2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread

[Tirnam]

The campaign will end tonight at midnight, the vote will start in around 48 hours in Metropolitan France.

I propose to you to post your prediction for the first round here.

[Tirnam]

E. Macron: 24.8%
M. Le Pen: 23.6%
F. Fillon: 19.8%
J-L. Mélenchon: 16.8%
B. Hamon: 6.7%
N. Dupont-Aignan: 3.9%
P. Poutou: 1.5%
J. Lassalle: 1.0%
F. Asselineau: 0.9%
N. Arthaud: 0.8%
J. Cheminade: 0.2%

Turnout: 81%

[parochial boy]

E. Macron: 23.8%
M. Le Pen: 23.1%
F. Fillon: 20.3%
J-L. Mélenchon: 17.5%
B. Hamon: 7.5%
N. Dupont-Aignan: 3.4%
P. Poutou: 1.7%
J. Lassalle: 1.2%
F. Asselineau: 0.9%
N. Arthaud: 0.4%
J. Cheminade: 0.2%

And an appalling paint job of a map, because why not?

[peterthlee]

WILD GUESS:
Macron 28 (+5) ✓
Le Pen 23 ✓
Melenchon 19 X
Fillon 17 X
Hamon 11 X
Minor candidates 2 X

Turnout: 77%

[JA]

24.2% - Le Pen
24.1% - Macron
18.8% - Mélenchon
18.5% - Fillon
07.4% - Hamon
07.0% - Others

[Bumaye]

Macron: 24,5% 
Le Pen: 23,9% 
Fillon: 19,2% 
Mélenchon: 17,7% 
Hamon: 7,2% 
Dupont-Aigner: 3,4% 
Others: 4,2% 
 
Turnout: 74% 

[jaichind]

Le Pen:             23
Fillon:               22.5
Macron:            22   
Mélenchon:       19.5 
Hamon:             7
Dupont-Aigner:  2.5 
Others:              3.5

[TheSaint250]

Le Pen: 26%
Macron: 24%
Fillon: 19%
Mélenchon: 18%
Hamon: 7%

[Tender Branson]

Regional prediction map (some will be close):



Blue = Le Pen
Yellow = Macron

Green dots indicate battleground regions (candidates will be within a couple %).

Fillon and Melenchon are winning no region, but Melenchon has a chance at IdF, Normandy and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, while Fillon maybe wins IdF, Pays de la Loire or Nouvelle-Aquitaine.

I have no clue how Corsica votes, but probably not for Le Pen and Fillon.

[Vosem]

23.3 Macron
20.9 Fillon
20.8 Le Pen
20.3 Melenchon
6.4 Hamon
4.0 Dupont-Aignan
1.6 Poutou
1.2 Lassalle
1.0 Asselineau
0.4 Arthaud
0.1 Cheminade

[I Won - Get Over It]

24.0 Le Pen ✓
22.9 Fillon ✓
22.3 Macron
19.0 Melenchon

[kyc0705]

Marine Le Pen: 24.5%
Emmanuel Macron: 21%
François Fillon: 18.5%
Jean-Luc Melenchon: 17%
Benoit Hamon: 7%
Others:  12%

[SunSt0rm]

Macron 23.7%
Le Pen 23.1%
Fillon 21.9%
Melenchon 17.6%
Hamon 6.8%
Dupont-Aignan 3.2%
Poutou 1.3%
Lassalle 1.0%
Asselineau 0.7%
Arthaud 0.5%
Cheminade 0.2%

[windjammer]

Fillon/Le Pen

[Devout Centrist]

Going to be BOLD:

Macron 25.2%
Fillon 22.9%
Le Pen 20.8%
Melenchon 19.6%
Hamon 6.8%
Dupont-Aignan 2.0%
Poutou 1.0%
Lassalle 0.8%
Asselineau 0.4%
Arthaud 0.3%
Cheminade 0.2%

[Former President tack50]

Macron: 25%
Le Pen: 22%
Melenchon: 20%
Fillon: 18%
Hamon: 8%

[Donerail]

As no one's predicted this runoff yet:

Le Pen: 23.1%
Mélenchon: 21.5%
Macron: 21.4%
Fillon: 19.8%
Hamon: 6.4%
Dupont-Aignan: 3.4%
Poutou: 1.7%
Lassalle: 1.2%
Asselineau: 0.8%
Arthaud: 0.5%
Cheminade: 0.2%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Le Pen: 23.1%
Mélenchon: 21.5%

What a nightmare.

[Velasco]

Le Pen: 24%
Macron: 23%
Fillon: 21%
Mélenchon: 17%
Hamon: 7.5%
Dupont-Aignan: 3.5%
Others: 4%

[Tintrlvr]

No one has gone with the "Le Pen is overpolled" scenario yet, so:

E. Macron: 23.9%
F. Fillon: 21.6%
J-L. Mélenchon: 20.4%
M. Le Pen: 19.9%
B. Hamon: 5.8%
N. Dupont-Aignan: 4.0%
P. Poutou: 1.6%
J. Lassalle: 1.1%
F. Asselineau: 0.9%
N. Arthaud: 0.6%
J. Cheminade: 0.2%

[brucejoel99]

Macron 24.48%
Le Pen 23.43%
Fillon 21.75%
Mélenchon 15.72%
Hamon 6.38%
Others 8.24%

[the506]

I'm thinking worst case scenario.

Le Pen: 25
Fillon: 23
Macron: 22
Melenchon: 18
Hamon: 7

[Donerail]

Le Pen: 23.1%
Mélenchon: 21.5%

What a nightmare.

Windjammer's predicting Le Pen/Fillon and this one's the nightmare?

[Diouf]

Le Pen: 27%
Fillon: 21%
Macron: 21%
Mélenchon: 18%
Hamon: 7%
Dupont-Aignan: 2 %
Others: 4%

[mvd10]

Le Pen 24.1%
Fillon 22.3%
Macron 22.2%
Mélenchon 17.8%
Hamon 7.5%
Dupont-Aignan 2.7%
Lasalle 1.2%
Poutou 1.1%
Asselineau 0.7%
Arthaud 0.3%
Cheminade 0.1%

Lifelong conservative voters who decide they don't care about corruption after all will save Fillon in the end.

Anyway, it might not be Fillon vs Le Pen but I do expect an upset (basically everything that isn't Macron vs Le Pen). The herding theory from fivethirtyeight makes sense.