France 2017: Results Thread

[Hydera]

Is Fillon or Macron more conservative.? I always forget.

Fillon is more conservative on economic and much much more conservative on social issues.

[Hydera]

FBM

[Hydera]

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.

[Hydera]

For all the talk of LGBT support for the FN.  They got just an average of 4% in the two districts in Paris with a sizable gay population.

All that means is the LGBT vote similarly to non-LGBT, considering Le Pen's 5% score in Paris. She did much better with LGBT outside of Paris.

Well 50% of LGBT of France live in Paris the and a ton of the rest live in the big cities + the Ile-de-France region. So what.... she might of outperformed with the remaining 5-15% of french LGBT who unfortunately arent able to live in cities?

[Hydera]

if the first round polls were off enough to exclude macron....biggest upset in a LOOOONG time...

if the second round polls would be off enough to make le pen the winner.....biggest possible french upset ever and would make mincemeat out of the polling companies.

the russian intelligence...i mean wikileaks...would need to drop more or less "believable" stuff on a whole new level and even that would not secure a le pen victory. even francois "baggage" fillon would have been the favorite and no one can still remember all of his faults ans mistakes at this point.

They dont have dirt in Macron so their just focusing on creating fake stories. AKA: Macron was secretly gay according to a fake news article. It spread amongst wildfire amongst FN voters and some socially conservative manif pour tous type LR supporters. But was laughed off by everybody else.

They also spread a fake article about Macron having an offshore bank account which was fake but some leftwing supporters sadly believed it.

Thanks!

Seine-Saint-Denis is mostly Muslim immigrants, right? Does it look like Melenchon won the Muslim/immigrant vote? He was supposed to be a scary nationalist so that would be a little surprising. Was it just a result of him being the de facto left-wing candidate?

He also won Mariselle which i guess had a lot to do with its muslim population. And yes it would be because he's the main leftwing candidate after the collapse of the Socialist Party this election cycle. A lot of muslims in france tend to live in poorer suburban public housing and have lower paying jobs which would create support for Melenchon.

[Hydera]

So what's the West Virginia/Alabama of France?

What a weird question, since West Virginia and Alabama have very different political histories.

Of course, but you get the point. Very working class and right wing and stereotypically conservative.

Alabama - Southern coast of France. was formerly a bastion of the Left until immigration and cultural issues after rising immigration from former french colonies made a lot of people switch to the FN and vote for the center-right candidate like Chirac, sarkozy because of immigration.

West Virginia - The formerly Industrial + coal mining regions of northeastern france near belgium. It also was a bastion of the Left until deindustrialization starting in the 1970s hit industries there and coal declined in favor of Nuclear power. Then also a lot of immigrants from the former french colonies were resettled there to boost the population in those areas. Both factors created a wave of anger that allowed FN to rise there. Since the 90s, The center-right has gotten a lot of votes in the second round in this region despite being more economically right-wing since people prioritized ethnic issues instead of economics.

[Hydera]

Any ideas on how long till french expat votes are counted? It would be interesting to see how much Macron got from those numbers.

[Hydera]

Paris results according to candidate. Macron does well in the center. Fillon as expected wins mainly the wealthy areas in the west. And melenchon does well in the eastern areas with a high portion of social housing.

[Hydera]

Question, if there was a generic candidate of the right out there, without any personal baggage, who was running on Le Pens platform, but wasn't associated at all with the FN, would they be perceived as on the far right?  And would such a candidate have a chance of winning.  Before his personal baggage was exposed, it seemed that on immigration Fillon was coming fairly close to Le Pen politically.

The closest to that was Sarkozy '07 when he gained traction in the primaries for the main center-right party because he was best seen as somebody who could pull the vast majority of FN voters(90% of them voted for him in the second round despite Sarkozy running on an more economically right-wing platform just because he was one of the candidates of the main parties who they shared closest with views on immigration. (Which was helped because when he was the mayor of a suburban ille de france commune he refused to accept the building of public housing). 

He was perceived as sympathetic to the far-right but not considered far-right.

[Hydera]

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1978/fichier_intentions_de_vote_-_vague_18_-_pop2017_-_19_avril_2017_-_presentation5e34d.pdf


For those who were wondering about the alternative scenarios. Page 24/25

Neither any of the candidates up against Le Pen would of been able to break 70% due a significant amount of the electorate in any of the scenarios because of absentions /or some voting for Le Pen due to unhappiness with their candidate losing.

[Hydera]

So what's up with Le Pen stepping down from her party?

she is making an attempt to appeal to voters by "distancing" herself from the party, which she really will not be at all.

It'll all be an extremely big flop, let's be honest.

Im "stepping down from my party temporarily to focus on my campaign" is if her party was stopping her from focusing on her campaign in the first place.

But don't be surprised when some social conservative fillon voters say "wow i wasnt thinking of voting for her but OMG she stepped down from her party so that means she's so acceptable to me now!!".

[Hydera]

Trump fanboys on reddit are trying to claim that Marine stepping down as President of the FN for two weeks is a major game changer. Meanwhile on major french websites its already old news.

