CA-SEN 2018: What would a Feinstein-Eisen runoff look like?

[I’m not Stu]

If Eisen advances to face Feinstein, it would be the first D vs. D statewide race that isn't for an open seat. What would such a race look like? I always wondered what it would be like.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It depends on what the Republicans do. In 2016, there was a high rate of skipping the senate vote among Republicans. Sanchez wasn't really that well known; Harris was the AG, but wasn't super high profile. Some Republicans might vote for Eisen just to get Feinstein out. Honestly, a lot could depend on if Eisen runs as a Democrat or an Independent.

If he runs as an Indy, more Republican voters might choose him out of sheer hatred for Feinstein. Dems should expect to get about 60-65% of the vote in a Dem vs Rep race. Calculations would get wonky if you try to factor in not having a Republican. If that Kansas special election is anything to go off of, Republican turnout might be depressed, especially if the gubernatorial race ends up being between two Dems. Eisen could attract some left wing votes too.

Feinstein's approval rating is just under 50%. Article link: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/325393-many-california-voters-dont-know-how-to-rate-kamala-harris-poll and the actual poll link http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_317MBS.pdf

Another poll from a week ago had more interesting results. 52% don't want her to run again and 62% said that they don't want her to run again after they were reminded that she'll be 84 next year. However, in this poll she has a 59% approval rating. 56% of people would vote for her if she runs, but that number drops to 50% when reminded of her age. There is a poll for a race without Feinstein (Jerry Brown leads, even though he's almost as old); Eisen is not included. Article link: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article142467684.html

Total votes in some deeply Republican counties (the two that Tim Donnelly won in the 2014 Gubernatorial Primary).
Modoc: President: 3,843 Senate: 2,575
Lassen: President: 10,699 Senate: 7,377

Low Republican turnout could lead to really interesting results, such as Eisen managing to get second place. I would not count him out at all.

If Feinstein doesn't run, Eisen has no chance. The field will quickly get crowded and he'll be a nobody in a sea of pols. Eisen wouldn't be the first professor from CA elected to the senate. S.I. Hayakawa served one term from 1977 to 1983 as a Republican.

As to the root of the matter, at this point, I think that Feinstein would win with about 60% to Eisen's 40%. Eisen would probably do well in areas where Bernie did well in the primary (including places like Modoc and Lassen) due to a combination of more left wing Dems and more anti-Feinstein Republicans. My initial map would be based on a swing from Bernie to Hillary in the primary while ignoring votes for the no-name Dems.

I'll try to make a map later.

Edit: Here's the map. Not sure how to embed it since Imgur has turned to crap and won't allow embedded images. http://imgur.com/yi2u6K4

Inyo, Lake, Mono, and Sierra were decided for Eisen by under a percent. Lassen went to Feinstein by under 1%. Modoc was 51.05% to 48.95% for Feinstein.

I took the percentage between Clinton and Sanders and then swung it 6.45% to Clinton to make it 60% to 40% in favor of Feinstein.

[I’m not Stu]

Republicans I know would reluctantly vote for Feinstein because they don't want a more left wing Senator. I'm an independent who tends to vote GOP. I would also vote for Feinstein over Eisen.

[I’m not Stu]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

[BuckeyeNut]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

He said he would run as an Independent.

[I’m not Stu]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

He said he would run as an Independent.

So "Stuttering John" Melendez is the only "official Democrat" other than Feinstein who already filed?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

He said he would run as an Independent.

I'm pretty sure he's said conflicting things about what he'd run as.

[MAINEiac4434]

Feinstein wins bigly.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

He said he would run as an Independent.

I'm pretty sure he's said conflicting things about what he'd run as.

His website says he's running as an independent. http://eisen2018.com/

[I’m not Stu]

Eisen will run as a Democrat. He would likely lose the GOP vote by a wide margin.

He said he would run as an Independent.

I'm pretty sure he's said conflicting things about what he'd run as.

His website says he's running as an independent. http://eisen2018.com/

It looks like independent. Has anyone found anything with the FEC yet?

[Mike Thick]

Feinstein wins bigly.

This. And it applies to whoever faces her in the runoff.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Feinstein win every county? If not, which ones does Eisen win?

[SoLongAtlas]

Feinstein is locked in for life or until she retires (which at this point, she won't do). She is coasting until she drops a la Byrd.

[Mr. Smith]

The only people I can imagine actually giving Feinstein a run for the money are:

Kamala Harris (already Senator)
Ro Khanna (just beat Mike Honda for a House Seat)
Hilda Solis (not going for it and would be a YUGE dark-horse)

And besides Harris (who is already Senator), none of them would really come all that close...probably about the same margin as Kentucky 2014 if lucky.

[I’m not Stu]

The only people I can imagine actually giving Feinstein a run for the money are:

Kamala Harris (already Senator)
Ro Khanna (just beat Mike Honda for a House Seat)
Hilda Solis (not going for it and would be a YUGE dark-horse)

And besides Harris (who is already Senator), none of them would really come all that close...probably about the same margin as Kentucky 2014 if lucky.

Khanna and Solis won't run. None of the serious Democrats want to burn bridges in the party by running against Feinstein. Would Eisen win a few counties, or would Feinstein win them all?

