France 2017: Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen doing very well in Northern France, many places getting upper 40's and doing well in the East.

Where are you seeing geographic results?

Gotta click on the region http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

They chose way too dark a brown for Le Pen. It's hard to see the boundaries where one place she won borders another.

[Tintrlvr]

Lassalle is winning communes in Pyrénées-Atlantiques? Is that supposed to happen? https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/pyrenees-atlantiques-64/

I'm not shocked that he's doing well in Bearnais/Basque areas. That's his home turf.

[Tintrlvr]

Haven't even seen Hamon win any communes yet... Dupont Aignan got a few up north though.

Hamon won a bunch of heavily indigenous communes on Nouvelle-Caledonie, including one where he got 59% of the vote. Doubt he wins any in Metropolitan France, though. His best shot was in Finistere, where he's from, but he's only getting mid-teens in his best communes in Finistere so far, well behind Macron and Melenchon.

[Tintrlvr]

Haven't even seen Hamon win any communes yet... Dupont Aignan got a few up north though.

Hamon won a bunch of heavily indigenous communes on Nouvelle-Caledonie. Doubt he wins any in Metropolitan France, though. His best shot was in Finistere, where he's from, but he's only getting mid-teens in his best communes in Finistere so far, well behind Macron and Melenchon.

Do you have a map of New Caledonia? I can't find any results for it yet.

It's on the France24 page, which has results for most overseas departments finished. Click on New Caledonia and it will zoom in and show results by commune. Enormous racial divide, as per usual.

http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

Edit: Hamon also won a commune on La Reunion.

[Tintrlvr]

I found a commune in metropolitan France with Hamon in the lead: http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

Yes, I found a few in Haute-Garonne high in the Pyrenees. Amusingly, one Hamon commune borders a Lassalle commune, and, in two of them, Le Pen got zero votes. A different political world from the rest of France...

Edit: There's also a remote one nearby in Haute-Pyrenees.

[Tintrlvr]

I found a commune in metropolitan France with Hamon in the lead: http://graphics.france24.com/resultats-1er-tour-election-presidentielle-2017/

Yes, I found a few in Haute-Garonne high in the Pyrenees. Amusingly, one Hamon commune borders a Lassalle commune, and, in two of them, Le Pen got zero votes. A different political world from the rest of France...

I realize now that my link is broken. I was looking at Nouvelle-Aquitaine > Landes  > Saint-Aubin

That's another one! And Larbey, which borders it, also voted for Hamon. Not as mountainous or tiny as my examples, either, though all with three-digit populations.

[Tintrlvr]

Two more departments finish:

Ariege
Melenchon: 27%
Le Pen: 22%
Macron: 21%
Fillon: 13%

Vosges
Le Pen: 29%
Macron: 20%
Fillon: 18%
Melenchon: 17%

[Tintrlvr]

Weirdly, Lassalle has won a couple of communes on Corse-Sud (and tied with Fillon in a third), which are obviously well outside of the Bearnais/Basque areas. Anyone have any idea why?

[Tintrlvr]

Another department done:

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
Le Pen: 24.53%
Melenchon: 22.51%
Macron: 20.02%
Fillon: 18.50%
Hamon: 5.00%
Dupont-Aignan: 4.87%
Lassalle: 1.73%
Poutou: 1.18%
Asselineau: 0.93%
Arthaud: 0.52%
Cheminade: 0.21%

[Tintrlvr]

Estimate figures have Macron at 23.9%, Le Pen at 21.7% and Fillon at 20%

Given that the estimates are based only on areas reporting and Le Pen is expected to do much worse in cities and Fillon much better, while as far as I can tell no cities of any significant size are reporting yet, there's still a tiny room for error that Fillon could edge Le Pen and make it to the runoff. Very unlikely, though.

[Tintrlvr]

Silly question....

are there many big city counties included right now or does that work like everywhere?

I don't see any cities reporting yet. Even most suburbs seem to still be out.

[Tintrlvr]

paris comes last? absurd :X

Cities close later and are super slow to count.

[Tintrlvr]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

I don't think so. The latest polls showed her at around 22%, the result she achieved tonight. The polls were fantastically accurate. A big applause for them!

She's going to end up rounding down to 21%, I think. It's all cities left to report, and her results in the Paris metro in particular are hilariously bad (sub 5%).

[Tintrlvr]

Le Pen has come 5th in every arrondissement of Paris that's come in so far.

