Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Classic Conservative]

Reporting back...my friend says Estes is doing terrible in the remaining areas. Will update when possible. Thompson might win this!

Who is this friend? Is he Trump's anyomous birth certificate source?

I have a friend who volunteered for the Bernie Sanders campaign where I live in NYC, out in Kansas working on this campaign. He goes all over since he's totally committed. He'll be with the Ossoff and Quist campaign soon after this one.

Ok thanks.

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Early vote from Barber has Estes +27. Should be something like +43 Estes in final results if Estes wants to win.

[Confused Democrat]

How can it be Democrats cannibalizing themselves if the partisan breakdown of the EV slightly favored Republicans?

[Vosem]

Estes up 62-35 in Barber's 1st precinct

Barber was 82-13 Trump, so this is a 42-point swing assuming Barber County as a whole is 62-35.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

(switching to SOS data. AP is slower.)

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 2 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   14,270   61%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   329   1%   
    
R-Ron Estes   8,642   37%   

1 Sedgwick + 1 Barber are in.

[The Other Castro]

Estes up 62-35 in Barber's 1st precinct

Barber was 82-13 Trump, so this is a 42-point swing assuming Barber County as a whole is 62-35.

Consistent with the swings with the other counties so far.

[Crumpets]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

[Adam Griffin]

How can it be Democrats cannibalizing themselves if the partisan breakdown of the EV slightly favored Republicans?

Doesn't the district lean very strongly in registration/primary vote toward the Republicans?

[Devout Centrist]

We're reporting these results faster than either website

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes, but Clinton's campaign had a massive early vote operation, which probably cannibalized much of their Election Day vote.  Did Thompson have anything similar going on?

[heatcharger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes. I expect Estes to dominate the ED vote big time, but I am now quite curious about the what the final margin will end up being. Looks like a fair amount of Republicans crossed over.

[Xing]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

[Dr. Arch]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

Lmao, this.

Is this really happening?

[publicunofficial]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

I've missed this high.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're reporting these results faster than either website

We're more motivated.

[Angrie]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

[MAINEiac4434]

Haven't been this excited since November 8th...

[Devout Centrist]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

Eh, Senate is a stretch

[McGovernForPrez]

Stop getting me all excited, people. Now I have to commit to sitting at my computer for the next few hours pressing refresh instead of, you know, eating and doing taxes.

I've missed this high.

It's a really unique feeling. Might as well enjoy it while we can.

[Badger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes, but Clinton's campaign had a massive early vote operation, which probably cannibalized much of their Election Day vote.  Did Thompson have anything similar going on?

I don't know for sure, but I'm running the assumption that Democrats tend to concentrate heavily on early voting

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this seat is actually even competitive, then Democrats look poised to win control of the House and maybe even (somehow, despite the map) the Senate in the 2018 midterms.

There is a path to winning the senate. It's called forcing out McCaskill for Kander in Missouri, and winning a three-way (McMullin as Indy) in Utah.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can I just say that Sedgwick County desperately needs a web designer?

[OneJ]

I'm getting too excited as well.

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  
Early returns in Sedgwick County show strongest Trump precincts coming in weaker for Estes. Strongest Clinton stronger for Thompson. #KS04

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk
GO - Trump 68%, Estes 56%
DB42 - Trump 67%, Estes 57%
410 - Trump 67%, Estes 49%
GY01 - Trump 70%, Estes 53%
531 - Trump 67%, Estes 53%

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Some core Dem precincts in Wichita, still very early:
116 - Clinton 89%, Thomp 97%
117 - Clinton 90%, Thomp 98%
118 - Clinton 82%, Thomp 94%