France 2017: Results Thread
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #675 on: April 24, 2017, 06:14:05 AM »

Do you also think the people of France will be like "Oh man look at what Trump is doing in America, do we want someone like that here? let's see the least Trumpy option" and vote Marcon for that reason? That line of reasoning is probably what led down Hofer in Austria and Wilders in the Netherlands.

I do think Trump has hurt the far-right in Europe significantly, both because he is wildly and very publicly incompetent, and that makes voters think twice about Trump-like candidates, and because there are a certain number of voters in continental Europe who are knee-jerk opposed to anything the US does, which meant sympathy for far-right anti-internationalist/pro-Putin parties when Obama was President but the opposite now. (Not that I think these people voted for Macron, but many likely voted for Melenchon but would have voted for Le Pen if the election had been in April 2016.)

That's exactly what I was thinking too. Also Brexit as well as Turkey's Erdogan and even Philippines Duterte may also have influence it too. May make voters think twice about Le Pen.
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Hydera
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« Reply #676 on: April 24, 2017, 06:57:03 AM »

Any ideas on how long till french expat votes are counted? It would be interesting to see how much Macron got from those numbers.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #677 on: April 24, 2017, 07:16:12 AM »

The only conservative thing about these "conservatives" in Europe is going to church on Christmas. LMAO, what a bunch of traitors but so many honest righ-wing people are falling for it...

Whatever, not bad for LePen to have the whole Establishment against her. Makes it easier to get the 40% I rate as a success.

The only honest rightism supports the freedom of trade and movement. Protectionism and restrictions are characteristics of far-leftist regimes.

The only consistent feature of rightist throughout history is nationalism.

The Liberals were the nationalists in 1848. The Conservatives fought for monarchy.

19th century Conservatives were usually protectionists, free trade was the Liberal (= left wing) position.
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jaichind
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« Reply #678 on: April 24, 2017, 08:11:22 AM »

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #679 on: April 24, 2017, 08:21:04 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 08:26:03 AM by Tintrlvr »

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin). It's unclear whether Hamon will get to carry on the banner of the rump left of PS or if that task will fall to someone else; it is clear that Sarkozy will come back and lead the rump right of LR. I think it is unlikely that Melenchon and the PS reconcile, so Melenchon will also lead his own left-wing list, though likely without NPA, who may work with the rump PS. EELV I think will split, with some supporting Macron and others supporting the rump PS or possibly Melenchon depending on what he is willing to offer them.

Ultimately the EM coalition will get a huge majority as EM should win a runoff vs. any other party pretty much everywhere (and there will be a lot of EM v. FN runoffs, which will be a particularly easy walk for EM). The rump PS list could get close to completely wiped out unless the unlikely happens and they work with Melenchon as they are unlikely to even make it to many runoffs with the left-wing vote fragmented. Melenchon's list may do somewhat better (they are generally probably best positioned "party" in runoffs vs. EM, at least in areas already sympathetic to the left) but will also struggle to make it to many runoffs. Rump LR will also do quite badly as it hard to see them winning many runoffs against EM.

That said, the EM coalition's majority will be fractious, fragile and hard to govern despite its enormous size.
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mvd10
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« Reply #680 on: April 24, 2017, 08:25:20 AM »

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I don't think Macron voters would have much trouble with a centrist like Juppé as PM if it's necessary. It's going to be a different story if he picks someone as right-wing as Sarkozy or Fillon but that's not going to happen. Actually picking a centrist LR politician as PM might be really smart, it would hopelessly divide LR.

But EM probably will win a large majority in the legislative elections. Sarkozy might dream of a glorious comeback, but he is the last person who would beat Macron in his honeymoon.
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DL
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« Reply #681 on: April 24, 2017, 08:30:08 AM »

Wasn't there some speculation that he might pick Francois Bayrou as his PM?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #682 on: April 24, 2017, 08:31:37 AM »

Strache (FPÖ) congratulated Le Pen, but also said she'll fail to win the runoff because there will be a conspiracy against her by all the other parties and candidates and the media.

