2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow Ryan Costello told Pa Reps he's unsure if he'll run this November https://mobile.twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/974062763818528770

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow Ryan Costello told Pa Reps he's unsure if he'll run this November https://mobile.twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/974062763818528770

If he doesn't run is there another Republican already running in his district or will Democrats pick up this seat without opposition?

[Oryxslayer]

Wow Ryan Costello told Pa Reps he's unsure if he'll run this November https://mobile.twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/974062763818528770

C+8, D+2 PVI, backed dems 3 times in a row (albeit Obama won twice right of the nation), oh and he is facing one of those well funded female vets the DCCC loves this cycle.

[Gass3268]

Crystal Ball Made Some Adjustments:

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.

We running anyone there at all?

No one remotely credible.

OH-16 might have been in play if we had recruited someone strong from the get-go, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance we beat Gonzalez. If Hagan wins the primary, then we're cooking, but IDK who would be a good nominee up there.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.

We running anyone there at all?

No one remotely credible.

OH-16 might have been in play if we had recruited someone strong from the get-go, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance we beat Gonzalez. If Hagan wins the primary, then we're cooking, but IDK who would be a good nominee up there.

Nicholas Celebrezze

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

[morgieb]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

IL-12 at least has a killer one imo

[Ebsy]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

IL-12 at least has a killer one imo

Brendan Kelly, State's Attorney for St. Clair County, is about a solid recruit as we could hope for minus Costello coming back for another stint in Congress (ha). He has name recognition and experience running in St. Clair, which takes in a swath of suburbs of St. Louis, centered on the extremely suburban Belleville, and comprises 43%+ of the district (higher when black turnout is up in East St. Louis). The next biggest chunk is Madison County (about 17% of the district) to the North, which takes in more St. Louis suburbs including Granite City, a major steel town, and Alton, another rustbelt industrial center. Running up margins here while keeping things competitive in the rest of the district, especially the extreme southern counties around Cairo is the path to victory for a Democrat in the 12th. Bost is in very serious trouble, though I doubt he realizes it.

[Ebsy]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

IL-12 at least has a killer one imo

Brendan Kelly, State's Attorney for St. Clair County, is about a solid recruit as we could hope for minus Costello coming back for another stint in Congress (ha). He has name recognition and experience running in St. Clair, which takes in a swath of suburbs of St. Louis, centered on the extremely suburban Belleville, and comprises 43%+ of the district (higher when black turnout is up in East St. Louis). The next biggest chunk is Madison County (about 17% of the district) to the North, which takes in more St. Louis suburbs including Granite City, a major steel town, and Alton, another rustbelt industrial center. Running up margins here while keeping things competitive in the rest of the district, especially the extreme southern counties around Cairo is the path to victory for a Democrat in the 12th. Bost is in very serious trouble, though I doubt he realizes it.

From the looks of him being consistently outraised by Kelly, I don't think he realizes it either. He should have realized it the moment someone pointed out that Tammy Duckworth crushed Mark Kirk here.

Looking at the district closely, IL-12 is remarkably similar to parts of the Pittsburgh suburbs, other than having a significant urban black population near the riverfront in St. Clair county (East St. Louis, Centreville, Washington Park, Venice). Edwardsville in Madison County is not in the district, nor is Collinsville. Carbondale and Murphysboro are hardly Republican bastions, and Carbondale has a major public university. The challenge will be stitching together a congressional campaign in the far flung reaches of this district, but the massive mobilization in the governor's race is going to ensure that there is a lot political engagement.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow Ryan Costello told Pa Reps he's unsure if he'll run this November https://mobile.twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/974062763818528770

If he doesn't run is there another Republican already running in his district or will Democrats pick up this seat without opposition?

There's still some Republicans on the local level in Chester, but after the November 2017 wipeout  of the row officers up for election there, it doesn't really inspire much confidence in GOP ability to keep the seat.

What I meant was if another Republican besides Costello has filed to run or if he was the only one and dropping out so late might result in Democrats running unopposed.

[136or142]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

[Oryxslayer]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'd blame the Huertas, tbh.  Emilio Huerta ran a virtually non-existant campaign only to drop out right before the filing deadline and his mother (a locally prominent activist with considerable pull within certain Hispanic Democratic political circles in the area) was apparently going around telling potential candidates that if anyone challenged her son in the primary then she'd actively work to make sure Hispanics in the district stayed home on election day.

[136or142]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate. 

He has a number of skeletons in his closet (https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/08/tj-cox-congress-david-valadao-central-valley/).  I don't think Cox will win, but there's a small chance that he wins simply due to the size of the wave.  Speaking of recruiting fumbles, we really need to find a better candidate to run against Katko.  I know we probably won't because one of the some dudes running has the county party endorsements, but this seems like a wasted opportunity (then again, the wave could save us here too).  I don't think Tom Reed's district is quite as big a fumble, but I do wish we had a stronger candidate running here since the combination of depressed Republican turnout and absolutely insane Democratic turnout in Ithaca County could definitely be enough to pull off an upset here in a wave election (a decidedly meh candidate nearly unseated Reed this way in 2012 IIRC).

