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Canis
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« Reply #700 on: December 19, 2017, 07:28:48 PM »

What the map would like if all primary and caucus ballots were counted

Secretary Hillary Clinton 287ev 28.97%
Mr. Donald Trump 96evs 22.52%
Senator Bernie Sanders 83evs 22.75%
Senator Ted Cruz 54evs 12.88%
Governor John Kasich 18evs 7.02%
Senator Marco Rubio 0ev 5.83%
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« Reply #701 on: December 19, 2017, 07:46:51 PM »

What the map would like if all primary and caucus ballots were counted

Secretary Hillary Clinton 287ev 28.97%
Mr. Donald Trump 96evs 22.52%
Senator Bernie Sanders 83evs 22.75%
Senator Ted Cruz 54evs 12.88%
Governor John Kasich 18evs 7.02%
Senator Marco Rubio 0ev 5.83%

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262502.msg5722213#msg5722213

I also did 2008 and 2000 is subsequent posts.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #702 on: December 20, 2017, 05:48:17 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2017, 05:51:36 PM by MB »


Gov. Gary Holcomb (Populist-WV)/Rep. James Calderón (P-CO) – 285, 52.2%
Sen. Suzanne Everett (R-OK)/General Curtis Williams (R-VA) – 253, 43.4%
State Rep. Bobby Mancini (Center-NY)/Donald Rice (C-PA) – 0, 3.6%
Are they left-wing, right-wing, or centrist populists?
Economically left, socially center, and pro-gun. The Republicans are similar to En Marche in France and the Liberal Democrats in the UK. In this scenario some event happened and the pro-business Democrats merged with the Republicans while the New Deal Republicans merged with the Democrats to form the Populist Party. Goldwater and Reagan never happened. The Populists never really became a "coastal" party while the Republicans remained popular in the larger states. Both are fairly big-tent, though, and the socially conservative but fiscally left Southern Democrats (Populist) and Rockefeller Republicans still exist and are major forces.
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razze
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« Reply #703 on: December 20, 2017, 06:36:11 PM »


Gov. Gary Holcomb (Populist-WV)/Rep. James Calderón (P-CO) – 285, 52.2%
Sen. Suzanne Everett (R-OK)/General Curtis Williams (R-VA) – 253, 43.4%
State Rep. Bobby Mancini (Center-NY)/Donald Rice (C-PA) – 0, 3.6%
Are they left-wing, right-wing, or centrist populists?
Economically left, socially center, and pro-gun. The Republicans are similar to En Marche in France and the Liberal Democrats in the UK. In this scenario some event happened and the pro-business Democrats merged with the Republicans while the New Deal Republicans merged with the Democrats to form the Populist Party. Goldwater and Reagan never happened. The Populists never really became a "coastal" party while the Republicans remained popular in the larger states. Both are fairly big-tent, though, and the socially conservative but fiscally left Southern Democrats (Populist) and Rockefeller Republicans still exist and are major forces.
This is a really creative scenario! I wonder how all our modern politicians would identify in such a world, or how a right-wing nationalist/populist Trump-like movement would perform.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #704 on: December 21, 2017, 12:36:38 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 12:39:36 AM by MB »

Cascadian Independence Referendum, 2006

Yukon: 53.1% Yes
British Columbia: 58.2% Yes

Washington: 55.4% Yes
Oregon: 56.9% Yes
Idaho: 37.5% Yes

Alaska: 51.9% Yes

Edit: Meant to have Benton County, OR go green.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #705 on: December 25, 2017, 01:54:15 AM »

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« Reply #706 on: December 25, 2017, 09:30:31 AM »

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« Reply #707 on: December 25, 2017, 10:03:36 AM »

Cascadian Independence Referendum, 2006

Yukon: 53.1% Yes
British Columbia: 58.2% Yes

Washington: 55.4% Yes
Oregon: 56.9% Yes
Idaho: 37.5% Yes

Alaska: 51.9% Yes

Edit: Meant to have Benton County, OR go green.

