The Future of VA-5

[SoLongAtlas]

Discussion about the future of VA-5. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia%27s_5th_congressional_district)

This district has gone from R+5 to R+6 (http://cookpolitical.com/file/Arranged_by_State_District.pdf) and is fairly stable but some people have projected that more growth in Charlottesville and to a certain extent retiring NY/NJ/NE transplants (personally have seen this trend) would make the district more liberal. Is VA-5 a rural, Republican district for the foreseeable future or does it go back to R+2 or 3 and eventually tossup?

[heatcharger]

The northern parts of this district are too exurban to be considered part of NOVA, and I'm pretty sure a lot of the growth happening in Fauquier County and further south is mostly white flight. Also, while Central VA isn't becoming more Republican at the same rate as Appalachia, it's not getting any better for Democrats. Charlottesville just doesn't cast enough vote to overcome the rest of the district.

I suppose the right kind of Democrat could make it competitive considering that Garrett isn't entrenched, but none have emerged as of now. I wish Perriello gave it another shot in 2018 instead of running for Governor.

[krazen1211]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The northern parts of this district are too exurban to be considered part of NOVA, and I'm pretty sure a lot of the growth happening in Fauquier County and further south is mostly white flight. Also, while Central VA isn't becoming more Republican at the same rate as Appalachia, it's not getting any better for Democrats. Charlottesville just doesn't cast enough vote to overcome the rest of the district.

I suppose the right kind of Democrat could make it competitive considering that Garrett isn't entrenched, but none have emerged as of now. I wish Perriello gave it another shot in 2018 instead of running for Governor.

I'd gladly trade keeping this seat in Republican hands for getting Perriello as VA Governor.

[SoLongAtlas]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

[windjammer]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

[SoLongAtlas]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

I doubt VA will have an ind commission by then. Right now they have a body that does the work sends it to the leg. Since the VA leg is Rep I doubt any real movement on a 100% independent commission will happen.

[heatcharger]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

I doubt VA will have an ind commission by then. Right now they have a body that does the work sends it to the leg. Since the VA leg is Rep I doubt any real movement on a 100% independent commission will happen.

It is quite possible the State Senate flips in 2019, potentially forcing fair maps with a Democratic governor.

[SoLongAtlas]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

I doubt VA will have an ind commission by then. Right now they have a body that does the work sends it to the leg. Since the VA leg is Rep I doubt any real movement on a 100% independent commission will happen.

It is quite possible the State Senate flips in 2019, potentially forcing fair maps with a Democratic governor.

I would love to see that again as a check on the HoD. Good chance.

[Figueira]

Is the HoD flipping out of the question?

[NeverAgain]

Is the HoD flipping out of the question?

Currently Republicans control 67 of the 100 seats in the HoD. So, pretty hard. Yet, not only were a majority of these seats carried by Hillary, 24 or so were within 15-20 points during 2015. So, I think there is a real shot of claiming at least a couple this time around, especially with Trump so unpopular (and his despisement among many Virginians).

[Nyvin]

Albemarle/Charlottesville won't ever be enough to carry a district.    Pretty much everything else in the area won't be moving to the Dems anytime soon.

[krazen1211]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

I doubt VA will have an ind commission by then. Right now they have a body that does the work sends it to the leg. Since the VA leg is Rep I doubt any real movement on a 100% independent commission will happen.

It is quite possible the State Senate flips in 2019, potentially forcing fair maps with a Democratic governor.

Orly?

The GOP can just wait until 2022 to perform Congressional redistricting.

[Nyvin]

The future involves Charlottesville being dumped into the 6th district.

I could see that to dilute it from an R+13 to maybe an R+5 or so. VA-5 would then be R+10 depending on the lines, maybe throwing Powhatan and a little of Chesterfield in VA-5? The next round of redistricting will be fun.

It is heavily likely no one will control redistricting next turn in VA

I doubt VA will have an ind commission by then. Right now they have a body that does the work sends it to the leg. Since the VA leg is Rep I doubt any real movement on a 100% independent commission will happen.

It is quite possible the State Senate flips in 2019, potentially forcing fair maps with a Democratic governor.

Orly?

The GOP can just wait until 2022 to perform Congressional redistricting.

The State Senate would be up for election in 2023.