OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone know what turnout is like?

[TheBulldog]

Go Hacket!!! This guy has got me back to this forum.  Hacket will win, Americans are sick of Republicans, especially in Ohio.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone know what turnout is like?

No idea.

[TheresNoMoney]

Anyone know what turnout is like?

Supposedly pretty good. A little better than expected.

[Giant Saguaro]

This morning turnout was "projected" to be around 20% and considering this is essentially a glorified local election, I'm surprised there has been little to nothing come out. I'm sure everyone figures it's a no-brainer aside from both campaigns, but that it's been so quiet surprises me. Lefty bloggers backing off, way off, as someone else noted, but that's about it. Wait and see.

[Joe Republic]

No opinion polls, no exit polls, nothing.  I know this election is hardly a big deal, but damn, this is frustrating for the rest of us.

Word on the street is that turnout is quite a lot higher, and in Hackett's favor.  But that 'source' is a Cincy Democrat friend of mine, so I wouldn't read into it all that much.

[Ben.]

Go Hacket!!! This guy has got me back to this forum.  Hacket will win, Americans are sick of Republicans, especially in Ohio.

Thanks for that insight.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Schmidt will win comfortably, despite Hackett using Bush in his advertising, ala Tom Daschle.  Schmidt's internal polling (conducted by Zogby) had her leading Hackett by comfortable double digits, though those figures are nearly two weeks old--a lifetime in politics.  Still, Hackett's Neo-Con ads will fail to turn this around for him in time.

[TheresNoMoney]

Word on the street is that turnout is quite a lot higher, and in Hackett's favor.  But that 'source' is a Cincy Democrat friend of mine, so I wouldn't read into it all that much.

I just read on DKos that turnout will likely be between 15%-20%, which is probably a good thing for Hackett.

[Jake]

Hahaha, no. Dems here were calling for 35-40% turnout figures. Hackett has zero chance to win with 15-20% turnout.

[Gabu]

Schmidt's internal polling (conducted by Zogby) had her leading Hackett by comfortable double digits

Zogby?

Oh good, that means Hackett will win.

[TheresNoMoney]

Hahaha, no. Dems here were calling for 35-40% turnout figures.

Where did you see that?

Hackett has zero chance to win with 15-20% turnout.

The lower the turnout the better. Hackett needs a lot of Republicans to stay home. No one expects him to win this race, but low turnout favors him more than Schmidt.

[MHS2002]

Before the polls close, my prediction:

Schmidt: 58%
Hackett: 42%

[2952-0-0]

Okay. Half an hour...dun dun dun...

[MHS2002]

Some links that might be good for tracking the results:

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html

http://www.channelcincinnati.com/index.html

Hopefully one of those two will be updated on a fairly regular basis.

[Jake]

Hahaha, no. Dems here were calling for 35-40% turnout figures.

Where did you see that?

Defarge - Page Three

[TheresNoMoney]

Defarge - Page Three

OK, you said "Dems". There was only one. You should have just said DeFarge.  No one following this race closely would have predicted that high of a turnout.

[Moooooo]

Schmidt will win comfortably, despite Hackett using Bush in his advertising, ala Tom Daschle.  Schmidt's internal polling (conducted by Zogby) had her leading Hackett by comfortable double digits, though those figures are nearly two weeks old--a lifetime in politics.  Still, Hackett's Neo-Con ads will fail to turn this around for him in time.

Source?  I heard the complete opposite.  Internals had Hackett down by 5% two weeks ago.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Polls closed

[Moooooo]

Brown County Results

PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 35) .  .  .  .  .        35  100.00
REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL .  .  .  .  .    29,220
BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL.  .  .  .  .  .  .       460
VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL  .  .  .  .  .  .              1.57

Representative to Congress
(Vote For Not More Than )  1
(WITH 35 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED)
 PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       242   52.95
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       213   46.61
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2     .44
 Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       457
Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         1
Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2

[Moooooo]

Hamilton County Absentees

RESULTS   Hackett   Schmidt
    1,629   1,964

[nini2287]

Where are you getting the results from, Nick?

[Moooooo]

Where are you getting the results from, Nick?

Secret...


Just kidding.  The absentee results I found on SwingStateProject.  The Brown County Results can be found here.

http://66.241.236.181/elect/ohbrown/results.txt  -  Refresh the page if the results still say 0-0.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You can't conclude much from these early returns.

[nini2287]

Brown County Results

PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 35) .  .  .  .  .        35  100.00
REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL .  .  .  .  .    29,220
BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL.  .  .  .  .  .  .       460
VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL  .  .  .  .  .  .              1.57

Representative to Congress
(Vote For Not More Than )  1
(WITH 35 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED)
 PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       242   52.95
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       213   46.61
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2     .44
 Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       457
Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         1
Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2

Good sign so far as Portman won Brown county by the same margin in 2004 that he won the general election (although this election had 18,500 less votes cast)