Mm
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Solid4096
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« Reply #708 on: December 25, 2017, 08:05:57 PM »



Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #709 on: December 25, 2017, 09:20:40 PM »



Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.

Is this a narrow Clinton victory?
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« Reply #710 on: December 25, 2017, 09:32:45 PM »



Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.

Is this a narrow Clinton victory?
Looks like it to me.
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« Reply #711 on: December 25, 2017, 10:26:42 PM »



Clinton votes unchanged.

Trump/3rd party votes change such that 3rd party performance is exactly the same in every part of the nation, and Trump votes shift to accommodate that.

Is this a narrow Clinton victory?
Looks like it to me.
It is.  Goes to show that it was not much of a case of Clinton votes being in the wrong places.  It was more of a case of Trump votes being in the right places.
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« Reply #712 on: December 26, 2017, 03:35:46 PM »

I call this: McMullin screws everything up

Hillary wins PA and MI by tiny margins. McMullin wins by a few thousand votes in Utah.
Electoral Vote count:
Clinton/Kaine: 268
Trump/Pence: 264
McMullin/Finn: 6
Senate Chooses Pence, H.R. chooses Trump in a 32-17 vote (Maine is a tossup), assuming all representatives are 100% partisan.
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« Reply #713 on: December 26, 2017, 03:40:10 PM »

I call this: McMullin screws everything up

Hillary wins PA and MI by tiny margins. McMullin wins by a few thousand votes in Utah.
Electoral Vote count:
Clinton/Kaine: 268
Trump/Pence: 264
McMullin/Finn: 6
Senate Chooses Pence, H.R. chooses Trump in a 32-17 vote (Maine is a tossup), assuming all representatives are 100% partisan.
What do the Senate and House elections look like in this scenario?
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« Reply #714 on: December 26, 2017, 03:46:59 PM »

I call this: McMullin screws everything up

Hillary wins PA and MI by tiny margins. McMullin wins by a few thousand votes in Utah.
Electoral Vote count:
Clinton/Kaine: 268
Trump/Pence: 264
McMullin/Finn: 6
Senate Chooses Pence, H.R. chooses Trump in a 32-17 vote (Maine is a tossup), assuming all representatives are 100% partisan.
What do the Senate and House elections look like in this scenario?
Basically the same, all that happened differently was that just a few thousand people who sat home in MI and PA voted Democrat and maybe lower Trump turnout in Utah to land McMullin a win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #715 on: December 28, 2017, 11:12:56 AM »

2016

Tom Corbett pulls off an upset in the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election and wins a second term before he enters presidential waters in mid-2015. In a crowded field, he wins the nomination. He choses Senator Bob Corker for the second spot, who has, unlike the nominee, broad foreign policy experience. Due to Hillary's baggage and her poor campaign performance, Governor Corbett gets elected president, running on a "compassionate conservatism" platform similar to Duya in 2000 and promising more bipartisanship.



✓ Governor Thomas W. Corbett (R-PA)/Senator Bob Corker (R-TN): 289 EV. (49.54%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 249 EV. (47.75%)


2020

The economy still does well, ISIS is defeated and President Corbett passes a bipartisan improvement of Obamacare as well as a trillion dollar infrastructure package. Vice President Corker decides to retire and Corbett selects UN Ambassador Nikki Haley as his running mate.



✓ President Thomas W. Corbett (R-PA)/U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 319 EV. (51.18%)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 249 EV. (46.62%)
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #716 on: December 28, 2017, 11:46:34 AM »

3 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 350 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 188 EV
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« Reply #717 on: December 28, 2017, 12:21:13 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2017, 12:25:07 PM by weatherboy1102 »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.
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« Reply #718 on: December 28, 2017, 12:36:40 PM »

1 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 307 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 231 EV

2 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 334 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 204 EV

3 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 350 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 188 EV

4 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 350 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 188 EV

5 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 412 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 126 EV

6 point swing towards Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 413 EV
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 125 EV
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #719 on: December 28, 2017, 02:01:20 PM »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.


