Would China intervene to help North Korea if war broke out?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is a tough call. On one hand,historically both North Korea and China have had a close relationship with economic ties and both being communist governments. The last time there was a war on the Korean peninsula, China leaped in to save North Korea. On the other hand, with the death of Mao's hardline communism and Deng Xiaoping taking over, China has now embraced technocracy, free trade with the west and foreign policy pragmatism. China today has serious issues with North Korea being basically a rogue hermit kingdom, and has communicated it's displeasure to North Korea. China has also condemned North Korean rocket tests and its nuclear weapons program.

China just like in the 1950's would not want the US allied South Korea and US forces stationed right on their border though. What do you think? I would vote No, as long as the US and SK, stayed 10-25km from the Yalu river frontier.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

No, they won't give up on their largest trading parting to support an almost worthless buffer state

[The Ex-Factor]

I would say that it is heavily contingent on who the 'aggressor' in the conflict is, and the circumstances by which the war broke out.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I would say that it is heavily contingent on who the 'aggressor' in the conflict is, and the circumstances by which the war broke out.

Yes.

It's hard to imagine China rushing to North Korea's aid after North Korea launched nukes at South Korea or Japan. Otherwise it' depend heavily on the overall world situation. If we go for a worst-case scenario (US-China relation deteriorating to the point any such place as Korea could be the igniting spark), that'd be totally diffrent story. It would also depend whether the conflict is localized or not.

But I don't believe there will be any way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No. Why should they?

[Blue3]

They probably would... but the key is how much, and how overtly?

[Beet]

I wonder what the poll would have looked like for the original Korean War, or Russia intervening in Austria-Hungary's invasion of Serbia.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

No, they won't give up on their largest trading parting to support an almost worthless buffer state

Yea North Korea is a total failed state, and close to zero economic value to the PRC. Weirdly enough, up until the mid 1970's North Korea had a higher GDP than South Korea. Now South Korea has 30-40 times the GDP of North Korea. Right now China also has strong trade links with South Korea and why would they want to ruin that?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No. However, they are very likely to roll their tanks in a few days after the regime is decapitated, order all "foreign troops" out, and take over the government to "ensure stability in the aftermath".

Then a few years into their occupation of North Korea, they'll begin making noises about the "reunification of Chinese Korea".

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I wonder what the poll would have looked like for the original Korean War, or Russia intervening in Austria-Hungary's invasion of Serbia.

I think without hindsight, people would have thought China was bluffing and would stay out of Korea. Hard to say with Russia after they lost to Japan in 1905. Russia was still chest thumping with it's Panslavism though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

They would certainly intervene, but not to help the current leadership of North Korea.

[dead0man]

Unless they bat sh**t crazy (they ain't) they'll try and play ball with the *"good guys" so they actually have some leverage when the shooting stops.





*are there good guys and bad guys in this one?  I know when I say "good guys/bad guys" many of the bleeding hearts like to hem and haw about things being grey, as if Hamas, Hezzies/Iran, Russia, Maduro, Castro, S.Arabia are in anyway grey

[Cashew]

Of course... China is absolutely willing to destroy to destroy the positive PR it built up as a respectable rising power if it means propping up a Stalinist dystopia. /s

[Crumpets]

Depends who started it.

[GoTfan]

Nope. Even the Chinese are getting tired of the DPRK these days. Moreover, the need for a buffer state is gone; China enjoys good relations with most of the world, and is poised to become the next major economic powerhouse. It's not going to risk that for a bankrupt nation with a population that's literally starving to death.

[SoLongAtlas]

To add to what I said earlier, China would be ok with watching US/RoK forces do it but would seriously step in north of the Yalu to prep for the refugee invasion/disaster/action movie that would then occur. It might push south but really that is an unknown atp.

[Tintrlvr]

They probably would... but the key is how much, and how overtly?

The thing is, anything short of overt war by China against the US/South Korea/Japan in that context would do absolutely nothing to prevent North Korea from collapsing under US/South Korean attack. This isn't a "supply them weapons and they'll fight a proxy war" scenario. The North Korean regime is not capable of non-state-actor-type tactics, and the US and South Korea are each individually far more militarily capable than, say, the Syrian government.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

They would certainly intervene. But once war breaks out, it would be to help themselves (and prevent a destabilizing flood of NK refugees).