Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[This account no longer in use.]

Filing deadline has passed.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Filing deadline has passed.

If I was in the democratic party, I would work behind the scenes to get Sessions to run as an independent candidate, which I imagine is still possible, and then hope for a split in the GOP vote that allows whoever the dems nominate to win.

[The Other Castro]

Filing deadline has passed.

If I was in the democratic party, I would work behind the scenes to get Sessions to run as an independent candidate, which I imagine is still possible, and then hope for a split in the GOP vote that allows whoever the dems nominate to win.

Dems to Sessions: hey you should totally run you'd win
Sessions: oh really?
Dems: yeah do it trust me
Sessions: lol ok, I'm oblivious to your obvious ulterior motives

[MT Treasurer]

Filing deadline has passed.

If I was in the democratic party, I would work behind the scenes to get Sessions to run as an independent candidate, which I imagine is still possible, and then hope for a split in the GOP vote that allows whoever the dems nominate to win.

If you were the Democratic Party, the Republicans would have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

[Suburbia]

If A.G. Sessions resigns, is it too late for him to run for his seat again? He can be a Trump loyalist from the Senate.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Moore gets the nomination, this isn't gonna be an obvious hold for the GOP. They will be favored, but you never know with special election turnout. Democratic enthusiasm + Moore's toxicity could be just enough for the GOP to blow an election they should've won

[The Other Castro]

There was a straw poll at a candidate forum:

Mo Brooks - 101
Roy Moore - 74
Trip Pittman - 8
Randy Brinson - 6
Bryan Peeples - 5
Mary Maxwell - 3
Luther Strange - 3

Should be noted that this was in Brooks' hometown, and Strange didn't attend the forum.

http://www.al.com/news/huntsville/index.ssf/2017/07/mo_brooks_first_luther_strange.html

[heatcharger]

Also just saw this Mo Brooks internal:

Moore 31%
Strange 23%
Brooks 21%

[BuckeyeNut]

Also just saw this Mo Brooks internal:

Moore 31%
Strange 23%
Brooks 21%

Jesus.

[GlobeSoc]

A Moore vs Strange runoff would be a wrapped present sent directly to the Alabama dems with expedited shipping

[_]

Also just saw this Mo Brooks internal:

Moore 31%
Strange 23%
Brooks 21%

Oh dear god....

Moore would make it just Lean R.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I definitely want a Moore vs. Brooks runoff here, because I like them both a lot.

[BuckeyeNut]

Republicans aren't going to lose this race, but I could see Democrats coming within 7-10 points of winning if Strange is the nominee. Moore would also underperform, but I think he would win by 8-12 in the end. Brooks is the most electable Republican, he would win by 15-20 IMO.

Lean/Likely R with Strange or Moore, Likely/Safe R with Brooks.

Not that Strange isn't scandalous, but how would he underperform Moore?

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans aren't going to lose this race, but I could see Democrats coming within 7-10 points of winning if Strange is the nominee. Moore would also underperform, but I think he would win by 8-12 in the end. Brooks is the most electable Republican, he would win by 15-20 IMO.

Lean/Likely R with Strange or Moore, Likely/Safe R with Brooks.

Not that Strange isn't scandalous, but how would he underperform Moore?

Because Strange is the embodiment of the corrupt (Washington) establishment and we could see very depressed Republican turnout if he is the nominee. Trump has said far worse things than Roy Moore, and he won AL by 28 points. Moore would energize the GOP base more than Strange, and Democratic turnout will be high anyway because it's a special election.

[Heisenberg]

Republicans aren't going to lose this race, but I could see Democrats coming within 7-10 points of winning if Strange is the nominee. Moore would also underperform, but I think he would win by 8-12 in the end. Brooks is the most electable Republican, he would win by 15-20 IMO.

Lean/Likely R with Strange or Moore, Likely/Safe R with Brooks.

Not that Strange isn't scandalous, but how would he underperform Moore?

Because Strange is the embodiment of the corrupt (Washington) establishment and we could see very depressed Republican turnout if he is the nominee. Trump has said far worse things than Roy Moore, and he won AL by 28 points. Moore would energize the GOP base more than Strange, and Democratic turnout will be high anyway because it's a special election.

Not just the Washington establishment, but the Montgomery, AL establishment as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Not just the Washington establishment, but the Montgomery, AL establishment as well.

Yes, exactly. I think all the McConnell groups which are spending so much money on ads supporting Strange don't realize that they could be putting the seat in jeopardy. I'm sure the same "strategists" that think propping up Strange is a good idea are planning on sending Roy Blunt to campaign for him or something like that.

[Devout Centrist]

The Luther Burger vs. Mediocre Mo vs. Religious Radical Roy: Senate Race of the Century

[smoltchanov]

The Luther Burger vs. Mediocre Mo vs. Religious Radical Roy: Senate Race of the Century

Well, it's Alabama after all. As of late - one of the most conservative states of USA... With Deep Southern heritage and not enough Blacks (compared with Mississippi and Louisiana) it will be Republican stronghold for decades.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Doug Jones is such a strong and good candidate, it's hard to watch him in such an unfair race. If only this was in a more blue state.

[Skunk]

Mo Brooks put out an called 'Build the Wall' that's been trending bigly on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZ4VtwpxTms

LOL at the comments

...I thought Mo Brooks was supposed to be the most "sane" of the Republicans.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mo Brooks put out an called 'Build the Wall' that's been trending bigly on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZ4VtwpxTms

LOL at the comments

...I thought Mo Brooks was supposed to be the most "sane" of the Republicans.

Everything in comparison my friend...

[Badger]

When I see legit polls showing Moore with a good chance to win, not just make, the primary runoff, I'll get worked up. Until then, meh.

[windjammer]

When I see legit polls showing Moore with a good chance to win, not just make, the primary runoff, I'll get worked up. Until then, meh.

Well, we all know that republicans are going to win this anyway but I'm not particularly sure that Luther Strange would perform better than Moore, as he's literally a little snake establishment who has underperformed elections before (2006 Lt Governor), not a good fit for Alabama considering its Trumpist nature and the recent corruption scandals.

The best candidate of the 3 is definitely Mo Brooks as he's a total racist scumbag having a platform forthe Trump wall and against "war on whites", he would definitely turn up the republican base, and turnout matters the most for special elections.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Senate Leadership Fund is out with an ad attacking Mo Brooks for being a traitor to Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxqIUOdc908

IDK if this really will damage him, but if it does, it could give Roy Moore an opening, where Brooks is too damaged and Strange is just too weak.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I thought Kay Ivey was smart, but she just gave Roy Moore an opening. If the senate race was held in 2018 I think the political climate would be different in Alabama.

You're probably right. If it were held in 2018, the Republican base might be less willing to choose an anti-establishment candidate. Right now, they just want to embarrass establishment Republicans by nominating the candidate the establishment hates the most, whether or not the candidate is electable.