:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2017, 11:29:00 AM »

Is that compared with the final turnout of 2012 or turnout around 17:00?

17:00 for both 2012 and 2017.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2017, 11:29:38 AM »

17:00 turnout changes ...

LE PEN's 10 best departments from 2012:



...


MELENCHON's 10 best departments from 2012:



...


SARKOZY's 10 best departments from 2012:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2017, 11:40:40 AM »

17:00 turnout changes ...

LE PEN's 10 best departments from 2012:



...


MELENCHON's 10 best departments from 2012:



...


SARKOZY's 10 best departments from 2012:



...

HOLLANDE's 10 best departments from 2012:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2017, 11:48:50 AM »

Also interesting:

In areas where Le Pen did get the highest number of absolute votes, not percentages, (Nord, Bouches-du-Rhône, Pas-de-Calais) turnout is largely stable and actually increased in PdC.

In areas where Hollande got the most votes (Nord, Paris and Gironde), it's stable in Nord, a solid increase in Paris and a huge drop in Gironde.

Melenchon's 3 top-vote areas were Nord, Bouches-du-Rhône and Paris (stable, stable, gain).

Sarkozy's best areas in absolute votes: the same as for Melenchon.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2017, 11:54:43 AM »


Don't know really, you cannot read a lot into these numbers.

But I guess it's very good news for both Melenchon and Macron that turnout isn't dropping off significantly in former Hollande-strongholds as well as Melenchon's 2012 strongholds.

Because if the former Hollande and Melenchon-voters are turning out there, they will go en-masse to Melenchon and Macron this time. But Le Pen and Fillon also seem to hold up well ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2017, 12:04:39 PM »

Charente-Maritime seems to be the perfect "show-me" departement (it voted within 1% of every major candidate in 2012):

Turnout: 70.19% (70.76% in 2012)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2017, 02:12:40 PM »

Le Point probably has the best map of all, with live results and comparisons with 2012:

http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/

Currently, Le Pen does 5-10% better than in 2012.

(Click on a department that's reporting and then compare with 2012)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2017, 02:16:32 PM »

In the South, Melenchon seems to eat into Le Pen's support.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2017, 02:26:35 PM »

In Somme Dept., Le Pen is doing 10% better than in 2012 so far.

I guess she has to do well up there, because she'll utterly fail in the bigger cities.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2017, 02:40:57 AM »

Also I noticed the gender divide wasn't very significant, with only 4% difference between male and female support for Le Pen. It was huge in Austria, if I remember correctly it was almost a 30% difference.
edit: found that exit poll, it was
Men: Hofer 56%, Van Der Bellen 44%
Women: Van Der Bellen 62%, Hofer 38%

Get ready for your banning ...

Basic rules of this thread, in addition to forum and board rules:

-No references to Austria
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2017, 02:48:01 AM »

Interesting that the Dept. of Charente-Maritime once again ended up voting exactly like France as a whole, being within 1% of each candidate.

Just like in 2012.

It's the Vigo County and Upper Austria of France.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2017, 03:29:58 AM »

Of the 12.000 French in Austria, most - obviously - live in Vienna.

So, here you can vote at the French consulate in Innsbruck and Vienna.

Yesterday, there were massive lines of 4 hours (!) outside the Vienna consulate.

This is not normal.

Why does France not allow postal voting for French abroad who are eligible ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2017, 03:50:59 AM »

Strache (FPÖ) congratulated Le Pen, but also said she'll fail to win the runoff because there will be a conspiracy against her by all the other parties and candidates and the media.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2017, 12:19:48 PM »

Today's cartoon from the "Standard", about voters choosing sides in the runoff:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2017, 04:01:08 AM »

Looks like Elabe has the race at 64-36 right now. And they were the most accurate in round 1.

Le Pen is definitely going to struggle with the 35% ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2017, 04:58:40 AM »

Austrian Frenchies:

46.7% Macron
19.3% Fillon
14.9% Melenchon
10.6% Hamon
  3.9% Le Pen
  4.6% Others

https://at.ambafrance.org/Ergebnis-des-Ersten-Wahlganges-der-franzosischen-Prasidentschaftswahlen-8867
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #22 on: April 25, 2017, 11:09:18 AM »

Question for the French posters:

How many runoff debates/interviews are there ? And when is the next one ?

And have Melenchon and Dupont (or the small candidates) made some moves on who they are going to support (if at all) ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2017, 11:22:39 AM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 09:16:00 AM by Hash »


Is that definitely or only for now ?

I heard something that he waits a couple days to talk with his voters what they want and then announces his decision. His voters btw support Macron by a 78-22 margin (if you remove those who abstain).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2017, 12:01:51 PM »

Okay, important question: I'm trying to make a map of the overseas vote from the PDF someone posted above. I speak French pretty well, but I was going through the results, and one was listed for somewhere called "Ancienne République" (Old/Ancient Republic). I wasn't familiar with what country this refers to in France, so I went into French Wikipedia and typed it in. It brought me to the page for the Old Republic from Star Wars. So, is there a country "Ancienne République" in French, or do Jedis also get to vote in overseas French elections?



That's similar to Irmgard Griss, who also waited a few days/weeks to listen to her voters and then endorsed Van der Bellen before the runoff.
Stop...

Why, what's wrong with pointing that out ?
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