OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

JEAN SCHMIDT  57,974  52%   
 PAUL HACKETT  54,401  48%

Clermont still not in

Whoa, I was close:

Schmitt- 52.87%
Hackett- 47.13%

Not a bad prediction, I must say.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm even doubling on top of what I said before:  if they can't win the Governor's race in 2006 in Ohio, they don't deserve to ever win Ohio (obviously, the Senate race is tougher, but not impossible).

Democrats definitely need to win the governor's office. And DeWine is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the Senate. There is at least one House Democrat (maybe two) that can beat DeWine in 2006.

[Max Power]

JEAN SCHMIDT  57,974  52%   
 PAUL HACKETT  54,401  48%

Clermont still not in

Whoa, I was close:

Schmitt- 52.87%
Hackett- 47.13%

Not a bad prediction, I must say.

Thanks!

[jimrtex]

Results are in, Schmidt wins by 4000 votes, which is outside the margin which would trigger a recount, though I wouldn't be surprised if Dems gather up enough money to call one.  With the machines completely dying in clermont, there will be investigations, but unless someone finds 5000 extra votes in a closet somewhere, it's time to move on to 2006.  Final result, 52% to 48%, Schmidt.

There were a couple of write-in candidates.  One with 10 votes and another with 3 votes.  Maybe they'll want the recount.  

[RBH]

Wow, gallant effort by Hackett. If it's a victory, and it looks like it is, it feels a bit like an empty victory.

It's sorta like Notre Dame beating Navy by a field goal. Some will insist that Navy was just very enthusiastic. Some will think that maybe Navy will beat Notre Dame next year.

If Taft wants to feel better, he should know that his approval rating won't fall to 10% (but I could be wrong)

[Sam Spade]

Wow, gallant effort by Hackett. If it's a victory, and it looks like it is, it feels a bit like an empty victory.

It's sorta like Notre Dame beating Navy by a field goal. Some will insist that Navy was just very enthusiastic. Some will think that maybe Navy will beat Notre Dame next year.

If Taft wants to feel better, he should know that his approval rating won't fall to 10% (but I could be wrong)

Excellent analogy.  Couldn't say it better myself.

[TheresNoMoney]

Turnout was actually higher than expected.

It's a miracle Hackett did this well with higher than expected turnout.

[Giant Saguaro]

Wow, gallant effort by Hackett. If it's a victory, and it looks like it is, it feels a bit like an empty victory.

It's sorta like Notre Dame beating Navy by a field goal. Some will insist that Navy was just very enthusiastic. Some will think that maybe Navy will beat Notre Dame next year.

If Taft wants to feel better, he should know that his approval rating won't fall to 10% (but I could be wrong)

Yup. What jumps out at me most is how badly she got walloped in those eatern counties that I guess the one before her (a bit tired, so I'm starting to draw blanks on names) won with 70% or so.

I have issues with Paul Hackett, I wouldn't have supported him, but I respect what he did here. And low turnout, high turnout - if this is a GOP district in the 70th percentile, there's no reason to sit on your butt. Go vote, I always do no matter what it looks like. He did a real job here.

[Jake]

Kudos to Casey. Nice prediction man

[Max Power]

Kudos to Casey. Nice prediction man

Thanks!

[George W. Bush]

I'm even doubling on top of what I said before:  if they can't win the Governor's race in 2006 in Ohio, they don't deserve to ever win Ohio (obviously, the Senate race is tougher, but not impossible).

Democrats definitely need to win the governor's office. And DeWine is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the Senate. There is at least one House Democrat (maybe two) that can beat DeWine in 2006.

Unless the Dems run someone like Kennedy, Boxer, Ect. I will be voteing agianst DeWine in 2006.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm even doubling on top of what I said before:  if they can't win the Governor's race in 2006 in Ohio, they don't deserve to ever win Ohio (obviously, the Senate race is tougher, but not impossible).

Democrats definitely need to win the governor's office. And DeWine is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the Senate. There is at least one House Democrat (maybe two) that can beat DeWine in 2006.

Unless the Dems run someone like Kennedy, Boxer, Ect. I will be voteing agianst DeWine in 2006.

Maybe Hackett will run.

[Jake]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

[RBH]

Wow, gallant effort by Hackett. If it's a victory, and it looks like it is, it feels a bit like an empty victory.

It's sorta like Notre Dame beating Navy by a field goal. Some will insist that Navy was just very enthusiastic. Some will think that maybe Navy will beat Notre Dame next year.

If Taft wants to feel better, he should know that his approval rating won't fall to 10% (but I could be wrong)

Yup. What jumps out at me most is how badly she got walloped in those eatern counties that I guess the one before her (a bit tired, so I'm starting to draw blanks on names) won with 70% or so.

I have issues with Paul Hackett, I wouldn't have supported him, but I respect what he did here. And low turnout, high turnout - if this is a GOP district in the 70th percentile, there's no reason to sit on your butt. Go vote, I always do no matter what it looks like. He did a real job here.

Clinton won those counties (Scioto and Pike), but Bush won them in 2000 and 2004.

In a way, they're sorta like Purple Democrat Counties. Meaning that if the cards are stacked right (there's either a good candidate on our side or the GOP doesn't have a good candidate) then the Democrats can win there.

We have quite a few Purple counties in Missouri too.

[RBH]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

I'd prefer the Democrats rise again in East Texas.

But, that's probably not in the cards either.

[Jake]

Hahaha, I'll agree with that.

[RBH]

Hahaha, I'll agree with that.

Yeah.

There's either a "Bush effect" on voters or there'll be a lot of formerly Democrat counties (WV, MO, so on) that are newly Republican.

I will admit that Bush probably has a charm about him, or more charm than other Republicans.

[Sam Spade]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

I'd prefer the Democrats rise again in East Texas.

But, that's probably not in the cards either.

Heh.  I remember the times when there used to be voters in East Texas who would rather die than vote Republican.  Times have obviously changed.

[RBH]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

I'd prefer the Democrats rise again in East Texas.

But, that's probably not in the cards either.

Heh.  I remember the times when there used to be voters in East Texas who would rather die than vote Republican.  Times have obviously changed.

Yeah, those voters are dead.

That's what changed.

[Moooooo]

Nick,   

I served four years in the Air Force. Which branch of the military are you in, or planning to join?

I dont remember calling you a ChickenHawk.  When I typed "NeCons" you were not one of the posters I had in mind. 

Thank you for your service, sir.

[Moooooo]

Nick,

If memory serves, Bush was in the ANG.  You may scoff at it now, but he did serve his country.   Have you?

Yes he served his country.  No I have not, but If I had a powerful daddy who could slip me into the ANG in order to avoid the draft... You can bet your ass Id probably take him up on it.

[ATFFL]

For Democrats:

The good news is you came very close to winning a race in a district that should have been a slaughter.

The bad news is you still lost. 

The worse news will be if this serves as a wake up call to the Ohio GOP and they get their act together.

[Jake]

Even worse news than that: You still have people like Scoonie in your party.

[Smash255]

Wish Hackett won, but a race this close in a district this Republican even with Hackett being an Iraq War veteran shows promising signs for the Dems

[RBH]

The worse news will be if this serves as a wake up call to the Ohio GOP and they get their act together.

So the Ohio GOP is going to find a way to effectively distance their party from their governor?

that'll be something to see.