France 2017: Results Thread

[alomas]

The good thing is Le Pen will lose. The bad (and maybe even worse) thing is Macron will win. This country is in crisis anyway.

[alomas]

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

[alomas]

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.

Yeah, nationalist candidate just create more unpredictability, but there is no such thng as permanent nationalist-bias in the polls. The problem is treating 3-point lead as an assured win, while it is not. I personally think Nate Silver is doing a very good job and analysed US election very well.

Macron 59.8-40.2 Le Pen as we edge to 30%. Marine about to drop to 30s any time soon.

[alomas]

Over a third of the vote in, Macron already 20+ points ahead and increasing the margin. Expected a better performance from Le Pen, to get into the 40s.

Any reporting on what % of the ballots are "Spoilt and null votes"?

I heard 'nearly a third' of the votes are either abstentions or blank votes.

[alomas]

President Trump tweeted his congratulations for Macron.

61-39 Macron with close to 15 million votes counted, we should be over a 40% mark in vote count.

[alomas]

Kantar increased Macron's margin by four tenths. Very strong performance for him.

61.6-38.4 past the halfway point.

[alomas]

20 million votes already in, Macron leads Le Pen 62.1 to 37.9. Still nothing from Paris.