2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[super6646]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

I'm confused - Winning by 8-9 points as opposed to a tsunami of 11 - 13 points is not a wave? This is another example of shifting goalposts. Democrats were in wave territory before December, but now that everyone got excited about double digit polls, anything less than that is suddenly a "collapse" and uncertain of a wave?

Sheesh. Come on LimoLiberal.

If the election were to be held today and the average gcb poll was correct, it would be a democratic wave. I'm pointing out that the trend is not in Democrat's favor, with both Donald Trump's approval rating rising and their generic ballot advantage eroding. So a wave would happen today, but if trends keep going like they already are, it would not be so giant come November.

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example). Baring something catastrophic for the GOP, I doubt the democrats will be having a 20 point win.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Even as Democrats celebrate special elections in the Midwest, they're generic ballot advantage continues to to collapse. Only 1 of the last 11 generic ballot polls have Ds up +10 or more, a far cry from mid-December where polls showed them consistently in the +10-15 range. Coupled with Donald Trump's rising approval rating, confident predictions of a blue wave should not be as certain.

I'm confused - Winning by 8-9 points as opposed to a tsunami of 11 - 13 points is not a wave? This is another example of shifting goalposts. Democrats were in wave territory before December, but now that everyone got excited about double digit polls, anything less than that is suddenly a "collapse" and uncertain of a wave?

Sheesh. Come on LimoLiberal.

If the election were to be held today and the average gcb poll was correct, it would be a democratic wave. I'm pointing out that the trend is not in Democrat's favor, with both Donald Trump's approval rating rising and their generic ballot advantage eroding. So a wave would happen today, but if trends keep going like they already are, it would not be so giant come November.

Trump's approval ratings are still in the same range of uppers 30's they normally are you keep saying is rising because you just cite Rasumessen every day which is a right leaning poll and the one nicest to him

[Landslide Lyndon]

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example).

No.

[Brittain33]

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example).

No.

Hasn't it, though, at least for Democrats? I seem to remember gaudy Democratic margins that get trimmed as some Republicans come home in the end.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example).

No.

Hasn't it, though, at least for Democrats? I seem to remember gaudy Democratic margins that get trimmed as some Republicans come home in the end.

They underperform some times but that's different from saying that the GCB tightens as we come closer to election day.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The generic advantage tends to go down as election day comes closer and closer (2006 as an example).

No.

Hasn't it, though, at least for Democrats? I seem to remember gaudy Democratic margins that get trimmed as some Republicans come home in the end.

Sometimes, but not always.  However, even then the playing field often expands significantly in the House the closer we get to the election in wave years.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From what we are seeing all across the country as special election results are being reported, I think the Democrats are going to significantly outperform the polls.

[Brittain33]

1. There's some evidence that polls are tightening a little bit now from just before the tax bill passing. There's also a lot of noise.

2. It still looks like Republicans are in for a historic whalloping this fall.

[Young Conservative]

1. There's some evidence that polls are tightening a little bit now from just before the tax bill passing. There's also a lot of noise.

2. It still looks like Republicans are in for a historic whalloping this fall.

[KingSweden]

1. There's some evidence that polls are tightening a little bit now from just before the tax bill passing. There's also a lot of noise.

2. It still looks like Republicans are in for a historic whalloping this fall.

[Mike Thick]

Friendly reminder that Democrats need to win the generic ballot by upper single digits to even think about flipping the House. 8-9 points is good, but dangerously close to the threshold most analysts are using

[Mike Thick]

Friendly reminder that Democrats need to win the generic ballot by upper single digits to even think about flipping the House. 8-9 points is good, but dangerously close to the threshold most analysts are using

Harry Enten and Dave Wasserman think there's a very good chance it could be as low a threshold as 4-5.

That’s good. G. Elliott Morris is using a threshold of 8ish, though, IIRC

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Friendly reminder that Democrats need to win the generic ballot by upper single digits to even think about flipping the House. 8-9 points is good, but dangerously close to the threshold most analysts are using

Harry Enten and Dave Wasserman think there's a very good chance it could be as low a threshold as 4-5.

I think it's Abramowitz who thinks it could be this low. The other two believe it will be a bit higher (7-8).

[LimoLiberal]

Has anyone offered any explanation as to why Trump's approvals have surged so much in the past few weeks? And the generic ballot surge for Republicans?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc.

All I am saying - all - is that if the generic ballot is D+4.5 the Democrats will likely not win the House and there will not be a massive wave. Obviously the fundraising, retirements, etc. correlate more with the high Democratic generic ballot leads.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

Just because a pollster is R friendly doesn't mean one should ignore its trends over time. MC was 41-55 Dec 14-18. Now its 45-50. Big shift.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc.

All I am saying - all - is that if the generic ballot is D+4.5 the Democrats will likely not win the House and there will not be a massive wave. Obviously the fundraising, retirements, etc. correlate more with the high Democratic generic ballot leads.

YouGov and Morning Consult aren't the most reliable. Morning Consult has always been R friendly and under-polled the Democrats and over-polled Republicans and Trump's approval rating. The pollsters that are driving up Trump's approval rating are, according to FiveThirtyEight, Mclaughlin, Zogby, and Rasmussen... all pretty trashy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

Just because a pollster is R friendly doesn't mean one should ignore its trends over time. MC was 41-55 Dec 14-18. Now its 45-50. Big shift.

And Quinnipac showed the Democrats expanding their lead to 17 points.

[Devout Centrist]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

You are the single worst psephologist on this site.

[Pericles]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/17/16899932/special-elections-2018-results

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I also want to mention that Ispos, another pollster that is driving down the Democrat average, has voters trusting the GOP on foreign policy more than the Democrats in their crosstabs. That is complete horse sh**t.

[Pericles]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats still lead by 11 points in the RCP average and 7.9% in 538. Their TAX REFORM BUMP is fading slightly and Trump got a holiday bump(plus Gallup's tracking poll being gone skewed the average) but Democrats are still in a great position to win in the midterms, as shown by the fundamentals, polls and actual results so far.

False. Both Trump's approval rating and Republican's standing in the generic ballot has not stopped going up. There is no sign of "fading".