France 2017: Results Thread

[jaichind]

100% counted:

24.01% Macron
21.30% Le Pen
20.01% Fillon
19.58% Mélenchon
  6.36% Hamon
  3.56% NDA
  1.21% Lassalle
  1.09% Poutou
  0.92% Asselineau
  0.64% Arthaud
  0.18% Cheminade

Well, at least Fillon could claim he cross 20%

[jaichind]

Macron Seen Having Poor Start to 2nd-Round Campaign: Harris Poll

(Bloomberg) -- French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron failed to successfully start his campaign for the second round of elections, according to a majority of French voters surveyed in a poll by Harris Interactive.
52% of those polled considered that Macron failed in the start of his campaign
61% considered that National Front candidate Marine Le Pen had a successful start to her second-round campaign
Of those polled, 43% consider that Macron was wrong to celebrate his 1st-round victory at Paris restaurant La Rotonde, 35% have no opinion, 22% consider he was right to celebrate.

[jaichind]

It seems like the candidates outside the top 5 go 8.74% of the vote.  This is very surprising. I would figure given a near 4 way tie for first two spots there would be significant tactical voting.  Dupont-Aignan vote share is shocking and much to the loss of Le Pen and Fillon.

[jaichind]

There's a greater age difference between Macron and his wife than Trump and his wife.

If what took place between Marcron and his teacher and now wife took place in some parts of USA and the gender reversed I could see how the teacher could end up being fired or perhaps even in legal trouble.

[jaichind]

The old SFIO* did just as badly in 1968 prophesying its electoral implosion in '69.  However, the PS scored an abysmally similar result in 1993 and confounded conventional wisdom by coming first in the first round of 1995. The French left has collapsed and reformed many times before and we don't really know how that will play out this time around.

*Which was actually running in Mitterand's FGDS coalition.

Yes, but reading details of the poll, out of 535 seats they have on the second round

Elected on first round         1
Right vs FN                    154
Left vs FN                      6-32
FN vs Right vs EM            32
EM vs Left                       46
EM vs Right                   180
EM vs FN                     90-116

It seems FN will be in the second round in 308 seats
              Right will be in the second round in 366 seats
              EM will be in the second round in 348-374 seats
              Left will be in the second round in 52-78 seats

Left is not relevant in a vast majority of seats.  So unless EM starts to implode quickly the center-Left space might be occupied by EM eventually leaving the Left as a fringe force.

[jaichind]

jaichind is nowhere to be seen.

Did not realized I was so needed or missed.  I was dragged by my DW on a shopping spree this morning after our DS's Chinese classes.  Just got home and eating lunch and trying to following the results as I eat.

[jaichind]

Any reporting on what % of the ballots are "Spoilt and null votes"?

[jaichind]

Looking at the breakdown by age it seems that  Macron's larger than expected victory came from LR voters coming out to vote  Macron.  If so that bodes well for LR in the legislative elections and bode poorly for FN in the second round of elections even if I am sure FN will get an unprecedented level of support in the first round. 

[jaichind]

Looks like all the votes outstanding are Paris and areas around Paris.  I guess how badly Le Pen does in them will determine if she crosses 35% or not.  This is surprising for me.  I thought that threshold would be something like 40%.

[jaichind]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

[jaichind]

It seems that there is positive correlation between increase in abstention and first round combined Fillon/Melenchon vote.



But going against conventional wisdom there is negative correlation between first round combined Melenchon/Fillon vote and blank/invalid in the second round.

[jaichind]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.

It seems that in each seat it will be REM vs LR-UDI vs FN vs PG/FI vs PS-EELV vs DLF vs PCF

I thought that FN and DLF was going to have an alliance.  I guess not.  There might be some sort of possible alliance between PCF and PG/FI but that seems unlikely.