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/973928664688746497

*creams pants*

I’ve been saying Renacci’s seat was a big missed opportunity.

We running anyone there at all?

No one remotely credible.

OH-16 might have been in play if we had recruited someone strong from the get-go, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance we beat Gonzalez. If Hagan wins the primary, then we're cooking, but IDK who would be a good nominee up there.

Nicholas Celebrezze

I guess Celebrezze would have been fine enough as wave insurance, but I’m really down on any Democrat beating Gonzalez.

[Atlas Force]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kkondik/status/974285344786051072

[Landslide Lyndon]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate.  

He has a number of skeletons in his closet (https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/08/tj-cox-congress-david-valadao-central-valley/).  I don't think Cox will win, but there's a small chance that he wins simply due to the size of the wave.  Speaking of recruiting fumbles, we really need to find a better candidate to run against Katko.  I know we probably won't because one of the some dudes running has the county party endorsements, but this seems like a wasted opportunity (then again, the wave could save us here too).  I don't think Tom Reed's district is quite as big a fumble, but I do wish we had a stronger candidate running here since the combination of depressed Republican turnout and absolutely insane Democratic turnout in Ithaca County could definitely be enough to pull off an upset here in a wave election (a decidedly meh candidate nearly unseated Reed this way in 2012 IIRC).

There will almost certainly be some seats where the wave will wash ashore mediocre candidates.
That's how we got Allen West and Joe Walsh in 2010, and IIRC, none of this year's Democrats are so glaringly flawed as these nutjobs.

[136or142]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate.  

He has a number of skeletons in his closet (https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/08/tj-cox-congress-david-valadao-central-valley/).  I don't think Cox will win, but there's a small chance that he wins simply due to the size of the wave.  Speaking of recruiting fumbles, we really need to find a better candidate to run against Katko.  I know we probably won't because one of the some dudes running has the county party endorsements, but this seems like a wasted opportunity (then again, the wave could save us here too).  I don't think Tom Reed's district is quite as big a fumble, but I do wish we had a stronger candidate running here since the combination of depressed Republican turnout and absolutely insane Democratic turnout in Ithaca County could definitely be enough to pull off an upset here in a wave election (a decidedly meh candidate nearly unseated Reed this way in 2012 IIRC).

There will almost certainly be some seats where the wave will wash ashore mediocre candidates.
That's how we got Allen West and Joe Walsh in 2010, and IIRC, none of this year's Democrats are so glaringly flawed as these nutjobs.

There are some Republicans who won't vote for anybody except a nutjob though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

I'm not sure that T.J Cox is that bad of a candidate.  

He has a number of skeletons in his closet (https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/08/tj-cox-congress-david-valadao-central-valley/).  I don't think Cox will win, but there's a small chance that he wins simply due to the size of the wave.  Speaking of recruiting fumbles, we really need to find a better candidate to run against Katko.  I know we probably won't because one of the some dudes running has the county party endorsements, but this seems like a wasted opportunity (then again, the wave could save us here too).  I don't think Tom Reed's district is quite as big a fumble, but I do wish we had a stronger candidate running here since the combination of depressed Republican turnout and absolutely insane Democratic turnout in Ithaca County could definitely be enough to pull off an upset here in a wave election (a decidedly meh candidate nearly unseated Reed this way in 2012 IIRC).

There will almost certainly be some seats where the wave will wash ashore mediocre candidates.
That's how we got Allen West and Joe Walsh in 2010, and IIRC, none of this year's Democrats are so glaringly flawed as these nutjobs.

There are some Republicans who won't vote for anybody except a nutjob though.

I think it had/has more to do with the fact that many House candidates fly under the radar due to the sheer number of races and get votes only because they have the "right" letter next to their names.
OTOH, statewide candidates like Angle, O' Donnell and Mourdock can't do that and inevitably they get creamed.

[Hollywood756]

I'm going to try to amuse you all.

I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.

I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.

The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.

[Littlefinger]

NJ07: Linda Weber to drop out after failing to get the Union County party line, essentially clearing the path for Tom Malinowski to take on "moderate" Rep. Lance.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/03/another_democrat_leaves_race_to_take_on_republican.html

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm going to try to amuse you all.

I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.

I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.

The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.

R+32? No way. Not unless Hogers is the next Bob Ney. Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him running in WV-03 and it's "only" R+23.

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ07: Linda Weber to drop out after failing to get the Union County party line, essentially clearing the path for Tom Malinowski to take on "moderate" Rep. Lance.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/03/another_democrat_leaves_race_to_take_on_republican.html

Malinowski should win this easily, especially if Lance retires. Trump is deeply unpopular here.