Also - Mélenchon is doing very well in the parts of Ile de France east of Paris.

She's in 4th in the 8th arrondissement (with less than 5% of the vote).

[Tintrlvr]

  So which parts of Paris would be considered the wealthiest?  

The west side of Paris. The 7th, 8th and 16th arrondissements in particular, but there's also a lot of wealth in the 6th, 15th and 17th.

[Tintrlvr]

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

I would hope not, I wish we could see a similar system here in the U.S.

He's talking about the primaries, not the top-two runoff. The primaries are basically the same as the US and inspired by it. I think primaries are likely to fall out of favor in Europe generally for other reasons; the only reason they got popular to begin with was because so many Europeans loved Barack Obama, but the primary results in 2016 on both sides were obviously less of the sort likely to inspire any more Europeans to want primaries.

[Tintrlvr]

I recall a bunch of people poo-pooing the idea that Hauts-de-Seine would be Fillon's best department in Metropolitan France... He didn't win it, but it was his best department after all, edging Sarthe, with 29.14% of the vote. Macron won it with 32.30%. (I predicted Yvelines as Fillon's best department, so I don't win prediction kudos on this one, either.)

[Tintrlvr]

Who won more communes: Hamon, Dupont-Aignan or Lassalle?

Lassalle easily. All those communes in Pyrenees-Atlantiques.

[Tintrlvr]

Too lazy to read all this. What areas did Fillon win and why? What areas did Melenchon win and why?

Who won all the weird territories?

In Metropolitan France, Fillon won a patch of traditionally right-wing departments in the center-west plains of the country (including Sarthe, his home department), remote and lightly populated Lozere in the Massif Central (which is also traditionally very loyally right-wing) and Haute-Savoie (super rich ski country and Geneva suburbs). He shockingly lost Vendee to Macron, which fits the same mold as Lozere and the Sarthe-Mayenne-Orne trio and is the most traditionally right-wing department in the country. His best department in Metropolitan France was none of these, however; it was Hauts-de-Seine, the mostly wealthy western suburbs of Paris, where he nonetheless lost overall to Macron.

In Metropolitan France, Melenchon won in two traditionally very left-wing and rural departments, Ariege in the Pyrenees and Dordogne in the southwest. His best department, however, was Seine-Saint-Denis, the lower-income and immigrant-heavy northeastern suburbs of Paris, which he also won.

Everywhere else in Metropolitan France, either Macron or Le Pen led. Generally, there was a strong east (Le Pen)-west (Macron) divide, although Macron won some mountainous areas in the east also and of course won everything in the Paris metro except Seine-Saint-Denis, and Le Pen won a couple of departments in the Garonne valley. Macron's best department in Metropolitan France was Paris proper, while Le Pen's was, to much surprise, Aisne, which is a somewhat nondescript rural department in northern France with no urban areas of any significant size and that has significant left-wing history, unusual for a rural department outside of the southwest/mountains.

Outside Metropolitan France, results were relatively random, with Melenchon dominating some areas, Fillon others, and Macron winning a couple. Le Pen put up strong results in a few overseas departments (especially traditionally right-wing ones like Mayotte and New Caledonia, as well as Guyane with its anti-immigration sentiments over Caribbean and Brazilian migrants) but didn't win any, although she did win both departments on Corsica.

[Tintrlvr]

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

I think it is almost certain that Melenchon won the Muslim vote given the results in Seine-Saint-Denis, and also in NW Marseille, NE Paris and other patches of Muslim concentration, such as the commune of Trappes in Yvelines, though it's also clear that in at least some of these places, Hamon did abnormally well, and I think it is probably the case that Melenchon did less well with Muslims in these places than with non-Muslims (it just so happens that the most Melenchon-friendly non-Muslim voters tend to live in areas with a relatively high concentration of Muslims - not terribly surprising). That said, Macron also did well in Muslim areas for the most part, especially for a candidate running as a centrist rather than a left-winger.

[Tintrlvr]

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.

Macron is a man without a party, though. If Macron fails, there's plenty of room for the PS, or another left-wing alternative, to come roaring back without having to take the blame for his failures. I think what his impending victory shows the most is that there is no nationwide victory available for the FN in France, period, with the sole exception if they are lucky enough to end up in a runoff with a fatally crippled traditional right-wing candidate where the center and left stay home (though even Fillon would likely have won a runoff against Le Pen). The left-wing and centrist vote will keep reorganizing itself in different forms to block the FN at every turn, and the remaining traditional right-wing vote is not the type that is sympathetic to the FN's cause.