You just reposted the anti-Austria rule...
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jaichind
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« Reply #683 on: April 24, 2017, 08:33:05 AM »


I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin). It's unclear whether Hamon will get to carry on the banner of the rump left of PS or if that task will fall to someone else; it is clear that Sarkozy will come back and lead the rump right of LR. I think it is unlikely that Melenchon and the PS reconcile, so Melenchon will also lead his own left-wing list, though likely without NPA, who may work with the rump PS. EELV I think will split, with some supporting Macron and others supporting the rump PS or possibly Melenchon depending on what he is willing to offer them.

Ultimately the EM coalition will get a huge majority as EM should win a runoff vs. any other party pretty much everywhere (and there will be a lot of EM v. FN runoffs, which will be a particularly easy walk for EM). The rump PS list could get close to completely wiped out unless the unlikely happens and they work with Melenchon as they are unlikely to even make it to many runoffs with the left-wing vote fragmented. Melenchon's list may do somewhat better (they are generally probably best positioned "party" in runoffs vs. EM, at least in areas already sympathetic to the left) but will also struggle to make it to many runoffs. Rump LR will also do quite badly as it hard to see them winning many runoffs against EM.

That said, the EM coalition's majority will be fractious, fragile and hard to govern despite its enormous size.

Yes. that is another path, break PS and LR.  If he can pull that off then for sure with rump PS, rump LR, FG, and FN all running separately a Macron  block would win a crushing majority.  I guess the main reason I did not give much weight to this scenario is that a coalitions of defectors would be factious at best and could melt away if the going gets tough.  
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #684 on: April 24, 2017, 08:35:02 AM »

Since my french is lacking....has sarko published a statement?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #685 on: April 24, 2017, 09:44:17 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 10:51:02 AM by Rogier »

I wonder how President Macron and EM will go about building a legislative majority in the upcoming elections.  I assume EM will form an alliance with MoDem.  If so then what else.  Will EM-MoDem try for an alliance with PS-EELV?  Would EELV be on board with this?  Given how PS got hammered in the first round would not an alliance between PS and EM mean that a good part of the PS base would then decamp and join FG?  I think PS is about to face the PASOK problem of 2012.

If going Left does not work then would EM-MoDem try for an alliance with LR?  I assume LR would go with this if they get to pick the PM.  But if Macron does a deal like that would he not alienate the center-left voters that formed a significant if not majority of his first round voters (looking at exit polls it seems 47% of Hollande 2012 voters voted for Macron while only 17% of Sarkozy voters voted for Marcon.)

I think the wholesale defection of MoDem, UDI and PRG to EM are givens. A large portion of prominent PS'ers on the right of the party will also run under the EM banner (e.g., Valls), as will a large portion of prominent LR'ers on the left of the party (e.g., Juppe, Baroin).

The noises coming out of the LR camp still indicate that they are united as a force and motivated to stay within the Right. Juppé said as much in his speech. He is still a Vth Republic Gaullist.

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For sure, Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.


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EELV have already split, what seems like a long time ago. De Rugy took the reformists to the PS primary, lost, and endorsed Macron. People like De Rugy and Jean-Vincent Placé will not be missed, I imagine.

Jadot indicated last night he would not continue any cooperation with the PS. EELV could still win a few token seats.

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Well, LR managed to reach 20% with one of the worst possible candidates. Lower turnout could really help them too.
We need to see how many Macron voters want a centre-right government. That would indicate they were just pissed with Fillon.

Since my french is lacking....has sarko published a statement?

Found nothing yet. He will probably find some strength to endorse Macron the way Estrosi did, but its the stance of the LR is the legislatives that is important. If the Sarkozistes call for a neither FN nor EM for their vote, that could push some of their centrists to deffect, and in addition make Macron look more towards his left.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #686 on: April 24, 2017, 10:24:12 AM »

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DL
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« Reply #687 on: April 24, 2017, 10:40:32 AM »

Is there a link to these results by country for French abroad?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #688 on: April 24, 2017, 10:46:23 AM »


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Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.


I read somewhere (Marianne, I think), that, in the light of both disasters both the PS and LR are basically going to try and ignore their presidential candidates for the legislatives. Seems like LR will try and rally around Baroin; and PS are hoping that either Cazeneuve orJean-Christophe Cambadélis will lead the charge.

So I would imagine it is pretty certain that both parties are going to hold it mostly together for the legislatives at least.

