Iranian Presidential election, 2017: HE'S (no longer) BAAAACK

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39576057

[brucejoel99]

Hmm... I wonder if this means that 2017 will be the first presidential election since 2005 to have a run-off necessitated

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am not even sure he will be allowed to run.

[brucejoel99]

i am not even sure he will be allowed to run.

That's true. After all, all candidates must be approved by the election overseers, known as the Guardian Council, to make it onto the ballot, & both the Guardian Council's closeness to Khamenei & the fraught relationship between Ahmadinejad & Khamenei in the final years of Ahmadinejad's presidency b/c of a power struggle at the height of Iran could lead to him being knocked out the race.

[DavidB.]

Though I know it's probably for the best that it doesn't happen, part of me hopes that he gets to run and he wins. It won't get worse than it is anyway, yet in his case the world won't look away and pretend he's a nice guy FF like with Rohani.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Though I know it's probably for the best that it doesn't happen, part of me hopes that he gets to run and he wins. It won't get worse than it is anyway, yet in his case the world won't look away and pretend he's a nice guy FF like with Rohani.

i kind of understand your political wishing for extremism to make clear differences visible but i would not in 1000 years accept an outcome which brings the different wings of power in symmetry again and boggles the chance to use khamenei's death for a soft coup.

rohani may not be a hero for us but he sure as hell is for anti-system iranians who hate ahmadi-nejad and khamenei both.

[Babeuf]

I'd be shocked if they let him run.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

i am not even sure he will be allowed to run.

If the Council could declare Rafsanjani ineligible to run the last time, there's absolutely nothing that could prevent him from tossing Ahmadinejad aside.

[DavidB.]

i kind of understand your political wishing for extremism to make clear differences visible but i would not in 1000 years accept an outcome which brings the different wings of power in symmetry again and boggles the chance to use khamenei's death for a soft coup.

rohani may not be a hero for us but he sure as hell is for anti-system iranians who hate ahmadi-nejad and khamenei both.

Good and convincing strategic point. As for your second point, however, the human rights situation has gotten only worse under Rohani as far as I know. At least that's what several NGOs report.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

i kind of understand your political wishing for extremism to make clear differences visible but i would not in 1000 years accept an outcome which brings the different wings of power in symmetry again and boggles the chance to use khamenei's death for a soft coup.

rohani may not be a hero for us but he sure as hell is for anti-system iranians who hate ahmadi-nejad and khamenei both.

Good and convincing strategic point. As for your second point, however, the human rights situation has gotten only worse under Rohani as far as I know. At least that's what several NGOs report.

That's true, unfortuately. For example a number of executions went up.

[ApatheticAustrian]

you are both totally correct, i just hear all the time how the government is fighting against the real power-brokers regarding liberalism-issues. not convincing myself that there are angels in the administration but i am not even sure how much power rohani has right now to influence the work of the security forces/justice system.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Though I know it's probably for the best that it doesn't happen, part of me hopes that he gets to run and he wins. It won't get worse than it is anyway, yet in his case the world won't look away and pretend he's a nice guy FF like with Rohani.

i kind of understand your political wishing for extremism to make clear differences visible but i would not in 1000 years accept an outcome which brings the different wings of power in symmetry again and boggles the chance to use khamenei's death for a soft coup.

rohani may not be a hero for us but he sure as hell is for anti-system iranians who hate ahmadi-nejad and khamenei both.

I agree with both of you, to be honest. People treating Rohani as a moderate hero is very problematic, but he is probably better for the people in Iran who despise extremism.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Rouhani is obviously flimsy decoration for the regime, but the maini priority should be avoiding war. Trump and Ahmadinejad would not be a great combination in that regards.

I think he probably knows he will be denied, but is using this as a chance to to raise his profile and endorse another candidate (his VP Hamid Baqai) to try and get his foot back in the door.

[ApatheticAustrian]

rouhani is practically surely just decoration but that doesn't mean that his isn't trying to push back and create his own power base and fights for stuff he thinks of as important (more rights for women, media freedom, little less supression of political opposition and all-about improved diplomatic relationships with most countries and not just the axis of autocrats) - and that the real power-brokers (khamenei, revolutionary guards...) are not trying to get a TRUVE CONSERVATIVE elected.

the political system of iran is surely unique (only real dictatorship to my knowledge which can be influenced to some scale by elections, which are even a little bit connected to reality) but there is some kind of competition...and options which are better or worse for us, imho.