[Tintrlvr]

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.

I do think Trump has hurt the far-right in Europe significantly, both because he is wildly and very publicly incompetent, and that makes voters think twice about Trump-like candidates, and because there are a certain number of voters in continental Europe who are knee-jerk opposed to anything the US does, which meant sympathy for far-right anti-internationalist/pro-Putin parties when Obama was President but the opposite now. (Not that I think these people voted for Macron, but many likely voted for Melenchon but would have voted for Le Pen if the election had been in April 2016.)

[Tintrlvr]

If Macron does win in the second round, which he most likely will outside of a nightmare scenario, then I think that's setting up an even bigger disaster down the line. When you boil it down, he's really a continuation of Hollande's neoliberal policies, and his main selling point is this cultural liberalism that I think can only get people excited for so long.
 
Base point, people don't like neoliberal economics. And if Macron is really going to tear down the labor unions and govern as a pro-business centrist, I have no doubt there's going to be another Le Pen that comes down the line who's able to better sell right-wing populism to people, and outright win.
 
You think it can't happen there in France? We didn't think it would happen in the US, and we ended up with Trump after the path was set down by the Clintons in the 1990s for a truly terrifying kind of conservatism with the Republican Revolution of 1994. Buckle up.

Macron is a man without a party, though. If Macron fails, there's plenty of room for the PS, or another left-wing alternative, to come roaring back without having to take the blame for his failures. I think what his impending victory shows the most is that there is no nationwide victory available for the FN in France, period, with the sole exception if they are lucky enough to end up in a runoff with a fatally crippled traditional right-wing candidate where the center and left stay home (though even Fillon would likely have won a runoff against Le Pen). The left-wing and centrist vote will keep reorganizing itself in different forms to block the FN at every turn, and the remaining traditional right-wing vote is not the type that is sympathetic to the FN's cause.

The French left can't incompetently govern forever just because of FN.

But Macron isn't "the French left." That's the whole point. They don't have to take the blame for any of his mistakes (but can claim him as one of their own if he is successful). Though TBH we may well be looking at President Melenchon in 2022 if Macron trips, which is not a particularly appealing prospect. At the least Melenchon is likely to be the leader of the left-wing opposition to Macron, while the leader on the right is less clear (perhaps Sarkozy) and the (traditional, non-FN) right IMO will be more easily co-opted by Macron than the left, or at least the part of the left represented by Melenchon.

[Tintrlvr]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France? And conversely the San Fran/Boston/NYC of France?

There aren't any of those. France is just one giant Midwest. Paris is Chicago.

+

I always thought the Southern coast was particularly right-wing (and I think also somewhere in Northeast France as well). I admit I haven't followed French politics in some time.

Is anyone here going to say without a doubt that Le Pen won't be the next President of France? Or are they like me now, someone who just won't feel comfortable until the results are final?

This first-round result made Le Pen's chances at victory even more clearly remote. She did not outperform her polling at all, and even maybe underperformed it just slightly. She's polling, on average, about 20 points behind Macron, with just two weeks of campaigning to happen. If there were some huge Macron scandal available to blow up in his face, Fillon and/or Melenchon would have made it happen before the first round. It's over.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin). It's unclear whether Hamon will get to carry on the banner of the rump left of PS or if that task will fall to someone else; it is clear that Sarkozy will come back and lead the rump right of LR. I think it is unlikely that Melenchon and the PS reconcile, so Melenchon will also lead his own left-wing list, though likely without NPA, who may work with the rump PS. EELV I think will split, with some supporting Macron and others supporting the rump PS or possibly Melenchon depending on what he is willing to offer them.

Ultimately the EM coalition will get a huge majority as EM should win a runoff vs. any other party pretty much everywhere (and there will be a lot of EM v. FN runoffs, which will be a particularly easy walk for EM). The rump PS list could get close to completely wiped out unless the unlikely happens and they work with Melenchon as they are unlikely to even make it to many runoffs with the left-wing vote fragmented. Melenchon's list may do somewhat better (they are generally probably best positioned "party" in runoffs vs. EM, at least in areas already sympathetic to the left) but will also struggle to make it to many runoffs. Rump LR will also do quite badly as it hard to see them winning many runoffs against EM.

That said, the EM coalition's majority will be fractious, fragile and hard to govern despite its enormous size.