[MAINEiac4434]

The only people I can imagine actually giving Feinstein a run for the money are:

Kamala Harris (already Senator)
Ro Khanna (just beat Mike Honda for a House Seat)
Hilda Solis (not going for it and would be a YUGE dark-horse)

And besides Harris (who is already Senator), none of them would really come all that close...probably about the same margin as Kentucky 2014 if lucky.

Khanna and Solis won't run. None of the serious Democrats want to burn bridges in the party by running against Feinstein. Would Eisen win a few counties, or would Feinstein win them all?

Maybe some conservative areas will see "Feinstein" and "Not Feinstein" on the ballot and vote accordingly, but I think an all-county sweep is certainly possible for DiFi.

[Mr. Smith]

The only people I can imagine actually giving Feinstein a run for the money are:

Kamala Harris (already Senator)
Ro Khanna (just beat Mike Honda for a House Seat)
Hilda Solis (not going for it and would be a YUGE dark-horse)

And besides Harris (who is already Senator), none of them would really come all that close...probably about the same margin as Kentucky 2014 if lucky.

Khanna and Solis won't run. None of the serious Democrats want to burn bridges in the party by running against Feinstein. Would Eisen win a few counties, or would Feinstein win them all?

Already alluded to that.

And as for Feinstein sweeping all the counties, that's a YUGE possibility, especially just because of the anti-Berkeley bias in some of those Inland and Southern Counties that otherwise might be sympathetic to anti-Feinstein sentiment.

I'd guess Alpine or Mono counties would be the biggest resistance areas in such a case, unless Eisen were to somehow be able to ride as the "anti-Establishment" or "Feinstein's too old" camp.

[I’m not Stu]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

[peterthlee]

Feinstein wins by a solid margin of 65-35.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The only people I can imagine actually giving Feinstein a run for the money are:

Kamala Harris (already Senator)
Ro Khanna (just beat Mike Honda for a House Seat)
Hilda Solis (not going for it and would be a YUGE dark-horse)

And besides Harris (who is already Senator), none of them would really come all that close...probably about the same margin as Kentucky 2014 if lucky.

Khanna and Solis won't run. None of the serious Democrats want to burn bridges in the party by running against Feinstein. Would Eisen win a few counties, or would Feinstein win them all?

Already alluded to that.

And as for Feinstein sweeping all the counties, that's a YUGE possibility, especially just because of the anti-Berkeley bias in some of those Inland and Southern Counties that otherwise might be sympathetic to anti-Feinstein sentiment.

I'd guess Alpine or Mono counties would be the biggest resistance areas in such a case, unless Eisen were to somehow be able to ride as the "anti-Establishment" or "Feinstein's too old" camp.

I could see Eisen doing well along the North Coast, like in Humboldt County, as well. Mono and Alpine could be good places; perhaps Nevada County too. Not sure if he will hitch his wagon to those two camps, but that would be his best opportunity.

Edit: I wonder where he stands on gun control. That could be an opening.

[MAINEiac4434]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

Conservatives in West Virginia voted for Bernie Sanders by virtue of him not being Hillary Clinton.

[I’m not Stu]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

Conservatives in West Virginia voted for Bernie Sanders by virtue of him not being Hillary Clinton.

But I'm talking about a general election, which actually puts a candidate into office. Would those WV voters have voted for Bernie had he won the nomination, or would they still have voted for the GOP nominee? I mean you would actually vote for 311's singer over Feinstein.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

Conservatives in West Virginia voted for Bernie Sanders by virtue of him not being Hillary Clinton.

But I'm talking about a general election, which actually puts a candidate into office. Would those WV voters have voted for Bernie had he won the nomination, or would they still have voted for the GOP nominee? I mean you would actually vote for 311's singer over Feinstein.

Protest votes don't always make sense outside of them not being the other candidate. I wouldn't bank on Eisen winning conservative protest votes in the general, but it's a possibility that shouldn't be completely tossed out.

[I’m not Stu]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

Conservatives in West Virginia voted for Bernie Sanders by virtue of him not being Hillary Clinton.

But I'm talking about a general election, which actually puts a candidate into office. Would those WV voters have voted for Bernie had he won the nomination, or would they still have voted for the GOP nominee? I mean you would actually vote for 311's singer over Feinstein.

Protest votes don't always make sense outside of them not being the other candidate. I wouldn't bank on Eisen winning conservative protest votes in the general, but it's a possibility that shouldn't be completely tossed out.

Exactly. Isn't WV one of the few states where Obama lost counties in the 2012 Democratic primary? Even in most deep-red states Obama won every county in his own party's primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

I can't see conservatives voting for anyone to the left of Feinstein. I think most Republicans would stay home or hold their nose and vote for Feinstein only because the other candidate is to Feinstein's left.

Conservatives in West Virginia voted for Bernie Sanders by virtue of him not being Hillary Clinton.

But I'm talking about a general election, which actually puts a candidate into office. Would those WV voters have voted for Bernie had he won the nomination, or would they still have voted for the GOP nominee? I mean you would actually vote for 311's singer over Feinstein.

No, I'm willing to bet around half of Bernie's WV primary voters would've voted for the Republican nominee even if Bernie was the Democratic nominee.