TX - Texas Lyceum: Castro +4, Cruz/O'Rourle Tied

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That poll is trash, Cruz will win Texas vs O'Rourke, it will probably be something along the lines of 55-42. I think that O'Rourke will slightly over perform the average democrat in the state, and Cruz will substantially underperform the average republican in the state. Just because of how sucky Cruz is, and O'Rourke is pretty good, I think those margins will be a little thinner than usual, but at the end of the day, it is Texas.

I agree Cruz would beat O'Rourke.  But, I think Castro has a real shot of pulling the big upset, given its an off year, Cruz not very popular, Trump's low approval, and Castro's potential to motivate latinos, millennials, & women's march voters in a low turnout election (28.5% turnout in last off-year Texas election).

Castro, hah! What a joke! I'm rofling right now! He is fully Hispanic, born and raised in Texas, and can barely speak Spanish, sad! He is also an ultra lib who won't work with the other side of the aisle. Neither he nor O'Rourke stand a chance, especially him, even against a windbag such as Ted Cruz. There is a reason he didn't get picked for VP on the 2016 ticket, instead someone who speaks Spanish was actually on the ticket...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great news

For nobody, anyone who believes this poll even has the credibility of an infant doing algebra, needs to get their head checked.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great news

For nobody, anyone who believes this poll even has the credibility of an infant doing algebra, needs to get their head checked.

It's too early to say what the wave will be, its not Oct 2018, but its, only once has one house flipped without the other in 2010, and the last 3 midterms, Obama and Dubya has lost Congressional control to the other party. History may repeat itself, since the House of Rep, Dems may make up ground.

While I partially agree with you, and hope that you are right, no blue wave will be strong enough to wash over Texas. Only thing that could eventually do it is slow and steady demographic change.