Green: Cruz
Red: Rubio
Blue: Kasich
Map is probably inaccurate but without Trump in the race I don't see anyone other than Cruz winning. In this scenario he would not only capture the "hardcore conservative" demographic as he did, but take the southern conservative base that he was initially expected to win but went to Trump.
Rubio would have more "room" to improve but his failings were as a candidate and I don't see him improving significantly over his actual performance.
As for the primaries, Cruz wins Iowa and South Carolina and sweeps the Santorum/Huckabee states, while Rubio and Kasich split the establishment vote and lag behind, both dropping out in mid-late April.
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