2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

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What do these two years have in common?

Both were very bad for Democrats. Many of whom expected only moderate losses in 2010, and even small gains in 2014. It's enough to read what was written on DKE, for example, immediately before these two election nights. Most of site  "gurus" expectations were precisely as i described above. And then, after bleak results -  usual "f**k this night!", "dumb voters", and so on...

[Pericles]

Democrats outperformed polls in 2011. And of course Virginia and Alabama.

[Pericles]

And often polling errors are the opposite to the expected polling error-Corbyn was supposedly overestimated by the polls, but was in fact underestimated, and people thought there'd be a pro-Clinton polling error.

[smoltchanov]

Democrats outperformed polls in 2011. And of course Virginia and Alabama.

In odd years - yes. In midterms - the last time it was  (may be) in 2006, during Iraq war. If Trump begins a war (especially - with weak chances for rapid victory) - then sure. If not - not so sure.

[Hindsight was 2020]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What do these two years have in common?

Both were very bad for Democrats. Many of whom expected only moderate losses in 2010, and even small gains in 2014. It's enough to read what was written on DKE, for example, immediately before these two election nights. Most of site  "gurus" expectations were precisely as i described above. And then, after bleak results -  usual "f**k this night!", "dumb voters", and so on...

You missed his point, Obama was in the WH during those two years and the last time the dems did well in a midterm was when Bush was in the WH. The point being midterms are bad for the party in the WH which is rep right now

[Pericles]

Bush had an approval rating in the high 30s approval rating prior to the 2006 midterms(http://news.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx). Trump's current approval rating is basically at a similar level in the high 30s right now(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#!) And Presidents tend to get less popular in their second year, not more.

[smoltchanov]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What do these two years have in common?

Both were very bad for Democrats. Many of whom expected only moderate losses in 2010, and even small gains in 2014. It's enough to read what was written on DKE, for example, immediately before these two election nights. Most of site  "gurus" expectations were precisely as i described above. And then, after bleak results -  usual "f**k this night!", "dumb voters", and so on...

You missed his point, Obama was in the WH during those two years and the last time the dems did well in a midterm was when Bush was in the WH. The point being midterms are bad for the party in the WH which is rep right now

I know all that. Without Trump Democrats wouldn't have any chances, and could expect monumental losses in Senate. So, Trump is a "Democratic blessing" to some extent. And still, for example, minority turnout usually falls substantially in midterms, and it's this turnout which became so important for Democrats in the last decade, that one can speak about some sort of "addiction". Without it Democrats have no chances at all in most elections.

[Pericles]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

[smoltchanov]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

[Pericles]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

Most Republicans wouldn't have won by around 30 points like Trump did, so even if they won by 20 or 15 points in a normal race that's still a 10-15 swing against them and would indicate a pro-Democrat environment.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

And Democrats didn't have Martha Coakley in every state in 2010.

[smoltchanov]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

And Democrats didn't have Martha Coakley in every state in 2010.

Coakley is simply bad politician. That happens. Moore is absolutely unique.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump's base also may be less likely to turn out though(and minorities turned out in Alabama).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

May be. But i don't think that Alabama is good example. Republicans will NOT have Roy Moore in every state. Most likely - they will not have even one "Roy Moore" among their candidates. He is unique. Only he could lose a Senate seat in Alabama for Republicans. Mad dog with "R" after name could win it.

And Democrats didn't have Martha Coakley in every state in 2010.

Coakley is simply bad politician. That happens. Moore is absolutely unique.

They also had Ed Gillespie in Virginia and he suffered the biggest Republican loss in 30 years.

[Brittain33]

Coakley is simply bad politician. That happens. Moore is absolutely unique.

Republicans have the biggest Roy Moore of them all at the top of their ticket, even if he's not literally on the ballot.

[smoltchanov]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Who forces you to read my posts? Ignore lists exist. BTW,  i would be only glad if you would know as much about Russian politics as i know about American. As long as this is NOT "the site for Americans only", blocking other based on their geographic location - i am free to express my opinions, and agree or disagree with other's arguments. As i mentioned sometimes - my friend, who is University professor in North Carolina, was of very high opinion about my knowledge))))). And my American relatives still ask my opinion before going to vote))))

[smoltchanov]

Coakley is simply bad politician. That happens. Moore is absolutely unique.

Republicans have the biggest Roy Moore of them all at the top of their ticket, even if he's not literally on the ballot.

We will see. IF he will be as bad as Roy Moore was (so far - close, but - not yet), and IF Democrats will be able to nationalize all races - then, may be...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Coakley is simply bad politician. That happens. Moore is absolutely unique.

Republicans have the biggest Roy Moore of them all at the top of their ticket, even if he's not literally on the ballot.

We will see. IF he will be as bad as Roy Moore was (so far - close, but - not yet), and IF Democrats will be able to nationalize all races - then, may be...

There is no if. After 2006 all midterms have been nationalized.
It's the norm in the era of internet.

[junior chįmp]

All of the congressional generic ballot polling data per The Roper Center going back to 1963:



Obvious Blue Wave is obvious

[Jeppe]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Yes, I have on my ignore list. He says some pretty awful stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s being paid to troll online on sites like this.

[Doimper]

All of the congressional generic ballot polling data per The Roper Center going back to 1963:



Obvious Blue Wave is obvious

Jesus, that post-Watergate reach to 70.

[smoltchanov]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Yes, I have on my ignore list. He says some pretty awful stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s being paid to troll online on sites like this.

You judge by yourself. Alas, i am not paid even a cent. And i would only welcome being on ignore list of people like you. For me it's a badge of honor....

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Yes, I have on my ignore list. He says some pretty awful stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s being paid to troll online on sites like this.

You judge by yourself. Alas, i am not paid even a cent. And i would only welcome being on ignore list of people like you. For me it's a badge of honor....

I'll make your day, then.

[GoldenMainer]

CA45: Katie Porter raises over $266,000 in the 4th Quarter. Over $500,000 cash on hand.

https://twitter.com/CA45_voter/status/950390318330871808

[GeorgiaModerate]

WI-06: Dan Kohl raised $329K in Q4, ends the year with $600K cash on hand.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/glenn-grotherman-challenger-dan-kohl-reports-raising-329-000-fourth-quarter/1013957001/

[PragmaticPopulist]

VA-02: Former Navy Veteran Elaine Luria is now officially in. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/retired-navy-commander-to-take-on-former-seal-for-house-seat/2018/01/08/8eae68be-f4a9-11e7-9af7-a50bc3300042_story.html?utm_term=.fc43c381d51a