EELV and PRG are basically irrelevant as entities outside of the PS, but it's hard to imagine Taubira jumping on the Macron wagon
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Zinneke
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« Reply #689 on: April 24, 2017, 10:56:01 AM »


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Any faction that is led by Mélenchon will not cooperate with the PS. The FdG originally broke up because of this. I think the fact that Hamon, who used to frequent the same PS wing as Mélenchon, ony managed to talk about a united front for two days says as much. Also, Mélenchon has realised his key error in 2012 was the assumption he was a PS sattelite the same way the old PCF became.


I read somewhere (Marianne, I think), that, in the light of both disasters both the PS and LR are basically going to try and ignore their presidential candidates for the legislatives. Seems like LR will try and rally around Baroin; and PS are hoping that either Cazeneuve orJean-Christophe Cambadélis will lead the charge.

So I would imagine it is pretty certain that both parties are going to hold it mostly together for the legislatives at least.

EELV and PRG are basically irrelevant as entities outside of the PS, but it's hard to imagine Taubira jumping on the Macron wagon

Taubira is PS. Made the same mistake of thinking she was still PRG.

But I agree with the first part. Basically what I meant to say is that it will probably be left-wing defections to Mélenchon...although Valls seemed pretty pessimistic about the PS in the papers today too. The PS i in way more danger than LR, all things considered.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #690 on: April 24, 2017, 11:04:43 AM »

Final result

Macron: 8,657,326 - 24.01%
Le Pen: 7,679,493 - 21.30%
Fillon: 7,213,797 - 20.01%
Mélenchon: 7,060,885 - 19.58%
Hamon: 2,291,565 - 6.36%
Dupont-Aignan: 1,695,186 - 4.70%
Lassalle: 435,365 - 1.21%
Poutou: 394,582 - 1.09%
Asselineau: 332,588 - 0.92%
Arthaud: 232,428 - 0.64%
Cheminade: 65,598 - 0.18%

Turnout: 77.77%
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Mike88
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« Reply #691 on: April 24, 2017, 11:06:04 AM »

100% counted:

24.01% Macron

21.30% Le Pen
20.01% Fillon
19.58% Mélenchon
  6.36% Hamon
  3.56% NDA
  1.21% Lassalle
  1.09% Poutou
  0.92% Asselineau
  0.64% Arthaud
  0.18% Cheminade
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #692 on: April 24, 2017, 11:10:59 AM »

As far as I can tell, only one poll ever had Le Pen below 21.5%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #693 on: April 24, 2017, 11:13:34 AM »

Ifop Daily Poll: Macron Seen Beating Le Pen 60%-40% in 2nd Round
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #694 on: April 24, 2017, 11:14:15 AM »

As far as I can tell, only one poll ever had Le Pen below 21.5%.
Polls were expecting a lower turnout.
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VPH
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« Reply #695 on: April 24, 2017, 11:35:34 AM »

Why did Le Pen almost win a lot of the overseas territories?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #696 on: April 24, 2017, 11:38:38 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 11:59:19 AM by Tintrlvr »

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Well, LR managed to reach 20% with one of the worst possible candidates. Lower turnout could really help them too.
We need to see how many Macron voters want a centre-right government. That would indicate they were just pissed with Fillon.

Got to be relatively few considering the lion's share of Macron voters voted for HamonHollande or Bayrou in 2012. Sarkozy -> Macron voters are only about 3% of all voters according to the transfers analysis.

Edit: Brain fart.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #697 on: April 24, 2017, 11:48:57 AM »

   If NDA hadn't run, where would his voters have gone? Some to Fillon, some abstention, some to Le Pen and some to Macron, but any change to overall outcome? Could Fillon have overtaken Le Pen?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #698 on: April 24, 2017, 11:52:30 AM »

In Chile the result was:

Macron 1270
Fillon 981
Melanchon 808
Hamon 222
Le Pen 251

Source: https://twitter.com/mechitasdeclavo

Hamon got less votes than  Le Pen, Sad
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #699 on: April 24, 2017, 11:55:58 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 11:58:22 AM by Parrotguy »

  If NDA hadn't run, where would his voters have gone? Some to Fillon, some abstention, some to Le Pen and some to Macron, but any change to overall outcome? Could Fillon have overtaken Le Pen?
If he did run and dropped out to endorse Fillon, maybe. If he just didn't run though, i think Fillon wouldn't get enough voters from it.

Also, gotta say... The Green candidate who dropped out and endorsed Hamon must be really, really, really regretting it.
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