The Red.
It's Beautiful.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #720 on: December 28, 2017, 04:59:39 PM »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.

lol
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« Reply #721 on: December 28, 2017, 06:48:14 PM »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.

lol
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« Reply #722 on: December 28, 2017, 06:51:53 PM »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.

lol
Are you loling at the unlikelihood of this or at the extreme failure of Trump here?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #723 on: December 28, 2017, 08:48:04 PM »

Bernie VS Trump 2016
I took the polling of Bernie vs Trump in May 2016 and then brought Trump and Sanders up by the same # of points as the two candidates did in reality (+1.3R, +3.0 Dem) I then did a similar MoE as to what happened in reality. (-1.2 Dem,+2.5 Rep)
That leaves us with a whopping spread of 8.4%. As much of a Bernie lover as I am, that's highly unlikely. However, I still mapped it.

Senator Bernard Sanders/Senator Elizabeth Warren: 51.5%, 411 EV
Businessman Donald J. Trump/Governor Michael Pence: 43.1%, 121 EV
Former Policy Director Evan McMullin/Businesswoman Mandy Finn: .6%, 6 EV
Former Governor Gary Johnson/Former Governor Bill Weld: 3.7%, 0 EV
Attorney Darrell Castle/Businessman Scott Bradley: .4%, 0 EV
Others: .7%
Jill Stein doesn't even get 4th place due to most of her base going to Bernie. Bernie's nomination gets the farther right of america to vote in great plains states, causing Castle to get a commanding 4th place. Bernie splits more votes with Trump in Utah over economic issues, allowing McMullin to win. Alaska very nearly goes to Johnson.

lol
Are you loling at the unlikelihood of this or at the extreme failure of Trump here?
He's probably laughing at the fact that you have West Virginia and Kentucky voting for Sanders.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #724 on: December 29, 2017, 02:32:41 AM »

These are some elections in a book I am making and I will be starting this post from 1980. I will go until 2000 on this post, and my next post will be from 2004 to 2020. If you want to know more about the elections pre 1980 in my timeline, I will make more posts aside from these two in twenty year intervals or so (so like 1960 to 1976 or 1940 to 1956 and I think you get the idea from there) although it will probably be in reverse chronological order if you don't mind. Anyways here is the real maps.

--------

1980 Carter loses by a somewhat more respectable margin



Carter - 161 electoral votes 43 percent popular vote

Reagan - 363 electoral votes 46 percent popular vote

Anderson - 14 electoral votes 11 percent popular vote

I gave Carter every state he only lost by less than five percent in and since John Anderson died this month, and he was a truly good candidate in my opinion, I decided to be nice and let him get Massachusetts since he had his best showing there. Carter even then still loses by about 200 electoral votes.

-----

1984 Hart wins the nomination instead of Mondale



Reagan - 396 electoral votes 52 percent popular vote

Hart - 142 electoral votes 48 percent popular vote

------

1988

Dukakis actually wins this time



Dukakis - 280 electoral votes 50 percent popular vote

Bush - 268 electoral votes 50 percent popular vote

-----

1992 but a blow out



Clinton - 498 electoral votes 48 percent popular vote

Kevin (pretty much the Perot of my book) - 32 electoral votes 22 percent popular vote

Bush - 8 electoral votes 30 percent popular vote

I gave this Kevin guy every state that he earned at least 25 percent of the vote in while giving Clinton every state that Bush only won by less than percent with the exception of third party states giving what is in this universe only the third time a third party got second in the electoral college (in my book along with 1912 George Wallace does so as well)

-----

1996 Dole does better



Clinton - 291 electoral votes 51 percent popular vote

Dole - 247 electoral votes 49 percent popular vote

----

2000 results reversed



Gore - 271 electoral votes 47 percent popular vote

Bush - 267 electoral votes 48 percent popular vote

In this timeline, Bush wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, so the opposite of real life
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