Will Feinstein lose to another Democrat in 2018?

[Greedo punched first]

What do you think happens out of these four somewhat realistic scenarios?

[Kamala]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

[Holmes]

She will win decisively against a Republican. No serious Democrat will challenge her and the second place spot will go to some rando loser Republican.

[Mr. Smith]

DiFi's too tone deaf to retire, and too absurdly entrenched to lose (barring an even more leftist 2010 anyway).

I'd expect Orrin Hatch to be primaried first.

[Greedo punched first]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Exactly. Lou Correa got 70% against the more liberal Bao Nguyen. Jimmy Gomez will almost certainly win the race to replace Becerra. I think anti-establisment fervor is only extremely prevalent in Northern California, which is less populated than the LA and San Diego areas.

[Xing]

She'll win easily in 2018 regardless of who her opponent is.

[smoltchanov]

She'll win easily in 2018 regardless of who her opponent is.

+1

[The Arizonan]

She's going to be in the Senate until she drops dead like Bob Byrd and Daniel Inouye.

[PAK Man]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Feinstein is just three months older than Chuck Grassley, who just won another term.

[Mr. Smith]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Exactly. Lou Correa got 70% against the more liberal Bao Nguyen. Jimmy Gomez will almost certainly win the race to replace Becerra. I think anti-establisment fervor is only extremely prevalent in Northern California, which is less populated than the LA and San Diego areas.

To be fair, NorCal also has much better turnout.

[BuckeyeNut]

She's going to be in the Senate until she drops dead like Bob Byrd and Daniel Inouye.

[Figueira]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Exactly. Lou Correa got 70% against the more liberal Bao Nguyen. Jimmy Gomez will almost certainly win the race to replace Becerra. I think anti-establisment fervor is only extremely prevalent in Northern California, which is less populated than the LA and San Diego areas.

Jimmy Gomez is the progressive candidate.

[Greedo punched first]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Exactly. Lou Correa got 70% against the more liberal Bao Nguyen. Jimmy Gomez will almost certainly win the race to replace Becerra. I think anti-establisment fervor is only extremely prevalent in Northern California, which is less populated than the LA and San Diego areas.

Jimmy Gomez is the progressive candidate.

But he wasn't the Berniecrat, that was the even more liberal Arturo Carmona. This article says Berniecrats go bust in CA-34. This article calls Assemblyman Gomez a mainstream Democrat.
http://www.laweekly.com/news/in-californias-34th-congressional-district-special-election-jimmy-gomez-and-robert-ahn-are-headed-to-a-runoff-8098245

[hopper]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Feinstein is just three months older than Chuck Grassley, who just won another term.

I do think this should be Grassley's last term though. I am a fan of him but its time for somebody else to take his seat in 2022.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'd love to see Michael Eisen win (assuming that he's the only Dem challenger worth mentioning), but I highly doubt that would happen. He could possibly reach the top two, but I'm not sure that a lefty challenger could beat Feinstein in a statewide top-two election.

I doubt that we'll see an actual Democratic politician run against Feinstein. I also doubt she'll retire. She suffers from a severe case of rectal-cranial inversion.

Still not sure what Eisen will run as (Dem or Indy), but I answered that Feinstein will win a top two against a Dem. 2018 could be a wave year.

[BuckeyeNut]

Eisen should run for the House, not the Senate. Especially with 314 Action up and running.

[Vosem]

I don't think she will lose, but I think it's perfectly plausible to imagine the 2018 general election will be Feinstein against another Democrat. Even Eisen might be serious enough to make the runoff against her.

The problem is that any challenge against her will have to come from the left, but she has enough of a Favorite Daughter (favorite grandma?) appeal in the Bay Area that they'll vote for her against virtually anyone, and there can't be a successful left-wing campaign in California without winning the Bay Area. Eisen's best-case scenario probably looks a lot like the Clinton v. Sanders primary in this state (with Feinstein in the role of Clinton and Eisen in the role of Sanders).

[Figueira]

Although I think it's time for Feinstein to retire (she's the oldest Senator IIRC) and make room for the next generation of Democrats, if she doesn't, she'll easily win. She's just too much of an institution, and I don't think anti-establishment fervor is so prevalent in California that she'll get the boot.

Exactly. Lou Correa got 70% against the more liberal Bao Nguyen. Jimmy Gomez will almost certainly win the race to replace Becerra. I think anti-establisment fervor is only extremely prevalent in Northern California, which is less populated than the LA and San Diego areas.

Jimmy Gomez is the progressive candidate.

But he wasn't the Berniecrat, that was the even more liberal Arturo Carmona. This article says Berniecrats go bust in CA-34. This article calls Assemblyman Gomez a mainstream Democrat.
http://www.laweekly.com/news/in-californias-34th-congressional-district-special-election-jimmy-gomez-and-robert-ahn-are-headed-to-a-runoff-8098245

Arturo Carmona is not in the runoff. I'm guessing Robert Lee Ahn is, if anything, slightly more conservative than Gomez.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I don't think she will lose, but I think it's perfectly plausible to imagine the 2018 general election will be Feinstein against another Democrat. Even Eisen might be serious enough to make the runoff against her.

The problem is that any challenge against her will have to come from the left, but she has enough of a Favorite Daughter (favorite grandma?) appeal in the Bay Area that they'll vote for her against virtually anyone, and there can't be a successful left-wing campaign in California without winning the Bay Area. Eisen's best-case scenario probably looks a lot like the Clinton v. Sanders primary in this state (with Feinstein in the role of Clinton and Eisen in the role of Sanders).

A Feinstein-Eisen top two map would be interesting to see. Loretta Sanchez won 4 counties: Madera, Fresno, and maybe Glenn went with her based on water issues; Imperial will almost always vote for a candidate with a Hispanic name (I've noticed this with a lot of elections, including Dem primaries).

Feinstein is disliked by a large number of Californians, especially in the northern parts of the state, where Sanders did well, as you noted. Eisen could theoretically win a few of these rural counties, depending on absenteeism and just how much they hate Feinstein.

In 2012, Feinstein faced Elizabeh Emken; in the primary, it was 49.3% to 12.6%. In 2016, Kamala Harris beat Sanchez in the general (primary results: 39.9% to 18.9%). On the gubernatorial side, Jerry Brown beat Neel Kashkari in 2014 (primary results: 54.3% to 19.4%). To get second place, you probably don't have to break 20%. In a wide open field of no-name Republicans, a Dem can sweep in for second as seen in the 2016 senate race.

I wouldn't be surprised if Feinstein won over 50 counties (out of 58) in the primary. Eisen might not win any, but could still reach the top two (see Kashkari in 2014). Kern, Modoc, and Lassen often vote Republican in the primaries, so they're good bets for counties that Feinstein would lose in the primary. Perhaps a few others like Glenn and Colusa. I'm not sure where Eisen could win in the primary. Maybe some precincts in college towns and liberal havens, but getting a whole county in the primary will be a stretch.

As for the general, I would look to rural Bernie counties for Eisen wins. Maybe some north coastal counties like Humboldt and Mendocino.

Feinstein is 84ish years old. It's time for her to come home and enjoy a happy retirement.

[Greedo punched first]

In a Feinstein-Eisen runoff, I think Feinstein will win every Southern California county. Eisen, if he wins any counties, he will only win some Central and Northern counties, especially liberal rural ones. At best, Eisen might win a few rural counties and one or two Bay Area counties.

[SoLongAtlas]

No, she's a senator for life or chooses to retire (which in 2018 she will be 85 so that's likely not happening).