The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[Ichabod]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

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Trump wins again!

Does he win? It is fairly impossible this "bill" (pretty sure nobody has read the exact words of the bill) passes the Senate.

[krazen1211]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

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Trump wins again!

Until lots of the House Republicans get booted in 2018 and this dies a horrible death in the Senate!

Lol. As silly as it is to predict this iteration of the Democrat party winning anything, even if you assume that outcome, its no big deal for our wonderful and Amazing President.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

A bill that passes by single digits in the House has no chance in the Senate.  I'm sure Quist and Ossoff appreciate the momentum boost, though!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Seriously no CBO score or showing the bill's language to the public?! Has anyone told them this bill hurts them more long term then it dying?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

[Matty]

They wouldn't be voting on it if ryan didn't think he had the votes. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A bill that passes by single digits in the House has no chance in the Senate.  I'm sure Quist and Ossoff appreciate the momentum boost, though!

Here's a bill that failed in the House by single digits after passing the Senate 100-0.

http://missoulian.com/uncategorized/house-rejects-airline-security-measure/article_f3de8706-62a1-52f7-aebe-ef0b8a2c8850.html

[Hammy]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

I think these two are the most likely outcomes, and I'm leaning towards 5--if the House passes it, moderates in the Senate will lock step with the party line and the Dems will be the only ones voting no.

[The_Doctor]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

[Ronnie]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

I think these two are the most likely outcomes, and I'm leaning towards 5--if the House passes it, moderates in the Senate will lock step with the party line and the Dems will be the only ones voting no.

What makes you think so?  First, moderate Republican congressmen will largely vote against the bill, and they represent a much smaller percentage of the house than the senate.  Second, moderate Republican senators expressed deep concern over the bill's previous iteration, and if anything, this one is even more draconian than the last.  Allowing states to avoid covering pre-existing conditions is nothing but a poison pill for anyone other than the safest Republicans.  Not to mention, unlike congressmen, senators represent entire states with diverse populations, making them far more susceptible and accountable to interest groups like the AARP.

[Matty]

Young, Valdao, knight, and dehman all switch to yes

[Mehmentum]

The apparent lockstep nature of the Senate is an illusion. 

McConnell isn't going be bring anything to the floor that would fail, and most high profile votes so far have been cabinet confirmations, i.e. the Senate Republican majority has not been tested at all.

[The_Doctor]

Young, Valdao, knight, and dehman all switch to yes

They sponsored the Upton Amendment but I'm not sure on final passage. We'll see.

[Mehmentum]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

There's another option.  A bill passes both houses, but the House and Senate can't reconcile their two bills.  Anyway, I agree that the longer the process goes on, the worse it is for Republicans.

[GlobeSoc]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

I'm starting to think that your timeline might be slightly derailed from the GOP being idiotic as an institution.

[The_Doctor]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

I'm starting to think that your timeline might be slightly derailed from the GOP being idiotic as an institution.

We'll see. depending on where it goes I'll write an article but the GOP is pretty self destructive and have been so for a while. Also in my timeline RyanCare (similar to this) passed the House and died in the Senate ...

[Ronnie]

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but how long can the Republicans delay a CBO assessment?  I imagine they'll want to keep the ramifications of the bill under wraps for as long as possible.

[Tartarus Sauce]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

If the Republicans thought town hall protests were bad before, they've got a whole other thing coming if they actually manage to narrowly pass this in the House.

They get to do a big hoorah about working closer to "killing" Obamacare and handing Trump a quick win, and screw themselves over in the long term. There are so many different ways this could come to bite them in the ass, it's beyond myopic they're pushing themselves to pass it. They're borrowing instant political capital now charged against political gains later.

This isn't even mentioning how badly they will get burnt in the state legislatures by granting states the leverage to control pre-existing coverage. On the off-chance this monstrosity actually becomes law, the current setup is a silver bullet to undo all of the gains Republicans have made in the state chambers come the midterms. All the Democrats have to do is campaign on maximizing state coverage on preexisting conditions and out goes the Republican majorities.

[The_Doctor]

I hope this isn't a dumb question, but how long can the Republicans delay a CBO assessment?  I imagine they'll want to keep the ramifications of the bill under wraps for as long as possible.

The CBO will almost certainly score it before the Senate takes it up or around the time debate begins in the Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

There's another option.  A bill passes both houses, but the House and Senate can't reconcile their two bills.  Anyway, I agree that the longer the process goes on, the worse it is for Republicans.

You're right, I didn't think of that one.  And it's not all that unlikely.

[Blue3]

Obamacare will be dead soon:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Senate still has to have its say, and go to conference committee, and pass through both chambers again. This is far from over. The most they'll probably be able to agree on is a state opt-out, in the end.

[The_Doctor]

They're doing a riverboat gamble. They're down about five votes in the House in one estimate. Webster is a yes (as I predicted). Fuller thinks it is a jump ball.

I'm skeptical that Issa, Curbelo, Coffman, and the other potential no votes I listed are actually going to walk the plank. Maybe they will but I am skeptical. David Young was a no but is now a maybe.

The thing I keep thinking about is why would House Republicans vote tomorrow to pass the bill when they know the Senate will be vastly more moderate and change it substantially? And why would they want to have that on their records in 2018 as they run again? The midterms may be older and whiter but they're also a midterm where Trump is at the 40s.

The attack ads write themselves. I think they're so jammed right now between the activists and the electorate that they seriously are doing jump ball without a CBO record. Which may in fact bite them in the arse.

The question to me, why risk it all? Why not kill the bill and repair ObamaCare, like a lot of other center right parties have done and take the credit? Repair it, move it to rhe right, and then claim credit?

The biggest reality is that this is a temporary 10 year bill. Meaning in ten ears they'll have to hope a Democratic White House isn't in place and that one chamber isn't in Democratic hands barring that. Given we almost certainly will have a Democratic White House by 2025 at the latest thats optimistic. That assumes no crisis.

I haven't even pointed out that the ACA has helped with the debt crisis coming in. So we'll see.

In other words the long term upside to fixing Obamacare is so much better than this.

Anyway I could be wrong and they pass it… but my gut says 213 yes, 218 no. Almost certainly it will die in the Senate.

If the Republicans thought town hall protests were bad before, they've got a whole other thing coming if they actually manage to narrowly pass this in the House.

They get to do a big hoorah about working closer to "killing" Obamacare and handing Trump a quick win, and screw themselves over in the long term. There are so many different ways this could come to bite them in the ass, it's beyond myopic they're pushing themselves to pass it. They're borrowing instant political capital now charged against political gains later.

This isn't even mentioning how badly they will get burnt in the state legislatures by granting states the leverage to control pre-existing coverage. On the off-chance this monstrosity actually becomes law, the current setup is a silver bullet to undo all of the gains Republicans have made in the state chambers come the midterms. All the Democrats have to do is campaign on maximizing state coverage on preexisting conditions and out goes the Republican majorities.

Yup.

[ApatheticAustrian]

current whip-count.

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/859938496668196864

[Matty]

Why is Matt Fuller assuming the undecideds break so much for the YES side?

His whip count is at 19 No or "leaning no" and 13 undecided.

Just getting 4 of those 13 (about 30%) is enough to kill the bill.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why is Matt Fuller assuming the undecideds break so much for the YES side?

he knows all players, watches how people react while getting "whipped" and assumes, many people only call themselves "undecided" cause they don't want to get flak.

and to be fair....the house leadership wouldn't make such positive noises about tomorrow without getting a lot of positive results, imho.