2016 Rep Primaries without Trump
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  2016 Rep Primaries without Trump
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Poll
Question: If Trump didn't run, who would have been the Republican Nominee?
#1
Ted Cruz
 
#2
Scott Walker
 
#3
Jeb Bush
 
#4
John Kasich
 
#5
Marco Rubio
 
#6
Ben Carson
 
#7
Carly Fiorina
 
#8
Rand Paul
 
#9
Rock Santorum
 
#10
Mike Huckabee
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 45

Author Topic: 2016 Rep Primaries without Trump  (Read 1105 times)
FDB
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« on: April 09, 2017, 08:04:32 PM »

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Mike Thick
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2017, 08:28:54 PM »

Eh, lean Cruz. On the one hand, he's probably the most plausible non-Trump vehicle for anti-establishment furor, but on the other, I'm not totally sure that it would have manifested at all without Trump.
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RC (a la Frémont)
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2017, 06:21:38 PM »

Can't decide between Ted, Jeb, Rubio. Kasich would be more popular in the NE states, but not enough to win the nomination. Same with Rubio but different states. Jeb would probably do as well as Romney 2008. So Cruz is the only one with a realistic chance.

Actually, nvm. It would be ROck Santorum
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2017, 07:55:32 PM »


Gov. John Kasich - 40.6%
Sen. Ted Cruz - 28.5%
Sen. Marco Rubio - 27.6%
Others - 3.3%
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2017, 11:52:50 PM »

Cruz wins easily, but loses the GE handily regardless of it being Bernie [more popular policies and obviously more likable, just look at how the debate went] or Hillary [who is somehow less artificial and robotic in comparison to Cruz].
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2017, 07:08:46 PM »

Cruz wins easily, but loses the GE handily regardless of it being Bernie [more popular policies and obviously more likable, just look at how the debate went] or Hillary [who is somehow less artificial and robotic in comparison to Cruz].
Cruz smashed Sanders. All the polls immediately after the debate showed Cruz crushing him, until the Bernie Bros blindly voted that Sanders won.

As for the Republican nomination, I'm inclined to say Rubio only because Cruz thrived off of anti-Trump conservatives. Rubio was the rising star, and probably would've won New Hampshire, then South Carolina, and probably a good chunk of Super Tuesday states. The primaries probably would've been Rubio vs. Cruz vs. Paul.
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NHI
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2017, 07:12:42 PM »

Either TC or MR wins the nomination, and then loses to HRC.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2017, 10:05:59 PM »

Rubio wins
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2017, 12:31:26 AM »


Green: Cruz
Red: Rubio
Blue: Kasich

Map is probably inaccurate but without Trump in the race I don't see anyone other than Cruz winning. In this scenario he would not only capture the "hardcore conservative" demographic as he did, but take the southern conservative base that he was initially expected to win but went to Trump.
Rubio would have more "room" to improve but his failings were as a candidate and I don't see him improving significantly over his actual performance.
As for the primaries, Cruz wins Iowa and South Carolina and sweeps the Santorum/Huckabee states, while Rubio and Kasich split the establishment vote and lag behind, both dropping out in mid-late April.
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2017, 03:00:33 AM »

I actually thinks its a contested convention

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Medal506
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« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2017, 07:21:13 PM »

My guess is Ted Cruz probably would have been the nominee and would have won both the electoral and popular vote in the general election however I think he probably would have won less of the electoral vote than Trump
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RC (a la Frémont)
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2017, 03:49:54 PM »


Gov. John Kasich - 40.6%
Sen. Ted Cruz - 28.5%
Sen. Marco Rubio - 27.6%
Others - 3.3%

There's no way in hell Kasich could've won with the GOP in 2016's political landscape, only with Independents, Democrats, and a select few moderate Republicans
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Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2017, 01:08:37 AM »


Gov. John Kasich - 40.6%
Sen. Ted Cruz - 28.5%
Sen. Marco Rubio - 27.6%
Others - 3.3%

There's no way in hell Kasich could've won with the GOP in 2016's political landscape, only with Independents, Democrats, and a select few moderate Republicans


Kasich could have won if he had Jeb's money .
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2017, 01:09:58 PM »

Kasich won NH, MA, MN, VT, VA(before a recount), HI, MI, D. C., IL, and OH by March 15. When Rand Paul and Ben Carson drop out and endorse him between March 16-21, he becomes the front runner.
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uti2
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2017, 11:11:49 AM »

Cruz wins easily, but loses the GE handily regardless of it being Bernie [more popular policies and obviously more likable, just look at how the debate went] or Hillary [who is somehow less artificial and robotic in comparison to Cruz].
Cruz smashed Sanders. All the polls immediately after the debate showed Cruz crushing him, until the Bernie Bros blindly voted that Sanders won.

As for the Republican nomination, I'm inclined to say Rubio only because Cruz thrived off of anti-Trump conservatives. Rubio was the rising star, and probably would've won New Hampshire, then South Carolina, and probably a good chunk of Super Tuesday states. The primaries probably would've been Rubio vs. Cruz vs. Paul.

Cruz had a base beyond being 'anti-trump', he had religious conservatives + a sizable number of libertarians. On the other hand, rubio's base was almost 100% anti-trump, which is why it collapsed so dramatically and quickly bled away to other candidates.

You can look at the second choice rankings in the primaries to see the evidence for this. Almost no rubio supporters had Trump as a second choice, in comparison, a much higher percentage of Cruz/Jeb/Kasich voters had Trump as a second choice.

In addition, there would have been no establishment attempts to constantly rehabilitate rubio for his repeated mistakes, the only reason why that happened is because he was the anti-turmp candidate.

You're also forgetting that Jeb and Walker would be in the picture. The argument can be made that the reason why rubio/cruz outlasted Jeb/Walker was due to their Trump avoidance strategy at the beginning of the race. Both Jeb and Walker attacked Trump at the beginning, rubio/cruz didn't attack until very late.
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