[Donerail]

this election-type event will be occurring without Ahmadinejad.

[Middle-aged Europe]

this election-type event will be occurring without Ahmadinejad.

A rare approvable decision made by the Guardian Council.

[Beezer]

The crooked guardian council is rigging this election.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The crooked guardian council is rigging this election.

That's one of their primary functions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, there are now six "approved" candidates which can roughly be put into two camps:

Sane (moderate/reformist) candidates
- Hassan Rouhani, incumbent President
- Eshaq Jahangiri, incumbent First Vice President
- Mostafa Hashemitaba, former Vice President

Insane (ultra-conservative/extremist) candidates
- Ebrahim Raisi, former Attorney-General
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, incumbent Mayor of Tehran
- Mostafa Mir-Salim, former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance

It is expected that some of these candidates may drop out of the race prior to the election. For instance, Vice President Jahangiri is basically running to support Rouhani's bid (he also served as a back-up candidate in case Rouhani is vetoed by the Guardian Council).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there much of a rural urban split in Iran between conservatives and reformists?

[ApatheticAustrian]

there is, even while it is messy.

[Devout Centrist]

So, there are now six "approved" candidates which can roughly be put into two camps:

Sane (moderate/reformist) candidates
- Hassan Rouhani, incumbent President
- Eshaq Jahangiri, incumbent First Vice President
- Mostafa Hashemitaba, former Vice President

Insane (ultra-conservative/extremist) candidates
- Ebrahim Raisi, former Attorney-General
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, incumbent Mayor of Tehran
- Mostafa Mir-Salim, former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance

It is expected that some of these candidates may drop out of the race prior to the election. For instance, Vice President Jahangiri is basically running to support Rouhani's bid (he also served as a back-up candidate in case Rouhani is vetoed by the Guardian Council).

Why is the mayor of Tehran always a nutjob?

[Zanas]

So, there are now six "approved" candidates which can roughly be put into two camps:

Sane (moderate/reformist) candidates
- Hassan Rouhani, incumbent President
- Eshaq Jahangiri, incumbent First Vice President
- Mostafa Hashemitaba, former Vice President

Insane (ultra-conservative/extremist) candidates
- Ebrahim Raisi, former Attorney-General
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, incumbent Mayor of Tehran
- Mostafa Mir-Salim, former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance

It is expected that some of these candidates may drop out of the race prior to the election. For instance, Vice President Jahangiri is basically running to support Rouhani's bid (he also served as a back-up candidate in case Rouhani is vetoed by the Guardian Council).

Why is the mayor of Tehran always a nutjob?

Have you been to Tehran and try to cross a street there ? ^__^ More seriously, I'm going out on a limb and guess that maybe the Guardians cannot allow someone even remotely sane and decent to reach Tehran's mayoralty, because that could get dangerous for the regime.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ahmadinejad says won't endorse other candidates

[JA]

Candidate | Party | Ideology

Hassan Rouhani | Moderation and Development Party | Pragmatism
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | Progress and Justice Population of Iran | Conservatism
Ebrahim Raisi | Combatant Clergy Association | Clericalism
Eshaq Jahangiri | Executives of Construction Party | Reformism
Mostafa Mir-Salim | Islamic Coalition Party | Islamism
Mostafa Hashemitaba | Executives of Construction Party | Reformism

iPPO - American

33% | Undecided
23% | Rouhani
14% | Others
11% | Ghalibaf
10% | No Answer
09% | Raisi
01% | Mir-Salim
00% | Jahangiri
00% | Hashemitaba

Conducted: 06-09 May, 2017

ISPA - Iranian

41.6% | Rouhani
26.7% | Raisi
24.6% | Ghalibaf
03.2% | Jahangiri
02.8% | Mir-Salim
01.2% | Hashemitaba

Conducted: 07-08 May, 2017

ISPA - Iranian

47.7% | Rouhani
38.7% | Raisi

Conducted: 07-08 May, 2017