FL-Gravis: Nelson +28 over Scott

[heatcharger]

Link.

Nelson (D) 56% (+4)
Scott (R) 28% (-9)

LOL

[Gass3268]

Nice, but Gravis.

[Holmes]

Yeah Gravis sucks, but considering the margin I think it's safe to say Nelson has a nice lead.

[GlobeSoc]

If this poll is true, he is probably holding his North Florida voters and maybe getting a few normally R suburban voters too.

[Ronnie]

I think they just sampled too many Democrats.  It's hard to believe Scott and Trump's approval ratings are that low.

[peterthlee]

I'd like this to become true.
Hmm...

Again, Nelson will crush Scott 54-44 in the GE.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think they just sampled too many Democrats.  It's hard to believe Scott and Trump's approval ratings are that low.

     Partisan affiliation is more D than Florida as a whole, but not too far off. I do notice however that 31% identify as college graduates, with an additional 27% having gone on to graduate education. Comparing to CNN's exit poll, this undersamples people whose highest educational attainment is an undergraduate degree (who voted Trump by 12 points) and dramatically oversamples those with postgraduate education (who voted Clinton by 17 points).

[Dr. Arch]

I think they just sampled too many Democrats.  It's hard to believe Scott and Trump's approval ratings are that low.

     Partisan affiliation is more D than Florida as a whole, but not too far off. I do notice however that 31% identify as college graduates, with an additional 27% having gone on to graduate education. Comparing to CNN's exit poll, this undersamples people whose highest educational attainment is an undergraduate degree (who voted Trump by 12 points) and dramatically oversamples those with postgraduate education (who voted Clinton by 17 points).

Isn't the midterm electorate more educated in general because graduates are a reliable turnout group?

[MT Treasurer]

Why does Gravis think that Florida is California? This isn't their first garbage poll out of this state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why does Gravis think that Florida is California? This isn't their first garbage poll out of this state.

[Heisenberg]

Why does Gravis think that Florida is California? This isn't their first garbage poll out of this state.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think they just sampled too many Democrats.  It's hard to believe Scott and Trump's approval ratings are that low.

     Partisan affiliation is more D than Florida as a whole, but not too far off. I do notice however that 31% identify as college graduates, with an additional 27% having gone on to graduate education. Comparing to CNN's exit poll, this undersamples people whose highest educational attainment is an undergraduate degree (who voted Trump by 12 points) and dramatically oversamples those with postgraduate education (who voted Clinton by 17 points).

Isn't the midterm electorate more educated in general because graduates are a reliable turnout group?

     But would we expect a jump from 16% of the electorate to 27% for people with graduate education while the proportion of people who only have undergraduate degrees drops by 5%? Those numbers don't quite shake out.

[Figueira]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

[peterthlee]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Florida is the compass of 2018 (basically Nelson's performance could be used to gauge the performance of National Democrats).
Virginia is based on Tim Kaine's fame as former VP candidate.

[Figueira]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

...Yes it does?

And I don't see how Nelson's performance is indicative of Democrats overall.

[DrScholl]

It's possible that Scott ends up doing as poorly as Katherine Harris.

[KingSweden]

I think Nelson is less vulnerable than the CV but come on he's not up almost 30 points on a sitting Governor

[InheritTheWind]

I don't believe Nelson is up 28, but keep in mind that Scott attached his wagon to the Trump train early. If Trump goes down in flames, Scott will probably go down with him.

[Skunk]

Why would they even post this? I mean, it's Gravis but even they know that this isn't going to be anywhere close to the results.

[Pericles]

Just as in 2012, Nelson will win by double digits. Scott is unpopular and Nelson is popular, and Trump is also unpopular. That will ensure the seat remains safely in Nelson's hands(unless he has a primary challenge)

[Vosem]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

Josh Mandel is unequivocally the sexiest GOP Senate candidate to have announced yet

[Holmes]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

Josh Mandel is unequivocally the sexiest GOP Senate candidate to have announced yet

Sis...

[Dr. Arch]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

Josh Mandel is unequivocally the sexiest GOP Senate candidate to have announced yet

Uhhhh....

[Pericles]

Why are Florida and Virginia the only Senate races anyone is polling?

Big swingy states? Pennsylvania doesn't have a race this year and Ohio doesn't have a sexy GOP candidate yet.

Josh Mandel is unequivocally the sexiest GOP Senate candidate to have announced yet

He's the only one who has announced. Still, I disagree, I'd say utter nothingness is more sexy than Josh Mandel.