[Hydera]

How the Far-right support appeared in 1956, 1965, 1984, and 2007.










The FN lost supported in the Ile-de-france when it switched from a thatcherite economic policy to that closer of the PS on economic issues.  But it also gained support in the former industrial/coal mining regions near Belgium.

Meanwhile they always did well in the Southern coast of France oweing mainly to the Pied-noirs and their descendants.

https://tinyurl.com/lbcmtwx

[Hydera]

following this message from earlier today.....which was posted here:

fake accounts are sharing it

 
 
They are not even coherent in their rumors. Just a couple weeks ago he was supposed to be gay. 
 
Well, does anybody have the results for the French in Germany?

https://ca.ambafrance.org/Election-presidentielle-Resultats-du-premier-tour-pour-les-Francais-de-l


They have a pdf of results for every country now.

[Hydera]

https://ca.ambafrance.org/Election-presidentielle-Resultats-du-premier-tour-pour-les-Francais-de-l

They also have results based on city, but the file is formatted strange.

Montreal has Macron an melenchon not far behind which is surprising since my idea of french expats in montreal was that they were more of the higher income group.

Le Pen did well in a part of Argentina, getting 32%.

Her best city in the US for Le Pen was Miami at 13%.

And she also performed well in some Eastern european cities like St. Petersburg, Minsk, Belgrade.

And strangly did well with french expats in Djibouti(!!!??!) and Dominican Republic

[Hydera]

And strangly did well with french expats in Djibouti(!!!??!)

There is a large French military base in Djibouti, I assume her votes are from soldiers rather than traditional expats.

Makes sense, some people were running away with the idea that Le Pen did well amongst foreign french residents of immigrant background.

[Hydera]

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

Also Pied-noirs.  Plus higher unemployment because of lack of a value producing industry other than tourism which feeds into resentment.

[Hydera]

http://www.liberation.fr/direct/element/le-pcf-appelle-a-voter-macron-puis-a-le-combattre-apres-lelection_62541/

The french communist party has decided to call on its supporters to vote for Macron to block Le Pen from power.

Meanwhile Melenchon made a survey for his supporters on whether to endorse Macron or abstain with a deadline of May 2.

[Hydera]

For all the talk about who will or won't abstain...imagine if the run-off was between LePen and Fillon. If you think a lot of Melenchon voters have a hard time holding their noses and voting from Macron even against LePen...imagine how anyone who voted for Melenchon, Hamon or Macron would have felt about the French equivalent of having to choose only between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump

Its obvious that unlike in 2002. that the defeated candidates couldnt bring their voters to support the other because a lot of them are too prideful. Every matchup polling has Fillon, Melenchon and Macron only in 60-62% vs Le Pen because of abstentions.

[Hydera]

Structure of the vote in every Presidential election since 1965:



Literally the worst result ever for the combined left.

Kind of crazy how many UDF voters in 1981 switched to the FN in 1988. (Or also a lot of RPR voters and UDF voters went to the FN but enough UDF voters supplemented the RPR vote in 1988 to make it have the same result as in 1981.)

[Hydera]

It is quite interesting, how much of a meltdown the left is having about macron. Whereas backing Chirac in 2002 was seen as obvious. Even for the PCF

Sadly the circumstances for another 82% vs 18% blowout against the FN is unlikely.


The FN reaching second round was really unexpected. Also Jean-marie Le Pen made holocaust denial remarks that was widely condemned. Plus there was no Melenchon like figure on the left. And Marine le pen made a lot of steps to "normalize" the FN for the public by expelling openly racist FN figures even her father and enforced stronger party standards to prevent members from giving racist statements that characterized the FN during her father. As a result 41% of the french public in recent polls considered the FN a "normal regular party" and 43% consider it a threat to the republic in contrast to 2002.

[Hydera]

The new meme that 4chan and r/t_D are trying to push is that Macron has a secret bank account in the Caymans. They're desperate.

They said it was the Bahamas and now they changed it to the caymans?


In other news, hacked documents and private computer filters orginating from macron and his team has been uploaded by wikileaks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-leaks-idUSKBN1812AZ?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

[Hydera]

I think it was always Caymans but I'm also hearing Bahamas too. It's so stupid.

super unlikely to change any votes since the reporting of BS claims by le pen who heard about the BS claims on 4chan and tried to use it on the debate might of actually lowered her support.

[Hydera]

So is Moscow trying to send a message to the incoming president or just perfunctorily supporting LePen? It sounds Macron was careful in his security measures.

Interesting the Russians are sending a message on Election Eve. They know they can't swing the vote so why?

French law means that the press are blocked from reporting on the election till the exit polls on sunday and even the campaigns are to be put on a hold by law until then. They probably didnt realize that whatever fake documents they had would had been more damaging if released earlier this week.

[Hydera]

Apparently Alt-right trump supporters on 4chan "found" an email claiming that macron's campaign shipped drugs to an MP and paid for the drugs with bitcoins. And this is the only thing interesting that has came from the files and even a lot of time are doubting it.